African Futures

The African Futures Project is an ongoing collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Headquartered in Pretoria, South Africa, ISS is a pan-African think-tank focused on issues of human security. The Pardee Center and ISS collaborate on research projects and publications across a broad range of human security and human development topics, as indicated below.
 

  • Building the Future: Infrastructure in Nigeria until 2040
    Building the Future: Infrastructure in Nigeria until 2040


    This report published by the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) explores a series of ambitious but realistic interventions to improve economic growth and development in Nigeria. Authors Julia Schunemann of ISS and Alex Porter, Research Associate at the Pardee Center, find that Nigeria’s basic physical infrastructure deficit severely undermines the country’s prospects for economic growth and development. Meanwhile, rapid population growth in Nigeria will compound the challenge of inadequate basic infrastructure. Building the Future: Infrastructure in Nigeria until 2040 uses IFs to take an integrated, longterm approach to accelerating Nigeria's infrastructure development. The report was launched at an event in Abuja on December 6, co-hosted by ISS and the delegation of the European Union to Nigeria.

    Authors: Alex Porter and Julia Schunemann

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    Porter, Alex and Julia Schunemann. 2017. "Building the Future: Infrastructure in Nigeria until 2040." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

  • Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's Prospects to 2030
    Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's Prospects to 2030


    Few African countries have developed as rapidly as Ethiopia over the past 25 years and that economic growth has also been paired with a sizeable expansion of service delivery. Nonetheless, Ethiopians continue to suffer from some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any country in Africa – and indeed the world. This policy brief summarises the results from a more comprehensive study that explores options for the Government of Ethiopia and its development partners to advance human development and economic growth between now and 2030.

    Authors: Zachary Donnenfeld, Alex Porter, Jakkie Cilliers, Jonathan D Moyer, Andrew C Scott, Joel Maweni, and Ciara Aucoin

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    Donnenfeld, Zachary, Alex Porter, Jakkie Cilliers, Jonathan D Moyer, Andrew C Scott, Joel Maweni, and Ciara Aucoin. 2017. "Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's Prospects to 2030." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

  • Can Natural Gas Improve Mozambique’s Development?
    Can natural gas improve Mozambique development?


    A report from the African Futures Project, a collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies, uses IFs to assess Mozambique’s long-term development prospects. The discovery that Mozambique holds one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world has generated great optimism about the country’s future. But the recent sovereign debt crisis has cast serious doubt on the ability of the country to effectively manage the associated profits and better promote human development. The report concludes that without a concerted effort to ensure transparent management of gas revenues and channel that windfall into investment in basic human development, the country will continue to face barriers to inclusive growth. Without basic service delivery and better budget management, gas reserves won’t help Mozambique’s poorest.

    Authors: Alex Porter, Dave Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld, and Jakkie Cilliers.

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    Porter, Alex, Dave Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld, and Jakkie Cilliers. 2017. "Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development?" Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

  • Envisioning a Healthy Future: Africa's Shifting Burden of Disease
    Envisioning a Healthy Future: Africa's Shifting Burden of Disease


    Africa has the highest prevalence of communicable diseases in the world. In 2015, more than three times as many people died from AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than ten times as many people died from malaria as in the rest of the world combined. Non-communicable diseases are also increasing on the continent. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore the effects on human development of Africa’s achieving targets 3.3 and 3.4 of the Sustainable Development Goals: respectively, eradication of selected communicable diseases, and a reduction in premature deaths from non-communicable diseases by one-third by 2030.

    Authors: Kanishka Narayan and Zachary Donnenfeld

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    Narayan, Kanishka, and Zachary Donnenfeld. 2016. "Envisioning a Healthy Future: Africa's Shifting Burden of Disease." African Futures Paper No. 18. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Parched Prospects II: A Revised Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast for South Africa
    Parched Prospects II: A Revised Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast for South Africa


    It is likely that South Africa is overexploiting its water resources at the national level, as water withdrawals currently exceed reliable supply. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper forecasts that withdrawals in all three sectors (municipal, industrial and agricultural) will increase over the next 20 years. Proposed interventions for increasing supply and reducing demand are not enough to reconcile the gap between withdrawals and supply. More must be done to bring the South African water sector into balance and reconcile future national water withdrawals with future national supply.​​

    Author: Steven Hedden

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    Steve Hedden. 2016. "Parched Prospects II: A Revised Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast for South Africa." African Futures Paper No. 16. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Refreshing Africa’s Future: Prospects for Achieving Universal WASH Access by 2030
    Refreshing Africa’s Future: Prospects for Achieving Universal WASH Access by 2030


    Access to water, sanitation and hygiene is indispensable to development, but what will it take for Africa to achieve universal access in 15 years? This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore Sustainable Development Goal 6, which promises water, sanitation and hygiene to all by 2030. It finds that Africa is not on track to meet this goal. In response, it uses two alternative scenarios to assess the costs and benefits associated with accelerating access. The first models an aggressive push toward universal access and the second a more moderate approach that advances access to water, sanitation and hygiene based on countries’ 2015 baselines.

    Authors: Alanna Markle and Zachary Donnenfeld​

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    Markle, Alanna and Zachary Donnenfeld. 2016. "Refreshing Africa’s Future: Prospects for Achieving Universal WASH Access by 2030." African Futures Paper No. 17. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Educating Cape 2040: Building Blocks of Future Prosperity
    Educating Cape 2040: Building Blocks of Future Prosperity


    This brief explores potential development paths for Western Cape education through 2040. The Base Case forecast envisions steady improvements in the retention of learners across all grades and levels of education, but the relatively slow pace of improvement threatens to leave yet another generation of learners without a complete, high-quality education. To address this, the authors identify two policy options: an expansion of the Early Childhood Development initiative, and the introduction of specialised supplementary teacher training courses. 

    Authors: Dale van der Lingen, Sibusiso Nonyati, Mickey Rafa, and Hanna Camp​

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    Lingen, Dale van der, Sibusiso Nonyati, Mickey Rafa, and Hanna Camp. 2015. "Educating Cape 2040: Building Blocks of Future Prosperity." FuturesCape Policy Brief 2 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

  • Enterprising Cape: Building an Inclusive and Vibrant Economy
    Enterprising Cape: Building an Inclusive and Vibrant Economy


    The Western Cape faces two interrelated sets of development challenges in its efforts to become a more cohesive high-income society and economy. The first is unequal access to basic services and economic opportunities. The second is an economic environment with inadequate technology, skills, and governance to enable it to move rapidly from middle-income to high-income status. This FuturesCape policy brief analyses these two sets of challenges and explores some of the outcomes of pursuing policies designed to address them – first in isolation and then in combination. It compares these outcomes with a Base Case, which is how the future might be if no significant changes were made to the Western Cape’s current mix of policy strategies. Under such a Base Case scenario, the Western Cape won’t reach high-income status until around 2040.

    Authors: Eli Margolese-Malin, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa and Mohammod T. Irfan

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    Margolese-Malin, Eli, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Mohammod T. Irfan. 2015. "Enterprising Cape: Building an Inclusive and Vibrant Economy." FuturesCape Policy Brief 3 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

  • Green Cape 2040: Towards a Smarter Grid
    Green Cape 2040: Towards a Smarter Grid


    Electricity is crucial for the economic and social development of South Africa, but disruptive changes loom on the horizon. It is now clear that Eskom is unlikely to keep its electricity prices lower than those of alternative forms of electricity production, most notably small-scale photovoltaic (PV). This analysis finds that a significant amount of revenue will be lost to PV uptake, but that policies aimed at investing in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and other smart technologies, changing the tariff structure and encouraging economic growth from domestic PV manufacturing, can reduce this loss. 

    Authors: Hanna Camp, Steve Hedden, David Bohl, Aa-ishah Petersen, and Jonathan D. Moyer

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    Camp, Hanna, Steve Hedden, David Bohl, Aa-ishah Petersen, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2015. "Green Cape 2040: Towards a Smarter Grid." FuturesCape Policy Brief 4 of 2015. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

  • Gridlocked: A Long-term Look at South Africa's Electricity Sector
    Gridlocked: A long-term look at South Africa's electricity sector


    Electricity generation in South Africa is changing, but whether the electricity grid will be able to adapt to these changes is uncertain. This paper presents an alternative frame for the current electricity challenges by focusing on the electricity grid. Using the International Futures forecasting model, the African Futures Project has built three scenarios to 2050 to inform policymakers of the long-term implications of grid decisions. With coordinated planning, improved operational strategies and coherent policies, renewable energy can contribute significantly to the energy mix by 2050, help increase economic growth and benefit all South Africans. These interventions, however, will only be successful if there is a clear plan for the structure of the electricity sector.

    Author: Steve Hedden

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    Hedden, Steve. 2015. "Gridlocked: A long-term look at South Africa's electricity sector." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

  • Power and Influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa
    Power and Influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa


    Using the International Futures modeling system, this paper explores the changing power capabilities of Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa (the"Big Five") over the next 25 years. Ethiopia and Nigeria are forecast to increase their power capabilities, whereas Algeria, Egypt and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline. Two of the Big Five countries currently punch above their weight--one that is rising, Ethiopia, and another, South Africa, whose growth is stagnant. If Nigeria were able to take the necessary steps to realize far-reaching changes to the governance issues and social challenges that currently beset the country, it could become Africa’s lone superpower.

    Authors: Jakkie Cilliers, Julia Schünemann, and Jonathan D. Moyer

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    Cilliers, Jakkie, Julia Schünemann, and Jonathan D. Moyer. March 2015. “Power and Influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa.” African Futures Paper No. 14. Institute for Security Studies and Drederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Reasonable Goals for Reducing Poverty in Africa: Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063
    Reasonable Goals for Reducing Poverty in Africa: Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063


    The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component in the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals' process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Using 2011 as the currency reference year, the International Futures forecasting system is used to explore that goal. The research suggests that even when a package of aggressive poverty reduction interventions is modeled, many African states are unlikely to make the target by 2030. The authors argue in favour of differentiated country-level targets and also of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030 and below 4% by 2045.

    Authors: Sara Turner, Jakkie Cilliers, and Barry B. Hughes

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    Turner, Sara, Jakkie Cilliers, and Barry B. Hughes. February 2015. “Reasonable Goals for Reducing Poverty in Africa: Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063.” African Futures Paper No. 13. (update of AFP No. 10 using 2011 as the currency reference year). Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Turning Vision into Reality: Namibia's Long-term Development Outlook
    Turning vision into reality: Namibia's long-term development outlook


    Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, this paper first presents a plausible long-term population forecast for Namibia. This forecast is then used to assess key targets from the National Development Plan (NDP4) and Vision 2030, Namibia’s long-term development strategy. The paper then plots three scenarios to chart Namibia’s potential progress. Under the Current Path scenario, the economy continues to grow, but many targets remain out of reach. The Infrastructure Access scenario maps a future where Namibia invests heavily in infrastructure development, but this translates into less investment in other vital sectors. Finally, the Leave No Namibian Out scenario sees overall increases in human development and economic growth, along with a slight reduction in inequality by 2030, but deep-seated structural challenges remain.

    Author: Steve Hedden

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    Hedden, Steve. 2015. "Turning vision into reality: Namibia's long-term development outlook." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

  • Parched Prospects: The Emerging Water Crisis in South Africa
    Parched Prospects: The Emerging Water Crisis in South Africa


    South Africa is over-exploiting its freshwater resources, and water could be a large constraint on the implementation of the country's National Development Plan. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper models and forecasts water demand and supply until 2035, the period covered by the National Water Resource Strategy 2013. The authors’ research finds that the gap between demand and supply increases over this period, and that the solutions proposed by the Department of Water Affairs and Sanitation will not close the gap without additional, aggressive measures. The authors propose such measures for each sector of demand and each source of water supply.

    Authors: Steve Hedden and Jakkie Cilliers

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    Hedden, Steve, and Jakkie Cilliers. September 2014. “Parched Prospects: The Emerging Water Crisis in South Africa.” African Futures Paper No. 11. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Reducing Poverty in Africa: Realistic Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063
    Reducing Poverty in Africa: Realistic Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063


    The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component of the post-2015 MDG process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore that goal, and finds that even with aggressive interventions, many African states are unlikely to make the target by 2030. In addition to the use of country-level targets, this paper argues in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 using 2005 as the currency reference year (15% using 2011 purchasing power parity), and to below 3% by 2063.

    Authors: Sara Turner, Jakkie Cilliers, and Barry B. Hughes

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    Turner, Sara, Jakkie Cilliers, and Barry B. Hughes. August 2014. “Reducing Poverty in Africa: Realistic Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063.” African Futures Paper No 10 (using 2005 as the currency reference year). Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Why Strategic Foresight Matters for Africa
    Why Strategic Foresight Matters for Africa


    Over the past five decades, Africa has experienced great transition and change. Many positive developments are taking shape on the continent. Overall, human development is improving, conflict has declined, and sustained economic growth presents genuine opportunities for development. Yet, many structural challenges persist, and the pressure to tackle these simultaneously is probably the most complex task the continent faces today. Africa needs to deepen its strategic reflection in order to anticipate the future with confidence. It must think more systematically about long-term trends and plan for the future if it is to take advantage of opportunities arising from economic growth.

    Author: Julia Schünemann

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    Schünemann, Julia. October 2014. “Why Strategic Foresight Matters for Africa.” African Futures Paper No 12. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?
    Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?


    South Africa is poised to move forward with shale gas development through hydraulic fracturing or "fracking," exploring what experts believe to be the eighth largest shale gas reserve in the world. For a country that currently is almost wholly dependent on coal production, shale gas development could be a game-changer. Yet, the possible environmental impacts could also be devastating. The International Futures model is used to explore both the possibilities and some of the risks of fracking for South Africa.

    Authors: Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Jessica Rettig

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    Hedden, Steve, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Jessica Rettig. December 2013. “Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?” African Futures Paper No. 9. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Highway or Byway: South Africa's NDP 2030 Vision
    Highway or Byway: South Africa's NDP 2030 Vision


    This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to explore the feasibility of the central economic growth target in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. The authors conclude that the growth target (5.4% average annual growth in GDP) and an associated income per capita target are both very ambitious and will require a huge effort, clear leadership, and painful adjustments if they are to be achieved. They point out that other important targets in the Plan, such as in education and infrastructure, are achievable with lower rates of economic growth.

    Authors: Jakkie Cilliers and Hanna Camp

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    Cilliers, Jakkie, and Hanna Camp. July 2013. “Highway or Byway? The National Development Plan 2030.” African Futures Paper No. 6.  Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Population Futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030
    Population Futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030


    This analysis explores South Africa’s fertility, mortality and migration outlooks, with a particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding migration. Using the International Futures (IFs) model and data from the South African 2011 National Census, three potential population futures are simulated and then compared to the projections in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. According to our mid-range forecasts, by 2030 South Africa’s population is projected to increase to between 64.4 and 68.8 million depending on declining, stable, or increasing rates of in-migration.

    Authors: Ara Go, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schünemann

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    Go, Ara, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mickey Rafa, and Julia Schünemann. October 2013. “Population Futures: Revisiting South Africa’s National Development Plan 2030.” African Futures Paper No. 7. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040
    Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040


    This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore potential paths of human development in South Africa's Western Cape to the year 2040. The Human Development Index (HDI), with its tripartite use of life expectancy, education level, and per capita income, is used as the measure of human development. The authors note that human development has recently increased in the Western Cape Province, following an earlier modest decline due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. A Base Case analysis projects further significant gains over the course of the forecast period, and an alternate scenario with aggressive but reasonable interventions suggests how those gains might be even larger. 

    Authors: Jonathan D. Moyer, Carey Neill, and Mickey Rafa​

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    Moyer, Jonathan D., Carey Neill, and Mickey Rafa. 2013. “Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040.” FuturesCape Policy Brief 1 of 2013. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

  • Prospects for Africa's 26 Fragile Countries
    Prospects for Africa's 26 Fragile Countries


    Africa is witnessing strong and sustained high levels of economic growth and an overall reduction in conflict across the continent. New natural resource exploitation, growing urbanisation, and progress in human development goals, such as education and health, generally suggest that the African Renaissance rhetoric is being met with reality. However, the countries still experiencing conflict are caught in a vicious cycle of violence, chronic poverty, inequality, and exclusion from the gains of growth. Exploration of the prospects for these 26 countries shows them to be on a slower trajectory to long-term peace and development, and 10 are forecast to remain fragile throughout the forecast period of this paper (2050).

    Authors: Jakkie Cilliers and Timothy D. Sisk

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    Cilliers, Jakkie and Timothy D. Sisk. October 2013. “Prospects for Africa’s 26 Fragile Countries.” African Futures Paper No. 8. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa
    Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa


    Despite possessing large tracts of rich, uncultivated land, Africa is a net importer of food and suffers from high levels of undernutrition. Many have argued that a "Green Revolution," defined by increasing crop yields and land under cultivation, could bring about a more sustainable future for the continent. In this policy brief we explore not only the scope and impacts of policy choices that would increase yields and land under cultivation in Africa, but also interventions to facilitate the consumption of the increased food supplies by those in need within Africa. 

    Authors: Jonathan D. Moyer and Eric Firnhaber

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    Moyer, Jonathan D. and Eric Firnhaber. September 2012. “Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa.” African Futures Brief No. 4. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication
    Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication


    By comparing a Base Case with a Malaria Eradication scenario, this brief uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore the possible cumulative impacts by 2050 if Africa were able to eliminate malarial infection by 2025. Beneficial impacts are forecast in terms of deaths averted, years of healthy life added, increased overall economic output, increased per capita income, and reduced poverty.  

    Authors: Jonathan D. Moyer and Graham Emde

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    Moyer, Jonathan D., and Graham Emde. November 2012. “Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication.” African Futures Brief No. 5. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Putting the Brakes on Road Traffic Fatalities in Africa
    Putting the Brakes on Road Traffic Fatalities in Africa


    In a Base Case analysis, road traffic accidents in Africa are expected to rapidly increase over the next four decades, becoming a major public health challenge across the continent. The authors analyze the developmental risk factors that contribute to accidents and identify policy interventions to address those risks. The International Futures system is used to forecast the effects of the policy interventions in reducing road traffic deaths and increasing years of productive life, with resulting increases in GDP.

    Authors: Mark Eshbaugh, Greg Maly, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Erin Torkelson​

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    Eshbaugh, Mark, Greg Maly, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Erin Torkelson. March 2012. “Putting the Brakes on Road Traffic Fatalities in Africa.” African Futures Brief No. 3. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • African Futures 2050: The Next Forty Years
    African Futures 2050: The Next Forty Years


    This monograph provides an extensive analysis of the projected course of African development to 2050. Combining the deep and wide knowledge of Africa within the Institute for Security Studies with extensive use of the Pardee Center's International Futures modeling system, the discussion looks across most major development-related issue areas - demographics, economics, sociopolitical change, the environment, and human development itself, including health and education - over an extended forecast period. While not proposing specific policy initiatives, the analysis provides a context within which those who pursue sustainable human development can consider policy options.

    Authors: Jakkie Cilliers, Barry B. Hughes, and Jonathan D. Moyer

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    Cilliers, Jakkie, Barry B. Hughes, and Jonathan D. Moyer. January 2011. "African Futures 2050: The Next Forty Years." Monograph 175. Institute for Security Studies and Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Knowledge Empowers Africa: The Benefits of Increased Investment in Education
    Knowledge Empowers Africa: The Benefits of Increased Investment in Education


    This paper presents two scenarios for the continued advancement of education in Africa and explores their impacts on development. Rates of completion of primary education and of enrollment in secondary education are simulated for a Base Case and for a positive scenario with enhanced (aggressive but plausible) rates of participation. The modeled impacts of the two scenarios on reductions of childhood undernutrition, poverty, and state failure are compared. A preliminary cost-benefit analysis is included. 

    Authors: Keith Gehring, Mohammod T. Irfan, Patrick McLennan, Jonathan D. Moyer, Hopolang Selebalo, and Erin Torkelson​

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    Gehring, Keith, Mohammod T. Irfan, Patrick McLennan, Jonathan D. Moyer, Hopolang Selebalo, and Erin Torkelson. December 2011. “Knowledge Empowers Africa: The Benefits of Increased Investment in Education.” African Futures Brief No. 2. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

  • Taps and Toilets: How Greater Access Can Radically Improve Africa’s Future
    Taps and Toilets: How Greater Access Can Radically Improve Africa’s Future


    The International Futures modeling system is used to explore the impact of sanitation and clean water on development in Africa through improvements in access to them. The paper explores a Base Case and alternate scenarios that reflect, respectively, enhanced rates of access and stagnating rates of access. Impacts on development are measured through infant mortality, communicable diseases, GDP, and state fragility. The analysis includes a preliminary cost-benefit analysis.

    Authors: Mark Eshbaugh, Eric Firnhaber, Patrick McLennan, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Erin Torkelson​

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    Eshbaugh, Mark, Eric Firnhaber, Patrick McLennan, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Erin Torkelson. August 2011. “Taps and Toilets: How Greater Access Can Radically Improve Africa’s Future.” African Futures Brief No. 1. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

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August 23, 2020

Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Third Party Publications

Sellers, Samuel. (2020). Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02824-0

June 08, 2020

Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change

Journal Article

Sanderson, Benjamin M., and Brian C. O'Neill. 2020. “Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change.” Scientific Reports 10, 9173 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-66275-4

May 08, 2020

Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Journal Article

Gao, Jing, and Brian C. O'Neill. 2020. "Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Nature Communications 11, 2302 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15788-7

April 21, 2020

US State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Journal Article

Zoraghein, Hamidreza, and Brian C. O'Neill. 2019. “U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.” Sustainability 2020, 12(8), 3374; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083374

April 13, 2020

The effect of education on determinants of climate change risks

Journal Article

O'Neill, Brian C., Leiwen Jiang, Samir KC, Regina Fuchs, Shonali Pachauri, Emily K. Laidlaw, Tiantian Zhang, Wei Zhou and Xiaolin Ren. 2020.

January 01, 2020

Assessing the impact of Conflict on Development in North-East Nigeria

Other Pardee Publications

Hanna, Taylor, David K. Bohl, Mickey Rafa, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2020.

January 01, 2020

Central America and the Caribbean Regional Education Report

Third Party Publications

Sarah Dickerson, David Bohl, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Alex Porter, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2020.

January 01, 2020

Conditions for Success in the Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement

Other Pardee Publications

Moyer, Jonathan D., Abigail Kabandula, David K. Bohl, Taylor Hanna, Ibrahim Mayaki, and Martin Bwalya. 2020.