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Pardee History
Founding the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures
Founded by Barry Hughes with the support of Fred Pardee, the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures for International Futures continues developing its flagship tool, the International Futures modeling system.
IFs, the flagship tool of the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, is an open-source, integrated global modeling system that is continuously updated and maintained. In 1980, Barry Hughes developed the first generation of the IFs modeling system. Since then, the team at the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures has overseen seven generations of IFs development.
Written in FORTRAN & available for use on mainframe computers through the University of Iowa's CONDUIT system, this first generation of IFs was primarily an education tool used by students. However, it was also used by the U.S. Foreign Service Institute for a mid-career training program.
The second generation of IFs moved to early microcomputers in 1985, using the DOS platform. It was a simplified version of the original IFs system without regional or country differentiation.
The second generation of IFs moved to early microcomputers in 1985, using the DOS platform. It was a simplified version of the original IFs system without regional or country differentiation.
The fourth generation took shape during the early 2000s. It was heavily influenced by the usage of the modeling system for policy analysis, including its uses in the TERRA project and work on the Global Trends reports. This generation had a heavy emphasis on enhanced usability, including the creation of a new tree structure and guided use mode for scenario creation and management.
The fifth generation of IFs (from 2004-2009) had three major thrusts:
The sixth generation of IFs revolved around the development of the Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series. The PPHP volumes, with their focus on major human development systems, spurred the further enhancement of the model’s major subsystems, especially population, economic (especially poverty representation), education, health, infrastructure, and governance. The supporting documentation required for the PPHP series also gave rise to efforts to create the most detailed documentation of the model to date.
The seventh generation officially began in 2014. This generation emerged after the PPHP volumes and with the advent of a variety of new projects, including wider support for provincial and state breakdowns, new means of forecasting diplomatic and power interactions, and enhanced representations in many of the IFs modules. Central to the institute's efforts, however, are continuous improvements in the existing elements of the model and their usability. The sixth generation greatly strengthened the web-based version and it will increasingly become central to our work in the current generation.
The current generation is primarily distinguished by a transition in the underlying coding language, shifting from Visual Basic 6 to Visual Basic .NET. This shift has facilitated the integration of both online and standalone user interfaces, streamlining the process of implementing interface modifications. Moreover, the adoption of this new underlying language and user interface has empowered developers to leverage a broader range of third-party applications and dynamic visualization tools, while aligning with Microsoft-supported languages.Â
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