Eshbaugh, M., Maly, G., Moyer, J.D. and Torkelson, E. (2012). “Putting the Brakes on Road Traffic Fatalities in Africa.”

African Futures Brief No. 3. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

In a Base Case analysis, road traffic accidents in Africa are expected to rapidly increase over the next four decades, becoming a major public health challenge across the continent. The authors analyze the developmental risk factors that contribute to accidents and identify policy interventions to address those risks. The International Futures system is used to forecast the effects of the policy interventions in reducing road traffic deaths and increasing years of productive life, with resulting increases in GDP.

Eshbaugh, M., Firnhaber, E., McLennan, P., Moyer, J.D. and Torkelson, E. (2011). “Taps and Toilets: How Greater Access Can Radically Improve Africa’s Future.”

African Futures Brief No. 1. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

The International Futures modeling system is used to explore the impact of sanitation and clean water on development in Africa through improvements in access to them. The paper explores a Base Case and alternate scenarios that reflect, respectively, enhanced rates of access and stagnating rates of access. Impacts on development are measured through infant mortality, communicable diseases, GDP, and state fragility. The analysis includes a preliminary cost-benefit analysis.