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The Pardee Institute has worked with the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. One project was to incorporate information on World Bank and IMF lending into the financial flow system of IFs. Another was to explore IFs within the RAND Center’s Robust Adaptive Policy or Robust Decision Making approach. We continue to have connections with our sister Pardee Center.
In pursuing its mission of improving health in the developing world, Population Services International (PSI) is a leading promoter of family planning, oral rehydration therapy, malaria and HIV prevention, and safe water. It is a major provider of long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets and condoms. PSI devotes great attention to assessing the impact of its efforts, using metrics such as years of healthy life added. In advance of a possible movement of its programming into provision of improved cookstoves and hence reduction of indoor air pollution, a major killer globally, PSI and the Pardee Center are collaborating on an impact assessment of such stoves, an outgrowth of the work of the Center in health forecasting.
Our Institute's relationship with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) continues to expand. We have used IFs to inform the organization’s five-year Development Cooperation Strategies at both the regional and country level. In partnership with our colleagues at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa, we have produced trend and scenario analysis reports for USAID missions like those in Ethiopia and the Southern Africa region. Pardee Institute researchers have held IFs trainings with USAID mission in Jakarta, Indonesia and elsewhere. We also completed a report on development trends in Uganda in 2015, which directly influenced the country mission's five-year strategy for budgeting, planning, and resource allocation, and led to further ongoing analysis of key development indicators at the subnational level. In 2021, a Pardee Institute team with support from the National Opinion Research Center (NORC), developed a report that investigates the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on food security to the year 2040 at world and world-region levels. The report quantifies the multi-dimensional nature of food security by assessing the effect of COVID-19 on extreme poverty, undernourishment, and child stunting out to 2040, and by assessing the effects on underlying drivers of food availability, economic access, and food utilization. The project also explored the impacts of climate and conflict on food security.
The Pardee Center has a long-term relationship with the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) to support the organization's efforts to develop a long-term growth and development plan for countries within the African Union. To set the foundation for our collaboration, our team provided a series of hands-on trainings for officials in the region and coauthored a report on the organization's Agenda 2063 targets. More recently, we published research and forecasts related to food security on the continent.
Our team has provided support to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in a number of ways. Most recently, we expanded our ability to measure and visualize each country’s progress over time in achieving the SDGs, adding two additional specialized displays in IFs that allow users to forecast the path of SDG achievement across targets to 2030. IFs is also featured in the UN Development Group’s online SDG Acceleration Toolkit. Previously, our team presented IFs to the organization’s analysts, partners and other data-oriented stakeholders in both Nairobi and New York. The UNDP has also solicited research papers using IFs that provided input used in the 2011 and 2013 Human Development Reports (HDR). The research in support of the 2011 HDR focused on environmental constraints to human development. The research in support of the 2013 report modeled the impact of aggressive but reasonable policy interventions across thematic issue areas.
Google’s Public Data Explorer provides users with a free, easy to use means of accessing, exploring, and visualizing large datasets and public databases. Now, thanks to collaboration between the Pardee Center and Google, you can use the Google Public Data site to explore a wide range of forecasts from IFs, including: an updated global forecast replicating Hans Rosling's famous cross-sectional plot of fertility and GDP; global energy demand for UNEP GEO 4 scenarios; relative material power for the United States, China, and India; a map displaying the distribution of malnourished children; and the percentage of people by region with household connections to safe water.
For one example of how Google Public Data Explorer can be used, please see the following visualization of Population (percent total) 65+ and Power Index compared by country.
In the 1980s a global model called GLOBUS was developed and housed at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fur Sozialforschung or WZB (Social Science Research Center Berlin). After learning about IFs, WZB invited Dr. Hughes to be a commuting member of the Berlin team. He brought IFs into the project as a foundational tool for the demographic and economic modules of GLOBUS.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) produces Global Environment Outlook (GEO) reports under its charge from the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The IFs team participated actively in the preparation of GEO 4, released in 2007. In 2017, the UNEP invited our former Research System Developer Steve Hedden to participate as a coordinating lead author of the “Outlooks” chapter of the upcoming sixth Global Environmental Outlook (GEO 6). Jonathan D. Moyer and Barry Hughes will also participate as authors. In both GEO 4 and in the upcoming GEO 6, forecasts from IFs help integrate forecasts from other contributing groups in the project.
By the late 1990s General Motors had already established an important production and marketing presence in China but was interested in better understanding future prospects. The IFs team collaborated with their futures and planning group in that analysis.
As a successor to the Millennium Development Goal of reducing extreme poverty by 50 percent before 2015, the global community is rapidly moving toward setting a goal of eliminating it by 2030 (using 3 percent as a target for effective elimination). That goal appears very likely beyond the reach of fragile and conflict-afflicted states. The Pardee Center has collaborated with the World Bank's Center on Conflict, Security, and Development to forecast probable and possible levels of poverty in those states and to explore interventions that might accelerate reduction, even if the 3 percent poverty level does not appear attainable.
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