Hughes, B. B. (2025, July 22). Analysis of integrated global SDG pursuit: Challenges and progress. Sustainability, 17(15), 6672. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156672

How can we more fully analyze potential progress toward the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, globally and by country? Methodological challenges include (1) the comprehensiveness of issue coverage, integration of causal elaboration, and geographic detail in available models; (2) clear quantification of goal targets; and (3) specification of scenario interventions that connect meaningfully to the potential leverage of agents. This study uses a large-scale, global but country-based analytical system that tightly integrates multiple issue-area models to push against methodological challenges. It explores the prospects for progress toward selected quantified targets across all goals, using scenarios that consider potential agency-linked interventions relative to the Current Path (CP). The scenarios distinguish interventions focused on Human Development (HD) and natural system sustainability (NSS) plus a Combined SDG scenario (CSDG). Even with a large, integrated push through 2030 and 2050, the world in aggregate will fail to reach many targets, and a great many of the 188 countries represented will fall short. Also of interest is possible tension between the underlying thrusts of HD- and NSS-oriented interventions. Both the Current Path of key variables and intervention leverage constraints make NSS goals harder to reach than HD goals. Because synergies of action considerably outweigh trade-offs, however, complementarity better characterizes the two intervention sets.

Sahadevan, D., Irfan, M. T., Luo, C., Moyer, J. D., Mason, C., & Beynon, E. (2025). Charged for change: The case for renewable energy in climate action. UNDP; Pardee Institute for International Futures; Octopus Energy.

Unlocking the Potential of AfCFTA for Africa’s Young Population. (2025, May). Unicef.org. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/reports/unlocking-potential-afcfta-africas-young-population

‌UNICEF and the Pardee Institute recently launched a collaborative report on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and its implications for Africa’s young population, led by Pardee researchers, including Deva Sahadevan, Taylor Hanna, and Jonathan Moyer.

Using our International Futures (IFs) model, the report compares three paths: no AfCFTA, AfCFTA as agreed, and AfCFTA plus strategic investments in education, welfare transfers, and research & development, all the way to 2063. The report recommends that countries put children at the center by investing AfCFTA revenue in education, health, nutrition, and green jobs, while building strong social safety nets. They also need to manage risks like job shifts, environmental impacts, and child protection issues.

March 2025 | Skopje, North Macedonia

The Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures at the University of Denver recently led a week-long training in Skopje, North Macedonia. The training helped government officials, researchers, and development practitioners use the Institute’s flagship International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to support the country’s National Development Strategy (2024–2044).

Taylor Hanna, Associate Director of Development Analysis at the Pardee Institute, led the training. Eleven participants joined from the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, the Faculty of Economics in Skopje, the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of North Macedonia, the General Secretariat of the Government, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) North Macedonia. In addition, Aleksandar Stojkov of Ss. Cyril and Methodius University provided local support for the workshop.

The training builds upon Pardee's longstanding collaboration with UNDP North Macedonia. After supporting the development of the country's National Development Strategy using the International Futures model, the Institute returned to help ensure that local institutions have the capacity to use IFs independently for evidence-based planning, policy analysis, and long-term forecasting.

Throughout the week, participants received hands-on instruction covering installation of the IFs platform, data review and validation, scenario development, and policy analysis. They also updated North Macedonia’s national data in the model. Then, working together, they refined development scenarios based on feedback and discussion during the workshop.

As a result, government and academic partners can better monitor progress toward the goals in the National Development Strategy. They can also explore alternative development pathways and bring long-term forecasting into public decision-making.

The activity was conducted in partnership with UNDP North Macedonia as part of the "Support to Public Finance Management Reform" project, funded by the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic through the "Public and Private Finance for Development Programme."

Moyer, J., Sahadevan, D. (2024, December). Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/media/10201/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Navigate-Future-Report-2024.pdf

As we move through the twenty-first century, humanity faces a complex array of challenges. These mutually reinforcing issues include climate change and geopolitical instability, as well as persistent socioeconomic disparities that have profound implications for children’s well-being. At such a critical crossroads, policy choices we make today will determine the welfare of future generations. In their interest, addressing this complex web of collective action problems demands a broad-based, integrated analysis focused on comprehensive and equitable solutions.

Carbon bargain: The energy transition will be much cheaper than you think. (2024, November 16). The Economist.

Abidoye, B., Banda, A., Baumwoll, J., Carman, R., Moz-Christofoletti, M., Orlic, E., Patterson, L. (2024). Advancing the SDG Push with equitable low-carbon pathways. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/publications/advancing-sdg-push-equitable-low-carbon-pathways

The ‘SDG Push x NDC 3.0’ research, a collaboration between UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Center, outlines a framework for a fair, low-carbon energy transition that considers the needs of both wealthy and lower-income nations. The report updates the second flagship publication, Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examining an integrated set of policy strategies that accelerates climate actions while promoting human development. By supporting equitable access to energy, green investments, and digital infrastructure, it aims to foster inclusive, sustainable growth and align with the Paris Agreement targets.

The research finds that an additional 60 million people could be lifted from poverty by 2030, and upwards of 175 million people by 2050, through these ambitious, yet feasible policy choices. In addition, nine out of ten low-human development countries could make significant strides towards improving their current development outcomes by 2050 while carbon emissions are reduced by two-thirds by 2050.

Hanna, T., Hughes, B.B., Irfan, M.T., Bohl, D.K., Solórzano et al. (2024, April 16). Sustainable Development Goal Attainment in the Wake of COVID-19: Simulating an Ambitious Policy Push. Sustainability. 3309. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083309

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the world was not on course to meet key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Some significant degree of additional effort was needed before the pandemic, and the challenge is now greater. Analyzing the prospects for meeting these goals requires attention to the combined effects of the pandemic and such additional impetus. This article assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on progress toward the SDGs and explores strategies to recover and accelerate development. Utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and recognizing the near impossibility of meeting the goals by 2030, three scenarios are examined through to 2050: A pre-COVID-19 trajectory (No COVID-19), the current path influenced by the pandemic (Current Path), and a transformative SDG-focused approach prioritizing key policy strategies to accelerate outcomes (SDG Push). The pandemic led to a rise in extreme poverty and hunger, with recovery projected to be slow. The SDG Push scenario effectively addresses this, surpassing the Current Pathand achieving significant global improvements in poverty, malnutrition, and human development by 2050 even relative to the No COVID-19 path. The findings emphasize the need for integrated, transformative actions to propel sustainable development.

Moyer, J. D. (2024, February 16). A double-edged sword into a plowshare: Analyzing geopolitical implications of alternative socioeconomic development pathways. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.002

The summary discusses global challenges to sustainable development, emphasizing the need to balance human development, climate change, and geopolitics. It focuses on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs),which are scenarios used in climate research to address adaptation and mitigation challenges. Using the International Futures model, the study examines the implications of alternative socioeconomic development on the future distribution of national power and international relations. The findings suggest that a sustainable development pathway may lead to geopolitical destabilization, causing transitions in regional and global power. The paper highlights the importance of integrating international relations drivers into SSPs and urges policymakers to consider both promoting sustainable development and addressing implications for geopolitical development.