Cilliers, Jake. (2025, February 25). The toll of USAID cuts on Africa. ISS Africa Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-toll-of-USAID-cuts-on-Africa?utm_source=Institute+for+security+studies&utm_campaign=375b5af3bc-Africa_Tomorrow_Blog&utm_

February 04, 2025

Andrijevic, M., Zimm, C., Moyer, J.D., Muttarak, R., et al. 2025. Representing gender inequality in scenarios improves understanding of climate challenges. Nature Climate Change, 15, 138–146. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02242-5

Achieving gender equality can increase societies’ capacities to deal with climate change. Here we highlight empirical connections between gender equality and climate change adaptation and mitigation to propose a structured and detailed inclusion of gender-related aspects in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway framework. The introduction of hypothetical pathways of gender (in)equality in the scenario space can help analyse interactions with other socioeconomic drivers and subsequent implications for adaptation and mitigation options. The extent of challenges to climate change adaptation and mitigation may substantially change depending on the rate at which societies progress towards equal access to resources and opportunities for self-realization for all genders. We propose steps that the scenario community could take to enrich the next generation of socioeconomic pathways.

Meisel, C. (2025, January 13). From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/from-myanmar-to-gaza-ukraine-to-sudan-2024-was-another-grim-year-accord

Solórzano, J., Hughes, B., Irfan, M., Xiong, Y., Kwasi, S., Ibrahim, A., Makhamatova, S., Hanna, T., Moyer, J. (2024). Protocol for making forecasts exogenous in the International Futures model. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xpro.2024.103414

Understanding future dynamics and trends in human and natural development is foundational for creating appropriate policy strategies to address planetary and development challenges. Here, we present a protocol for adding exogenous series for key variables, such as the shared socioeconomic pathways, to the database of the International Futures (IFs) integrated model. We describe steps for installing IFs and the SQLiteStudio software, understanding the IFs database, importing series, running the model, and extracting results.
For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Moyer.

Abu, T., Achore, M., Irfan, M., Musah, I., Azzika, T. (2024). The past, present, and future of Ghana’s WASH sector. An explorative analysis. Water Security. 23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2024.100185

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) are fundamental to human health and development. Initiatives like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propelled WASH inequities to the forefront of development. Several countries have undergone reforms to ensure universal access to WASH. Using Ghana as a case study, we traced the evolutionary path of Ghana’s WASH sector highlighting persistent socio-ecological and political-economic factors shaping the current WASH sector reforms and access. We then engage in an integrated assessment modelling to examine the viability and implications of achieving targets of SDG 6 using the International Futures simulation. We find a more feasible pathway to achieving universal WASH access should prioritize eradicating open defecation and surface water use often experienced in rural and urban slums.

Meisel, C. (2024). In Syria, be careful what you wish for. Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/in-syria-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/

Moyer, J., Sahadevan, D. (2024). Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/media/10201/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Navigate-Future-Report-2024.pdf

As we move through the twenty-first century, humanity faces a complex array of challenges. These mutually reinforcing issues include climate change and geopolitical instability, as well as persistent socioeconomic disparities that have profound implications for children’s well-being.1 At such a critical crossroads, policy choices we make today will determine the welfare of future generations. In their interest, addressing this complex web of collective action problems demands a broad-based, integrated analysis focussed on comprehensive and equitable solutions.

Hanna, T., Kruczkiewicz, A., Owen, M. (2024). Land degradation and human development in Yemen. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/yemen/publications/land-degradation-and-human-development-yemen

This study, “Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen,” was commissioned by UNDP in 2024 as part of a collaboration with the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver and climate researchers. Yemen is frequently said to be experiencing one of the worst development and humanitarian crises in the world after more
than ten years of ongoing conflict. At the same time, it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and for decades has faced a worsening water crisis as well as land degradation (including deterioration of historical terracing systems), desertification and soil erosion. This report seeks to better understand how the above-mentioned phenomena could affect economic and human development in Yemen on immediate, medium and long-term timescales.

The report explores the links between climate change, land degradation and desertification, conflict, and human development outcomes in Yemen. This report begins with a review of the literature of the drivers, context, and intervening factors around land degradation and desertification in Yemen so far. This is followed by an analysis of historical subregional data on land degradation and climatic variables within
the country. Turning toward the socioeconomic effects, the report first reviews literature on the pathways through which desertification can alter agricultural production and otherwise affect economic and human development. Finally, the report uses integrated modelling techniques and scenario analysis using the  International Futures (IFs) model to explore the effect of degradation and restoration pathways on future development in Yemen. The IFs model has previously been applied to assess the effect of ongoing conflict in Yemen on human development and to examine possible recovery pathways in the Impact of War trilogy of reports and the Impact of Climate Change on Human Development produced by UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures.

(2024). Carbon bargain: The energy transition will be much cheaper than you think. The Economist.

Abidoye, B., Banda, A., Baumwoll, J., Carman, R., Moz-Christofoletti, M., Orlic, E., Patterson, L. (2024). Advancing the SDG Push with equitable low-carbon pathways. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/publications/advancing-sdg-push-equitable-low-carbon-pathways

The ‘SDG Push x NDC 3.0’ research, a collaboration between UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Center, outlines a framework for a fair, low-carbon energy transition that considers the needs of both wealthy and lower-income nations. The report updates the second flagship publication, Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examining an integrated set of policy strategies that accelerates climate actions while promoting human development. By supporting equitable access to energy, green investments, and digital infrastructure, it aims to foster inclusive, sustainable growth and align with the Paris Agreement targets

The research finds that an additional 60 million people could be lifted from poverty by 2030, and upwards of 175 million people by 2050, through these ambitious, yet feasible policy choices. In addition, nine out of ten low-human development countries could make significant strides towards improving their current development outcomes by 2050 while carbon emissions are reduced by two-thirds by 2050.