Preparing for China’s Rapid Rise and Decline

Colling Meisel and Jonathan Moyer (2019, April 15). Preparing for China’s Rapid Rise and Decline. War on the Rocks.

The article examines Meisel and Moyer's forecast that China’s material power could rise rapidly over the coming decades and then begin declining around mid-century, driven in part by demographic aging, slower economic growth, and rising social expenditures. Drawing on Pardee forecasting and the Global Power Index, Meisel and Moyer compare China’s projected trajectory with longer-term U.S. demographic, economic, and military advantages. The authors argue that U.S. strategists should consider not only the challenges associated with China’s rise, but also those that could accompany a future period of relative decline. They discuss diplomatic, economic, military, migration, and foreign-aid policies that they believe could help the United States manage a changing balance of power while avoiding overreliance on military spending.