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Publications

Publications that connect evidence, models, and policy questions.
Pardee publications examine long-term change across development, climate, conflict, diplomacy, and geopolitical influence. Using data, integrated models, scenario-based analysis, and transparent methods, our researchers study questions that rarely fit within one sector, country, or time horizon.

The collection includes peer-reviewed articles, reports, briefs, commentary, model documentation, and other research outputs designed for both scholarship and policy use. Researchers can examine methods, evidence, and assumptions, while policy and practitioner communities can use the analysis to compare risks, test scenarios, and understand how choices may unfold across systems and time.

Use this page to search Pardee publications by keyword, topic, author, document type, research focus, region, country, sponsor, and date.

June 11, 2026

What America's demographic future means for Africa and Europe

Collin Meisel. (2026, June 11). What America's demographic future means for Africa and Europe. Megatrends Afrika Spotlight No. 71. https://www.megatrends-afrika.de/en/publication/mta-spotlight-71-us-demographic-decline-could-reshape-the-global-balance-of-power Demographic shifts in the United States could reshape its relationships […]

May 11, 2026

What happens when the US population peaks?

Meisel, C. (2026, May 11). What happens when the US population peaks? The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/5868017-shrinking-us-population-trends/ In a new opinion piece for The Hill, Collin Meisel, director of analysis at the […]

September 9, 2025

We tracked every overseas trip by world leaders since the end of the Cold War – here’s what we found

McKee, K., & Meisel, C. (2025). We tracked every overseas trip by world leaders since the end of the Cold War – here’s what we found. The Conversation. https://doi.org/10.64628/aai.5xf7pq6p5 

August 21, 2025

Right-sizing Africa’s “China challenge”

Meisel, C. (2025, August 21). Right-sizing Africa’s “China challenge”. ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/Right-sizing-Africas-China-challenge

April 16, 2025

Why Russia Isn’t Doomed

Burrows, M., Meisel, C. (2025, April 16). Why Russia Isn’t Doomed. The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-russia-isnt-doomed   ‌

January 13, 2025

From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index

Meisel, C. (2025, January 13). From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/from-myanmar-to-gaza-ukraine-to-sudan-2024-was-another-grim-year-accord

December 12, 2024

In Syria, be careful what you wish for

Meisel, C. (2024, December 12). In Syria, be careful what you wish for. Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/in-syria-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/

July 24, 2024

In brief: China’s third plenum

Meisel, C., Lin, B., Greitens, S.C., & Shugart, T. (2024, July 24). In brief: China’s third plenum. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/ 07/in-brief-chinas-third-plenum Last week, the Chinese Communist Party held […]

May 8, 2024

In brief: The U.S-Chinese relationship

Meisel, C., Studeman, M., Sun, Y., & Daniels, R. (2024, May 8). In brief: U.S-Chinese relationship. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/05/in-brief-the-u-s-chinese-relationship/  

April 9, 2024

Opinion: There is more to NATO burden sharing than the 2% spending dogma

Meisel, C. (2024, April 9). Opinion: There is more to NATO burden sharing than the 2% spending dogma. Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2024/04/09/there-is-more-to-nato-burden-sharing-than-the-2-spending-dogma As the NATO alliance prepares to gather this summer to celebrate […]

February 20, 2024

Accelerating change but not necessarily an inflection point

Meisel, C. (2024, February 20). Accelerating Change But Not Necessarily an Inflection Point. Stimson. https://www.stimson.org/2024/accelerating-change-but-not-necessarily-an-inflection-point/ Today’s world is characterized by enormous change — but also tremendous continuity. By overemphasizing the […]

January 8, 2024

Scanning the horizon: If the future is unknowable, why bother with forecasting?

Meisel, C., & Petry, C. (2024, January 8). Scanning the horizon: If the future is unknowable, why bother with forecasting? Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/scanning-the-horizon-if-the-future-is-unknowable-why-bother-with-forecasting/

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