Meisel, C. (2023, December 7). Rewind and Reconnoiter: China's Slowing Economy with Collin Meisel. War on the Rocks.

In 2019, Collin Meisel and Jonathan D. Moyer wrote “Preparing for China’s Rapid Rise and Decline” for War on the Rocks, looking at how “China’s rapid transition toward a downward trajectory will pose a unique set of national security challenges for the United States that could prove even more difficult than those posed by China’s rise.” In light of China’s economic slowdown, we asked Collin to look back on the piece and its recommendations. Read more by clicking on the link.

By: Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel & Austin S. Matthews (2023) Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image, Journal of Contemporary China, 32:140, 191-206, DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2022.2071879

In this article published in the Journal of Contemporary China, Assistant Professor and Pardee Center Director Dr. Jonathan Moyer, Pardee Center senior research associate Collin Meisel, and former Pardee Center research scientist Dr. Austin Matthews find that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition.

Where broad measures of material capabilities are concerned, the picture is clear: COVID-19 is closing the gap in relative capabilities for the U.S. and China and accelerating the U.S.-China transition. Through multiple long-term forecast scenarios using the International Futures tool, Research Associate Collin Meisel and Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer explain on the Duck of Minerva blog that China is likely to gain approximately one percent of global power relative to the U.S. by 2030 due to the economic and mortality impacts of COVID-19. This share of global power is similar to the relative capabilities of Turkey today.

Colling Meisel and Jonathan Moyer (2019, April 15). Preparing for China’s Rapid Rise and Decline. War on the Rocks.

The article examines Meisel and Moyer's forecast that China’s material power could rise rapidly over the coming decades and then begin declining around mid-century, driven in part by demographic aging, slower economic growth, and rising social expenditures. Drawing on Pardee forecasting and the Global Power Index, Meisel and Moyer compare China’s projected trajectory with longer-term U.S. demographic, economic, and military advantages. The authors argue that U.S. strategists should consider not only the challenges associated with China’s rise, but also those that could accompany a future period of relative decline. They discuss diplomatic, economic, military, migration, and foreign-aid policies that they believe could help the United States manage a changing balance of power while avoiding overreliance on military spending.

Cilliers, J., Schünemann, J., and Moyer, J.D. (2015). “Power and Influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa.”

African Futures Paper No. 14. Institute for Security Studies and Drederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Using the International Futures modeling system, this paper explores the changing power capabilities of Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa (the"Big Five") over the next 25 years. Ethiopia and Nigeria are forecast to increase their power capabilities, whereas Algeria, Egypt and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline. Two of the Big Five countries currently punch above their weight--one that is rising, Ethiopia, and another, South Africa, whose growth is stagnant. If Nigeria were able to take the necessary steps to realize far-reaching changes to the governance issues and social challenges that currently beset the country, it could become Africa’s lone superpower.