From time to time, analytic working papers are generated to explore selected aspects of the International Futures (IFs) modeling system. Some are used to test aspects of the model, while others become foundations for larger research efforts and writing projects. Many evolve over time, so it is important to note working paper numbers and dates when using and citing the papers.
Meisel, Collin J., Caleb L. Petry, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Mathew Burrows. n.d. “Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios.” Stimson.
In this commentary with the Modern War Institute at West Point, Collin makes a case for how and why material measures continue to offer an important guide to measuring power at the national level.
Collin's latest commentary in War on the Rocks was just published May 8, 2023. Meisel argues that focusing only on the deterrence failures in Ukraine at the expense of deterrence successes in Europe muddies conversations about deterrence and risks drawing
Verhagen, W., Meziere, M. E., Bohl, D. K., Howe, B., Moyer J. M. (2022). "Guinea-Bissau: Exploring Alternative Futures of Development. Report 2: The Cost of Not Going Green."
This journal article presents a new multidimensional measure of relative national capabilities and forecasts using the International Futures model across 29 alternative scenarios.