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Publications

Publications that connect evidence, models, and policy questions.
Pardee publications examine long-term change across development, climate, conflict, diplomacy, and geopolitical influence. Using data, integrated models, scenario-based analysis, and transparent methods, our researchers study questions that rarely fit within one sector, country, or time horizon.

The collection includes peer-reviewed articles, reports, briefs, commentary, model documentation, and other research outputs designed for both scholarship and policy use. Researchers can examine methods, evidence, and assumptions, while policy and practitioner communities can use the analysis to compare risks, test scenarios, and understand how choices may unfold across systems and time.

Use this page to search Pardee publications by keyword, topic, author, document type, research focus, region, country, sponsor, and date.

July 12, 2026

Quantifying Conflict & Climate Action in Yemen

Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. (2026). Quantifying Conflict & Climate Action in Yemen. University of Denver. In the fog of one of the 21st century’s most challenging conflicts, the […]

January 13, 2025

From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index

Meisel, C. (2025, January 13). From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/from-myanmar-to-gaza-ukraine-to-sudan-2024-was-another-grim-year-accord

December 12, 2024

In Syria, be careful what you wish for

Meisel, C. (2024, December 12). In Syria, be careful what you wish for. Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/in-syria-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/

December 10, 2024

Land degradation and human development in Yemen

Hanna, T., Kruczkiewicz, A., Owen, M. (2024, December 10). Land degradation and human development in Yemen. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/yemen/publications/land-degradation-and-human-development-yemen This study, “Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen,” […]

August 20, 2024

Bearing witness: Introducing the Perceived Mass Atrocities Dataset (PMAD)

Meisel, C., Moyer, J. D., Matthews, A. S., Kaplan, O., Byrnes, R., Benjumea, K., Cribb, P., & Van Son, C. (2024, August 20). Bearing witness: Introducing the Perceived Mass Atrocities […]

July 1, 2024

Beyond Ukraine: Forecasting the Future of War - Chapter by Collin Meisel

Sweijs, T., & Michaels, J. (2024, July). "Forecasting the future of war" in Beyond Ukraine: Debating the future of war. (pp. 287–303). Oxford University Press. Collin Meisel publishes a book […]

July 1, 2024

Yemen voluntary national review

Yemen voluntary national review. (2024, July). Contributions from Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, and Jonathan D. Moyer. Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation. https://hlpf.un.org/countries/yemen/voluntary-national-reviews-2024 Yemen has been experiencing an exceptional phase […]

January 8, 2024

Scanning the horizon: If the future is unknowable, why bother with forecasting?

Meisel, C., & Petry, C. (2024, January 8). Scanning the horizon: If the future is unknowable, why bother with forecasting? Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/scanning-the-horizon-if-the-future-is-unknowable-why-bother-with-forecasting/

November 27, 2023

Do safety expectations affect the location strategies of large service delivery INGOs?

Moyer, J. D., Matthews, A. S., Evans, J., McPhee, J., & Kettlun, W. (2023, November 27). Do safety expectations affect the location strategies of large service delivery INGOs? International Interactions, […]

August 6, 2023

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is boosting the potential for U.S. influence abroad

Meisel, C., Moyer, J., Burrows, M. J., & Petry, C. (2023, August 6). The Russian invasion of Ukraine is boosting the potential for U.S. influence abroad. Lawfare. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/russian-invasion-ukraine-boosting-potential-us-influence-abroad In this […]

May 25, 2023

Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios

Full Citation: Meisel, Collin J., Caleb L. Petry, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Mathew Burrows. n.d. “Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios.” Stimson. Putin’s invasion and Xi’s […]

May 1, 2023

“Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty”

By: Moyer, J. D. (2023a). Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty. World Development, 165, 106188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106188 A new publication uses the International Futures Platform […]

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