Burrows, M., Meisel, C., & Chalikyan, N. (2025). Russia Futures. The Stimson Center.

For decades, Western experts have viewed Russia as a declining power citing a lack of population growth, technology innovation, and a falling GDP for its decline. While it is unlikely to return to its former status, Russia is gaining higher favorability among China, India, and various states across the Global South, establishing alternative multilateral institutions and leaving the West behind. Increased trade with China has nearly met former economic ties with Europe, illustrating a shift in priorities for Putin. The Russian people—trending older—however, would like to see strengthened ties with the United States or other Global South countries. Failure to adjust to the demands of an aging population, while prioritizing commodities and the War in Ukraine could constrain Russian power domestically and globally. Significant investment in the Global South and Central Asia, climate change, and a Northern Sea Route in the Arctic, could shift the narrative for Russia moving forward, revitalizing its power and influence. This report examines three potential scenarios for Russia over the next ten years: a “Sovietized” Russia, set on boosting defense spending; a Great Patriotic War against the West, with Russia increasing its reliance on China; and a Reborn Russia, taking advantage of its geographical ties and influence on the Global South.

Burrows, M., Meisel, C. (2025, April 16). Why Russia Isn’t Doomed. The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-russia-isnt-doomed

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Meisel, C. (2025, January 13). From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/from-myanmar-to-gaza-ukraine-to-sudan-2024-was-another-grim-year-accord

Meisel, C. (2024, April 9). Opinion: There is more to NATO burden sharing than the 2% spending dogma. Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2024/04/09/there-is-more-to-nato-burden-sharing-than-the-2-spending-dogma

As the NATO alliance prepares to gather this summer to celebrate its 75th birthday, rhetoric around “burden sharing” – specifically whether member countries are paying enough, where “enough” is typically defined as military spending equal to 2% of GDP – is likely to heat up. With a war raging just off NATO’s eastern flank as Ukraine defends itself against an aggressor that has become NATO’s raison d’etre, it’s a fair question: Are NATO member countries doing enough?

Meisel, C., Moyer, J., Burrows, M. J., & Petry, C. (2023, August 6). The Russian invasion of Ukraine is boosting the potential for U.S. influence abroad. Lawfare. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/russian-invasion-ukraine-boosting-potential-us-influence-abroad

In this commentary with Lawfare, hosted by the Brookings Institution, Jonathan Moyer, Caleb Petry, Mat Burrows, and Collin Meisel discuss findings from our recent report with the Stimson Center examining future long-term trends in geopolitical influence across alternative scenarios.

Scott, Andrew C., David K. Bohl, Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Barry B. Hughes. 2017.

Sustainable Development Goals Report: Moldova 2030 is a report researched and written by the Pardee Center’s Andrew C. Scott, David K. Bohl, Steve Hedden, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Barry B. Hughes, invited by the United Nations Development Programme (Bureau for Policy Programme Support). In consultation with the UN Country and Regional Offices, the report uses IFs to examine development trends, scenarios of possible interventions, and potential long-term outcomes towards achieving the SDGs. The goal of the report is to steer collective efforts toward achievement of the SDGs in Moldova.

Radusin, Svjetlana, Senad Opraṥiḉ, Mehmed Cero, Isak Abdurahmanoviḉ, and Goran Vukmir. 2013.

“Climate Change Adaptation and Low-Emission Development Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina.” United Nations Development Program in Bosnia and Herzegovina and United Nations Development Programme Regional Office, Bratislava.

Cave, Jonathan., Constantijn van Oranje-Nassau, Helen Rebecca Schindler, Ala’a. Shehabi, Philipp-Bastian Brutscher, Neil. Robinson. 2009.

“Trends in Connectivity Technologies and their Socio-Economic Impacts.” Final Report of the Policy Options for the Ubiquitous Internet Society Study. RAND Europe, Cambridge, UK.

Guerrieri, P., & Padoan, P.C. (2007). “Modelling ICT as a General Purpose Technology: Evaluation Models and Tools for Assessment of Innovation and Sustainable Development at the EU Level.” Collegium 35 (Spring Special Edition).