Hedden, S. (2015). "Turning vision into reality: Namibia's long-term development outlook." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver.

Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, this paper first presents a plausible long-term population forecast for Namibia. This forecast is then used to assess key targets from the National Development Plan (NDP4) and Vision 2030, Namibia’s long-term development strategy. The paper then plots three scenarios to chart Namibia’s potential progress. Under the Current Path scenario, the economy continues to grow, but many targets remain out of reach. The Infrastructure Access scenario maps a future where Namibia invests heavily in infrastructure development, but this translates into less investment in other vital sectors. Finally, the Leave No Namibian Out scenario sees overall increases in human development and economic growth, along with a slight reduction in inequality by 2030, but deep-seated structural challenges remain.

Hedden, S. (2015). "Gridlocked: A long-term look at South Africa's electricity sector." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver.

Electricity generation in South Africa is changing, but whether the electricity grid will be able to adapt to these changes is uncertain. This paper presents an alternative frame for the current electricity challenges by focusing on the electricity grid. Using the International Futures forecasting model, the African Futures Project has built three scenarios to 2050 to inform policymakers of the long-term implications of grid decisions. With coordinated planning, improved operational strategies and coherent policies, renewable energy can contribute significantly to the energy mix by 2050, help increase economic growth and benefit all South Africans. These interventions, however, will only be successful if there is a clear plan for the structure of the electricity sector.

Hedden, S., Moyer, J.D., and Rettig, J. (2013). “Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?”

African Futures Paper No. 9. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

South Africa is poised to move forward with shale gas development through hydraulic fracturing or "fracking," exploring what experts believe to be the eighth largest shale gas reserve in the world. For a country that currently is almost wholly dependent on coal production, shale gas development could be a game-changer. Yet, the possible environmental impacts could also be devastating. The International Futures model is used to explore both the possibilities and some of the risks of fracking for South Africa.

Hedden, S. (2016). "Parched Prospects II: A Revised Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast for South Africa." African Futures Paper No. 16. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School o

It is likely that South Africa is overexploiting its water resources at the national level, as water withdrawals currently exceed reliable supply. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper forecasts that withdrawals in all three sectors (municipal, industrial and agricultural) will increase over the next 20 years. Proposed interventions for increasing supply and reducing demand are not enough to reconcile the gap between withdrawals and supply. More must be done to bring the South African water sector into balance and reconcile future national water withdrawals with future national supply.​​

Hedden, S. and Cilliers, J. (2014). “Parched Prospects: The Emerging Water Crisis in South Africa.”

African Futures Paper No. 11. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

South Africa is over-exploiting its freshwater resources, and water could be a large constraint on the implementation of the country's National Development Plan. Using the International Futures forecasting system, this paper models and forecasts water demand and supply until 2035, the period covered by the National Water Resource Strategy 2013. The authors’ research finds that the gap between demand and supply increases over this period, and that the solutions proposed by the Department of Water Affairs and Sanitation will not close the gap without additional, aggressive measures. The authors propose such measures for each sector of demand and each source of water supply.