Hedden, S. (2015). "Gridlocked: A long-term look at South Africa's electricity sector." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver.

Electricity generation in South Africa is changing, but whether the electricity grid will be able to adapt to these changes is uncertain. This paper presents an alternative frame for the current electricity challenges by focusing on the electricity grid. Using the International Futures forecasting model, the African Futures Project has built three scenarios to 2050 to inform policymakers of the long-term implications of grid decisions. With coordinated planning, improved operational strategies and coherent policies, renewable energy can contribute significantly to the energy mix by 2050, help increase economic growth and benefit all South Africans. These interventions, however, will only be successful if there is a clear plan for the structure of the electricity sector.

Cilliers, J. and Camp, H. (2013). “Highway or Byway? The National Development Plan 2030.”

African Futures Paper No. 6. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to explore the feasibility of the central economic growth target in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. The authors conclude that the growth target (5.4% average annual growth in GDP) and an associated income per capita target are both very ambitious and will require a huge effort, clear leadership, and painful adjustments if they are to be achieved. They point out that other important targets in the Plan, such as in education and infrastructure, are achievable with lower rates of economic growth.

Hedden, S., Moyer, J.D., and Rettig, J. (2013). “Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?”

African Futures Paper No. 9. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

South Africa is poised to move forward with shale gas development through hydraulic fracturing or "fracking," exploring what experts believe to be the eighth largest shale gas reserve in the world. For a country that currently is almost wholly dependent on coal production, shale gas development could be a game-changer. Yet, the possible environmental impacts could also be devastating. The International Futures model is used to explore both the possibilities and some of the risks of fracking for South Africa.

Camp, H., Hedden, S., Bohl,D., Petersen, A., and Moyer, J.D. (2015). "Green Cape 2040: Towards a Smarter Grid."

Policy Brief 4 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

Electricity is crucial for the economic and social development of South Africa, but disruptive changes loom on the horizon. It is now clear that Eskom is unlikely to keep its electricity prices lower than those of alternative forms of electricity production, most notably small-scale photovoltaic (PV). This analysis finds that a significant amount of revenue will be lost to PV uptake, but that policies aimed at investing in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and other smart technologies, changing the tariff structure and encouraging economic growth from domestic PV manufacturing, can reduce this loss.

Margolese-Malin, E., Moyer, J.D., Rafa, M., and Irfan, M.T. (2015). "Enterprising Cape: Building an Inclusive and Vibrant Economy."

FuturesCape Policy Brief 3 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

The Western Cape faces two interrelated sets of development challenges in its efforts to become a more cohesive high-income society and economy. The first is unequal access to basic services and economic opportunities. The second is an economic environment with inadequate technology, skills, and governance to enable it to move rapidly from middle-income to high-income status. This FuturesCape policy brief analyses these two sets of challenges and explores some of the outcomes of pursuing policies designed to address them – first in isolation and then in combination. It compares these outcomes with a Base Case, which is how the future might be if no significant changes were made to the Western Cape’s current mix of policy strategies. Under such a Base Case scenario, the Western Cape won’t reach high-income status until around 2040.

van der Lingen, D., Sibusiso N., Rafa, M., and Camp, H. (2015). "Educating Cape 2040: Building Blocks of Future Prosperity."

FuturesCape Policy Brief 2 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

This brief explores potential development paths for Western Cape education through 2040. The Base Case forecast envisions steady improvements in the retention of learners across all grades and levels of education, but the relatively slow pace of improvement threatens to leave yet another generation of learners without a complete, high-quality education. To address this, the authors identify two policy options: an expansion of the Early Childhood Development initiative, and the introduction of specialised supplementary teacher training courses.

Bohl, David K., Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan, and Andrew C. Scott. 2017.

"Development Trends Report for South Africa." Invited Research Paper for USAID. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

Bohl, David K., Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan, and Jessica Rettig. 2017.

"Development Trends Report for Southern Africa." Invited Research Paper for USAID. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

Hedden, S. (2016). "Parched Prospects II: A Revised Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast for South Africa." African Futures Paper No. 16. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School o

It is likely that South Africa is overexploiting its water resources at the national level, as water withdrawals currently exceed reliable supply. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper forecasts that withdrawals in all three sectors (municipal, industrial and agricultural) will increase over the next 20 years. Proposed interventions for increasing supply and reducing demand are not enough to reconcile the gap between withdrawals and supply. More must be done to bring the South African water sector into balance and reconcile future national water withdrawals with future national supply.​​

Hedden, S. and Cilliers, J. (2014). “Parched Prospects: The Emerging Water Crisis in South Africa.”

African Futures Paper No. 11. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

South Africa is over-exploiting its freshwater resources, and water could be a large constraint on the implementation of the country's National Development Plan. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper models and forecasts water demand and supply until 2035, the period covered by the National Water Resource Strategy 2013. The authors’ research finds that the gap between demand and supply increases over this period, and that the solutions proposed by the Department of Water Affairs and Sanitation will not close the gap without additional, aggressive measures. The authors propose such measures for each sector of demand and each source of water supply.