Cilliers, J. and Camp, H. (2013). “Highway or Byway? The National Development Plan 2030.”

African Futures Paper No. 6. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to explore the feasibility of the central economic growth target in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. The authors conclude that the growth target (5.4% average annual growth in GDP) and an associated income per capita target are both very ambitious and will require a huge effort, clear leadership, and painful adjustments if they are to be achieved. They point out that other important targets in the Plan, such as in education and infrastructure, are achievable with lower rates of economic growth.

Cilliers, J., Hughes, B.B. and Moyer, J.D. (2011). "African Futures 2050: The Next Forty Years."

Monograph 175. Institute for Security Studies and Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This monograph provides an extensive analysis of the projected course of African development to 2050. Combining the deep and wide knowledge of Africa within the Institute for Security Studies with extensive use of the Pardee Center's International Futures modeling system, the discussion looks across most major development-related issue areas - demographics, economics, sociopolitical change, the environment, and human development itself, including health and education - over an extended forecast period. While not proposing specific policy initiatives, the analysis provides a context within which those who pursue sustainable human development can consider policy options.

Cilliers, J., Schünemann, J., and Moyer, J.D. (2015). “Power and Influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa.”

African Futures Paper No. 14. Institute for Security Studies and Drederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Using the International Futures modeling system, this paper explores the changing power capabilities of Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa (the"Big Five") over the next 25 years. Ethiopia and Nigeria are forecast to increase their power capabilities, whereas Algeria, Egypt and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline. Two of the Big Five countries currently punch above their weight--one that is rising, Ethiopia, and another, South Africa, whose growth is stagnant. If Nigeria were able to take the necessary steps to realize far-reaching changes to the governance issues and social challenges that currently beset the country, it could become Africa’s lone superpower.

Cilliers, J. and Sisk, T.D. (2013). “Prospects for Africa’s 26 Fragile Countries.”

African Futures Paper No. 8. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Africa is witnessing strong and sustained high levels of economic growth and an overall reduction in conflict across the continent. New natural resource exploitation, growing urbanisation, and progress in human development goals, such as education and health, generally suggest that the African Renaissance rhetoric is being met with reality. However, the countries still experiencing conflict are caught in a vicious cycle of violence, chronic poverty, inequality, and exclusion from the gains of growth. Exploration of the prospects for these 26 countries shows them to be on a slower trajectory to long-term peace and development, and 10 are forecast to remain fragile throughout the forecast period of this paper (2050).