Collin Meisel. (2026, June 11). What America's demographic future means for Africa and Europe. Megatrends Afrika Spotlight No. 71. https://www.megatrends-afrika.de/en/publication/mta-spotlight-71-us-demographic-decline-could-reshape-the-global-balance-of-power

Demographic shifts in the United States could reshape its relationships with Africa and Europe over the coming decades. Using the International Futures (IFs) model developed by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, the piece explores how lower immigration could slow U.S. population growth, weaken the labor force, and reduce long-term economic and geopolitical influence. It also considers how these demographic changes could affect the balance of global power and opportunities for cooperation between regions. By modeling alternative long-term scenarios rather than making fixed predictions, IFs help policymakers better understand the trade-offs and potential consequences of today's policy decisions.

Hughes, B. B. (2026). International Futures: Exploring and Shaping. London Academic Press, An Imprint Of Elsevier.

eBook ISBN: 978-3-032-22084-4

ISBN: 978-3-032-22083-7

Pardee Institute founding Director, Barry Hughes, has published the fifth edition of Exploring and Shaping International Futures, an open-access book that makes the foundations of International Futures available as a practical guide for learning, teaching, scenario analysis, and long-term policy thinking.

The book updates earlier editions for the eighth generation of IFs and is organized around three questions: What future would we like? Where do current trends appear to be taking us? And what leverage do people and institutions have to shape what comes next? Across chapters on population, economics, human well-being, food and agriculture, energy, the environment, and domestic and global sociopolitical systems, Hughes connects forecasts, model insights, and points of intervention to help readers examine uncertainty, choices, and possible futures.

Keisuke Minai. (2026, April 12). Qatar's mediation diplomacy strength: An analysis of reactions to Israel's September 2025 attack. The SAIS Review of International Affairs. https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/qatars-mediation-diplomacy-strength-an-analysis-of-reactions-to-israels-september-2025-attack/

Keisuke Minai used the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index and Global Power Index (GPI) from the Pardee's Institute's Diplometrics research program to explore Qatar's use of mediation diplomacy following an air strike in its capital in September 2025. According to Professor Minai, their advanced statistical analysis "confirms that Qatar’s mediation activities are positively associated with its international influence in the long term, while its national power plays a role in the short term."

Bennett, N., Bloom, D., de la Vega, R., Hanna, T., Lavopa, A., & Prettner, K. (2026, March 23). The future of jobs in an era of demographic and technological transformation. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. 

United Nations Industrial Development Organization has released a new policy brief, The Future of Jobs in an Era of Demographic and Technological Transformation, co-authored by Pardee’s Taylor Hanna. The brief serves as a follow-up to UNIDO’s latest Industrial Development Report, which was supported by Hanna and Pardee Research Associate Bido Ibrahim. Drawing on projections from the International Futures model, the analysis explores how demographic change and automation will reshape global employment by 2050. It highlights stark regional differences, with developing economies facing growing job creation pressures and advanced economies confronting higher risks of automation-driven displacement. Under a moderate automation scenario, global demand for new jobs could grow to one billion—underscoring the need for forward-looking, context-specific policy responses.

Moyer, Jonathan D., & Meisel, Collin J. (2026, March 16). “Climate change modelling and international relations: in pursuit of an integrated, long-term research agenda” in Handbook on the Geopolitics of Sustainability. (pgs. 368-378). Edward Elgar Publishing.

In this book chapter, Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer and Director of Analysis Collin Meisel, identify a crucial disciplinary gap between international relations theory and climate change modelling. To help bridge this divide, Moyer and Meisel call for an integrated research agenda that aligns international relations with the long-term, large-scale quantitative forecasting models utilized by climate researchers. By incorporating a “systems map” approach, researchers can establish a baseline forecast of the international system to test the complex, interacting geopolitical impacts of direct climate effects, mitigation, and adaptation.

Explore the full chapter here.

United Nations Environment Programme. (2025). Global Environment Outlook 7: A future we choose. United Nations Environment Programme. https://www.unep.org/geo/global-environment-outlook-7

What is the real price tag of delaying climate and nature action by another year—or another decade? 

The United Nations Environment Programme’s Global Environemnt Outlook 7: A future we choose (GEO-7) explores this question. Launched on December 9, 2025, at the seventh UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) in Nairobi, Kenya, GEO-7 is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment to date. Produced by 287 multidisciplinary scientists from 82 countries and reviewed by more than 800 experts and 56 review editors worldwide, the report reflects an effort of remarkable scale, ensuring scientific credibility and global representation.  

The price tag – measured in human and economic costs – of failing to achieve transformative change is steep. GEO-7 finds that continued environmental degradation will drive growing economic losses and could cost tens of millions of lives over the coming decades. Pollution, climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation are already leading to devastating environmental, economic, and human impacts. The outlook emphasizes that these crises are deeply interconnected and that addressing them will require integrated, system-wide solutions across regions and within national governments and societies.  

Crucially, GEO-7 underscores that this future is not inevitable. The report maps out two “Transformation Pathway” scenarios – alternative ways that societies might achieve global environmental goals while supporting economic prosperity. The technology-focused transformation focuses on technological development and efficiency gains. The behavior-focused transformation illuminates how shifts in values and material consumption patterns could drive change. Together, these pathways explore how structural change in energy, food systems, land use, materials and waste, and finance could alter long-term outcomes. 

Taylor Hanna, Associate Director of Development Analysis at the Pardee Institute, and Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Pardee Institute, served as lead authors on Chapters 10 and 11. These chapters map the global implications of the continuation of current trends (Chapter 10) and the pursuit of transformation pathways (Chapter 11). They draw on the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model, used alongside other global environmental and economic models, to explore long-term trajectories for economic, agricultural, and energy indicators.  

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for global partnerships, recognizing that ending poverty is linked to progress in education, energy, and health. The IFs model suggests that under current trends, the world will achieve only modest well-being improvements and miss many SDG targets. Many will still lack basic needs, and disparities between high-income countries and others persist. This highlights an opportunity for countries to align strategies with sustainability and improve well-being. Scenario analysis shows where integrated policies can close gaps and foster inclusive progress. 

By contrast, the Transformation Pathways mapped out in GEO-7 suggest meaningful progress is possible –not only toward global climate goals and stronger economic growth, but also toward improved human well-being worldwide. In the modeling, these pathways lift more than 100 million people out of extreme poverty, 200 million out of hunger, and prevent 9 million premature deaths relative to Current Trends. 

This is the third GEO assessment to which the Pardee Institute and the IFs model have contributed, following earlier involvement in GEO-4 and GEO-6. By contributing to successive GEO assessments, the Pardee Institute continues to provide systems-based long-term analysis as part of a wider international effort to link environmental science with policy decisions. You can access the full GEO-7 report here and view background information, including press releases and the report timeline.  

United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2026). Industrial Development Report 2026: The future of industrialization: Building future-ready industries for sustainable development. UNIDO. https://www.unido.org/publications/industrial-development-report-series

On November 26, 2025, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) launched its Industrial Development Report (IDR), "Industrial Development Report 2026: The future of industrialization: Building future-ready industries for sustainable development," at the Global Industry Summit in Riyadh. The Pardee Institute supported IDR 2026 by providing forecasts and scenario analysis to explore industrial development scenarios out to 2050 and assess how developing countries could leverage an Industrial Push to advance economic and human development. The following Pardee Institute experts supported the production of this edition of the report: Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, Collin J. Meisel, José Solórzano, Yutang Xiong, Solikha Makhmatova and Victoria Pepera.

Hughes, B. B., Solórzano, J., & Rothman, D. S., Irfan, R. I., Sahadevan, D. (2025, November 11). IFs energy model documentation. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. https://pardeewiki.du.edu/index.php?title=Energy