An article in ISS Today expands on a recent report from the African Futures Project, a collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies, using IFs to assess Mozambique’s long-term development prospects. The discovery that Mozambique holds one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world has generated great optimism about the country’s future. But the recent sovereign debt crisis has cast serious doubt on the ability of the country to effectively manage the associated profits and better promote human development. Without a concerted effort to ensure transparent management of gas revenues and channel that windfall into investment in basic human development, the country will continue to face barriers to inclusive growth. Without basic service delivery and better budget management, gas reserves won’t help Mozambique’s poorest. The article was written by Zachary Donnenfeld (Korbel MA 2015), currently a researcher with ISS in Pretoria, and Alex Porter (Korbel MA 2014), currently a research affiliate at the Pardee Center.

A report from the African Futures Project, a collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies, uses IFs to assess Mozambique’s long-term development prospects. The discovery that Mozambique holds one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world has generated great optimism about the country’s future. But the recent sovereign debt crisis has cast serious doubt on the ability of the country to effectively manage the associated profits and better promote human development. The report concludes that without a concerted effort to ensure transparent management of gas revenues and channel that windfall into investment in basic human development, the country will continue to face barriers to inclusive growth. Without basic service delivery and better budget management, gas reserves won’t help Mozambique’s poorest. Report authors: Zachary Donnenfeld (Korbel MA 2015), a researcher with ISS in Pretoria, and Alex Porter (Korbel MA 2014), a research associate at the Pardee Center.

Porter, A., Bohl, D., Kwasi, S., Donnenfeld, Z., Cilliers, J. (2017, September). "Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development?" Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs.

A report from the African Futures Project, a collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies, uses IFs to assess Mozambique’s long-term development prospects. The discovery that Mozambique holds one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world has generated great optimism about the country’s future. But the recent sovereign debt crisis has cast serious doubt on the ability of the country to effectively manage the associated profits and better promote human development. The report concludes that without a concerted effort to ensure transparent management of gas revenues and channel that windfall into investment in basic human development, the country will continue to face barriers to inclusive growth. Without basic service delivery and better budget management, gas reserves won’t help Mozambique’s poorest.

Our director, Jonathan D Moyer, joined our partners at the Institute for Security Studies in Maputo on June 28, 2017, as they launched our latest co-authored report, "Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040." The report was prepared for Irish Aid, and follows from a broader regional report on Southern African development trends that we produced for USAID earlier this year. The report's authors, Alex Porter, David Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld and Jakkie Cilliers, used the International Futures platform to assess key trends and alternative scenarios related to Mozambique's development. The authors adjusted the IFs Base Case to better understand how advances in the country's natural gas production might affect Mozambique's development prospects to 2040, with a particular focus on how the country can better leverage the gains from its energy industry to foster inclusive growth and reduce poverty.

For more information on the report or the launch event, please visit the ISS website.

Mozambique,African Futures Project

Porter, Alex, David Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld, and Jakkie Cilliers. 2017.

"Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040." Developed by the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, South Africa, in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

Research Associate David Bohl spent three days (April 3-5) in Maputo, Mozambique, alongside our partners at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), to meet with representatives from Irish Aid. While in Mozambique, he and other researchers from the ISS also with met with USAID, the Canadian Embassy, and the Mozambique Ministry of Economy and Finance. The purpose of these meetings was to evaluate available data for use in country-level trend analysis, particularly those related to agriculture. These data will be used to update the International Futures (IFs) Current Path forecasts, which will be included in a report that explores long-term development trends and alternative scenarios in Mozambique.

David then traveled from Maputo to Pretoria, South Africa to attend the ISS launch of two development trends reports prepared for USAID: one focused specifically on South Africa and another that explores major trends and alternative scenarios related to governance, health, education, infrastructure and agriculture across 14 countries in the Southern Africa region. The launch event on April 6 was attended by representatives of various embassies, former diplomats, and USAID officials.

Bohl, David K., Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan, and Jessica Rettig. 2017.

"Development Trends Report for Southern Africa." Invited Research Paper for USAID. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

Irfan, Mohammod T., and Eli S. Margolese-Malin. 2012.