Burrows, M., Meisel, C., & Chalikyan, N. (2025). Russia Futures. The Stimson Center.

Sahadevan, D., Irfan, M. T., Luo, C., Moyer, J. D., Mason, C., & Beynon, E. (2025). Charged for change: The case for renewable energy in climate action. UNDP; Pardee Institute for International Futures; Octopus Energy.

United Nations. 2024. Global Risk Report. New York: United Nations.

The Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures conducted a detailed, risk-by-risk assessment to refine the initial list of over 100 risks identified for the report. This assessment involved defining each risk, reviewing existing literature, estimating the likelihood of each risk by 2050, and analyzing potential impacts. Furthermore, modeling data from the Pardee Institute's International Futures (IFs) integrated modeling framework was used to strengthen the robustness of the foresight scenarios presented in the report.

Unlocking the Potential of AfCFTA for Africa’s Young Population. (2025, May). Unicef.org. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/reports/unlocking-potential-afcfta-africas-young-population

‌UNICEF and the Pardee Institute recently launched a collaborative report on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and its implications for Africa’s young population, led by Pardee researchers, including Deva Sahadevan, Taylor Hanna, and Jonathan Moyer.

Using our International Futures (IFs) model, the report compares three paths: no AfCFTA, AfCFTA as agreed, and AfCFTA plus strategic investments in education, welfare transfers, and research & development, all the way to 2063. The report recommends that countries put children at the center by investing AfCFTA revenue in education, health, nutrition, and green jobs, while building strong social safety nets. They also need to manage risks like job shifts, environmental impacts, and child protection issues.

Moyer, J., Sahadevan, D. (2024). Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/media/10201/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Navigate-Future-Report-2024.pdf

As we move through the twenty-first century, humanity faces a complex array of challenges. These mutually reinforcing issues include climate change and geopolitical instability, as well as persistent socioeconomic disparities that have profound implications for children’s well-being.1 At such a critical crossroads, policy choices we make today will determine the welfare of future generations. In their interest, addressing this complex web of collective action problems demands a broad-based, integrated analysis focussed on comprehensive and equitable solutions.

Hanna, T., Kruczkiewicz, A., Owen, M. (2024). Land degradation and human development in Yemen. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/yemen/publications/land-degradation-and-human-development-yemen

This study, “Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen,” was commissioned by UNDP in 2024 as part of a collaboration with the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver and climate researchers. Yemen is frequently said to be experiencing one of the worst development and humanitarian crises in the world after more
than ten years of ongoing conflict. At the same time, it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and for decades has faced a worsening water crisis as well as land degradation (including deterioration of historical terracing systems), desertification and soil erosion. This report seeks to better understand how the above-mentioned phenomena could affect economic and human development in Yemen on immediate, medium and long-term timescales.

The report explores the links between climate change, land degradation and desertification, conflict, and human development outcomes in Yemen. This report begins with a review of the literature of the drivers, context, and intervening factors around land degradation and desertification in Yemen so far. This is followed by an analysis of historical subregional data on land degradation and climatic variables within
the country. Turning toward the socioeconomic effects, the report first reviews literature on the pathways through which desertification can alter agricultural production and otherwise affect economic and human development. Finally, the report uses integrated modelling techniques and scenario analysis using the  International Futures (IFs) model to explore the effect of degradation and restoration pathways on future development in Yemen. The IFs model has previously been applied to assess the effect of ongoing conflict in Yemen on human development and to examine possible recovery pathways in the Impact of War trilogy of reports and the Impact of Climate Change on Human Development produced by UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures.

Abidoye, B., Banda, A., Baumwoll, J., Carman, R., Moz-Christofoletti, M., Orlic, E., Patterson, L. (2024). Advancing the SDG Push with equitable low-carbon pathways. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/publications/advancing-sdg-push-equitable-low-carbon-pathways

The ‘SDG Push x NDC 3.0’ research, a collaboration between UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Center, outlines a framework for a fair, low-carbon energy transition that considers the needs of both wealthy and lower-income nations. The report updates the second flagship publication, Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examining an integrated set of policy strategies that accelerates climate actions while promoting human development. By supporting equitable access to energy, green investments, and digital infrastructure, it aims to foster inclusive, sustainable growth and align with the Paris Agreement targets

The research finds that an additional 60 million people could be lifted from poverty by 2030, and upwards of 175 million people by 2050, through these ambitious, yet feasible policy choices. In addition, nine out of ten low-human development countries could make significant strides towards improving their current development outcomes by 2050 while carbon emissions are reduced by two-thirds by 2050.

Schünemann, J. (2014). “Why Strategic Foresight Matters for Africa.” African Futures Paper No 12. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver.

Over the past five decades, Africa has experienced great transition and change. Many positive developments are taking shape on the continent. Overall, human development is improving, conflict has declined, and sustained economic growth presents genuine opportunities for development. Yet, many structural challenges persist, and the pressure to tackle these simultaneously is probably the most complex task the continent faces today. Africa needs to deepen its strategic reflection in order to anticipate the future with confidence. It must think more systematically about long-term trends and plan for the future if it is to take advantage of opportunities arising from economic growth.

USAID Brief

Hedden, S. (2015). "Turning vision into reality: Namibia's long-term development outlook." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver.

Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, this paper first presents a plausible long-term population forecast for Namibia. This forecast is then used to assess key targets from the National Development Plan (NDP4) and Vision 2030, Namibia’s long-term development strategy. The paper then plots three scenarios to chart Namibia’s potential progress. Under the Current Path scenario, the economy continues to grow, but many targets remain out of reach. The Infrastructure Access scenario maps a future where Namibia invests heavily in infrastructure development, but this translates into less investment in other vital sectors. Finally, the Leave No Namibian Out scenario sees overall increases in human development and economic growth, along with a slight reduction in inequality by 2030, but deep-seated structural challenges remain.