Moyer, J., Sahadevan, D. (2024). Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/media/10201/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Navigate-Future-Report-2024.pdf

As we move through the twenty-first century, humanity faces a complex array of challenges. These mutually reinforcing issues include climate change and geopolitical instability, as well as persistent socioeconomic disparities that have profound implications for children’s well-being.1 At such a critical crossroads, policy choices we make today will determine the welfare of future generations. In their interest, addressing this complex web of collective action problems demands a broad-based, integrated analysis focussed on comprehensive and equitable solutions.

Hanna, T., Kruczkiewicz, A., Owen, M. (2024). Land degradation and human development in Yemen. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/yemen/publications/land-degradation-and-human-development-yemen

This study, “Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen,” was commissioned by UNDP in 2024 as part of a collaboration with the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver and climate researchers. Yemen is frequently said to be experiencing one of the worst development and humanitarian crises in the world after more
than ten years of ongoing conflict. At the same time, it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and for decades has faced a worsening water crisis as well as land degradation (including deterioration of historical terracing systems), desertification and soil erosion. This report seeks to better understand how the above-mentioned phenomena could affect economic and human development in Yemen on immediate, medium and long-term timescales.

The report explores the links between climate change, land degradation and desertification, conflict, and human development outcomes in Yemen. This report begins with a review of the literature of the drivers, context, and intervening factors around land degradation and desertification in Yemen so far. This is followed by an analysis of historical subregional data on land degradation and climatic variables within
the country. Turning toward the socioeconomic effects, the report first reviews literature on the pathways through which desertification can alter agricultural production and otherwise affect economic and human development. Finally, the report uses integrated modelling techniques and scenario analysis using the  International Futures (IFs) model to explore the effect of degradation and restoration pathways on future development in Yemen. The IFs model has previously been applied to assess the effect of ongoing conflict in Yemen on human development and to examine possible recovery pathways in the Impact of War trilogy of reports and the Impact of Climate Change on Human Development produced by UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures.

Abidoye, B., Banda, A., Baumwoll, J., Carman, R., Moz-Christofoletti, M., Orlic, E., Patterson, L. (2024). Advancing the SDG Push with equitable low-carbon pathways. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/publications/advancing-sdg-push-equitable-low-carbon-pathways

The ‘SDG Push x NDC 3.0’ research, a collaboration between UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Center, outlines a framework for a fair, low-carbon energy transition that considers the needs of both wealthy and lower-income nations. The report updates the second flagship publication, Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examining an integrated set of policy strategies that accelerates climate actions while promoting human development. By supporting equitable access to energy, green investments, and digital infrastructure, it aims to foster inclusive, sustainable growth and align with the Paris Agreement targets

The research finds that an additional 60 million people could be lifted from poverty by 2030, and upwards of 175 million people by 2050, through these ambitious, yet feasible policy choices. In addition, nine out of ten low-human development countries could make significant strides towards improving their current development outcomes by 2050 while carbon emissions are reduced by two-thirds by 2050.

Schünemann, J. (2014). “Why Strategic Foresight Matters for Africa.” African Futures Paper No 12. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.

Over the past five decades, Africa has experienced great transition and change. Many positive developments are taking shape on the continent. Overall, human development is improving, conflict has declined, and sustained economic growth presents genuine opportunities for development. Yet, many structural challenges persist, and the pressure to tackle these simultaneously is probably the most complex task the continent faces today. Africa needs to deepen its strategic reflection in order to anticipate the future with confidence. It must think more systematically about long-term trends and plan for the future if it is to take advantage of opportunities arising from economic growth.

USAID Brief

Hedden, S. (2015). "Turning vision into reality: Namibia's long-term development outlook." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Denver.

Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, this paper first presents a plausible long-term population forecast for Namibia. This forecast is then used to assess key targets from the National Development Plan (NDP4) and Vision 2030, Namibia’s long-term development strategy. The paper then plots three scenarios to chart Namibia’s potential progress. Under the Current Path scenario, the economy continues to grow, but many targets remain out of reach. The Infrastructure Access scenario maps a future where Namibia invests heavily in infrastructure development, but this translates into less investment in other vital sectors. Finally, the Leave No Namibian Out scenario sees overall increases in human development and economic growth, along with a slight reduction in inequality by 2030, but deep-seated structural challenges remain.

Porter, A., Bohl, D., Kwasi, S., Donnenfeld, Z., Cilliers, J. (2017). "Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development?" Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies

A report from the African Futures Project, a collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies, uses IFs to assess Mozambique’s long-term development prospects. The discovery that Mozambique holds one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world has generated great optimism about the country’s future. But the recent sovereign debt crisis has cast serious doubt on the ability of the country to effectively manage the associated profits and better promote human development. The report concludes that without a concerted effort to ensure transparent management of gas revenues and channel that windfall into investment in basic human development, the country will continue to face barriers to inclusive growth. Without basic service delivery and better budget management, gas reserves won’t help Mozambique’s poorest.

Citation: Yemen voluntary national review. Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (July 2024) Contributions from Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, and Jonathan D. Moyer, https://hlpf.un.org/countries/yemen/voluntary-national-reviews-2024

Yemen has been experiencing an exceptional phase and highly complex conditions for ten years due to a coup by the Houthi terrorist militia against the state. One of the consequences of this war has been the collapse of the state and the redirection of development and growth trajectories into the negative for many years, with Yemen falling in all international economic, humanitarian, and social indicators. However, despite this difficult reality, the resilience and cohesion of Yemenis, along with the sincere support from brothers and friends, have been fundamental in normalizing the situation, restoring stability, and resuming the building of state institutions. Despite all the challenges, including the ongoing war and difficult economic conditions, there are efforts being made to restore building and development, with national consensus on strengthening institutional work and developing tools to interact with the world and integrate into the visions of development and prosperity of the region and the world, and to address the consequences of the war. The economic file represents a top priority in the government's agenda and its general program, including achieving sustainable development goals and enhancing economic resilience. Five main priorities have been set for the government's work in the coming phase: (a) restoring the state and achieving sustainable peace, (b) combating corruption and enhancing transparency and accountability, (c) achieving financial and administrative reform, (d) developing economic resources, and (e) maximizing the benefits from external aid and grants and directing them according to the needs and priorities of the government. Through these five priorities, we will strive to achieve tangible and clear progress towards the sustainable development goals, and we will harness all possible energies for this purpose.

United Nations Development Programme

Sustainable energy could regenerate Africa’s Sahelian zone by using the region’s abundant clean energy potential to transform lives, diversify economies, give hope, and protect the planet. Analyzing viable pathways to move the Sahel away from energy dependency to energy agency that delivers accessible, reliable, and affordable energy for all, is the focus of this Human Development Report, which covers Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal. The HDR uses empirical techniques and political economy analyses to consider optimal energy strategies that would be most appropriate for the sub-region and also for each country's context.

https://www.undp.org/africa/publications/sahel-human-development-report-2023

Full Citation: UNICEF Innocenti - Global Office of Research and Foresight, Global Outlook 2024: Prospects for children - Cooperation in a fragmented world, UNICEF Innocenti, Florence, January 2024

For 2024, the Global Outlook addresses cooperation in a fragmented world and examines the ways in which embracing cooperation in the face of growing global fragmentation will help protect the rights, lives and futures of children