Rafa, Mickey, Singumbe Muyeba, Jonathan Moyer, and Taylor Hanna. 2021.

"The future of Zambian poverty to 2060: assessing national and sub-national trends across scenarios." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO. Report for Chronic Poverty Advisory Network.

Gao, Jing, and Brian C. O'Neill. 2020. "Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Nature Communications 11, 2302 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15788-7

Hanna, Taylor, David K. Bohl, Mickey Rafa, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2021.

"Assessing the Impact of Conflict on Development in North-East Nigeria." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO. Report for United Nations Development Programme.

Gao, Jing, and Brian C. O'Neill. 2019. “Data-driven spatial modeling of global long-term urban land development: The SELECT model.” Environmental Modelling & Software 119 (458-471) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.015.

Camp, H., Hedden, S., Bohl,D., Petersen, A., and Moyer, J.D. (2015). "Green Cape 2040: Towards a Smarter Grid."

Policy Brief 4 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

Electricity is crucial for the economic and social development of South Africa, but disruptive changes loom on the horizon. It is now clear that Eskom is unlikely to keep its electricity prices lower than those of alternative forms of electricity production, most notably small-scale photovoltaic (PV). This analysis finds that a significant amount of revenue will be lost to PV uptake, but that policies aimed at investing in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and other smart technologies, changing the tariff structure and encouraging economic growth from domestic PV manufacturing, can reduce this loss.

Margolese-Malin, E., Moyer, J.D., Rafa, M., and Irfan, M.T. (2015). "Enterprising Cape: Building an Inclusive and Vibrant Economy."

FuturesCape Policy Brief 3 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

The Western Cape faces two interrelated sets of development challenges in its efforts to become a more cohesive high-income society and economy. The first is unequal access to basic services and economic opportunities. The second is an economic environment with inadequate technology, skills, and governance to enable it to move rapidly from middle-income to high-income status. This FuturesCape policy brief analyses these two sets of challenges and explores some of the outcomes of pursuing policies designed to address them – first in isolation and then in combination. It compares these outcomes with a Base Case, which is how the future might be if no significant changes were made to the Western Cape’s current mix of policy strategies. Under such a Base Case scenario, the Western Cape won’t reach high-income status until around 2040.

van der Lingen, D., Sibusiso N., Rafa, M., and Camp, H. (2015). "Educating Cape 2040: Building Blocks of Future Prosperity."

FuturesCape Policy Brief 2 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

This brief explores potential development paths for Western Cape education through 2040. The Base Case forecast envisions steady improvements in the retention of learners across all grades and levels of education, but the relatively slow pace of improvement threatens to leave yet another generation of learners without a complete, high-quality education. To address this, the authors identify two policy options: an expansion of the Early Childhood Development initiative, and the introduction of specialised supplementary teacher training courses.

Wang, X., Rafa, M., Moyer, J.D., Li, J., Scheer, J., and Sutton, P. 2019. "Estimation and Mapping of Sub-National GDP in Uganda Using NPP-VIIRS Imagery." Remote Sensing 11(2): 163. doi: 10.3390/rs11020163

Rafa, Mickey, Jonathan Moyer, Xuantong Wang, and Paul Sutton. 2018.

"Using Nightlights for Poverty Analysis in Uganda." Invited Policy Brief for USAID. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.