Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. (2026). Quantifying Conflict & Climate Action in Yemen. University of Denver.

In the fog of one of the 21st century’s most challenging conflicts, the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures provided the world with analysis that changed conversations, funding, and action. The research shifted how people talked about the conflict by providing evidence of the depth of the humanitarian crisis that defined the conflict for the UN Security Council, the United States Congress, and the global press. From the canonical finding of 377,000 deaths to the projection of $93 billion in climate losses, these five reports have transitioned from academic publications to essential diplomatic tools, serving as the primary evidence base for raising awareness about the cost of conflict and providing a roadmap for post-war
reconstruction.

The provided dossier from the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures at the University of Denver details a series of research reports analyzing the humanitarian, economic, and environmental impacts of the war in Yemen. These reports utilize the International Futures (IFs) model to quantify the costs of the conflict and provide a roadmap for post-war recovery.

Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. (2026). A Model for Sustainable Development: the UN & IFs. University of Denver.

In an era defined by intersecting crises—where climate volatility, geopolitical turmoil, and authoritarian backsliding trends intersect—the need for rigorous, long-term analysis has never been more acute. The Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, serves this role in partnership with the United Nations system in pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By providing forecasting infrastructure we enable policymakers around the world to understand development trade-offs and set long term sustainable development strategies.

The Institute’s collaboration with the UN is both deep and broad, bringing academic methods to global governance decision-making and advocacy. The reports appended below highlight work for the UN Secretary General, various UNDP offices, UNICEF, UNEP, and more, including 10 substantive UN reports that demonstrate a constellation of impact on global thinking and action in pursuit of sustainable development.

By providing computational tools that multilateral organizations often lack internally, the Pardee Institute helps expand access to large open-source quantitative modeling tools. This partnership is exemplified by the integration of Pardee’s data into the UNDP Data Futures Platform, where our long-term projections are publicly accessible and interactive for researchers worldwide. Through this and other initiatives, the Institute’s International Futures (IFs) platform has become a foundational tool for strategic planning, helping the world’s largest development agencies analyze post-pandemic recovery, the climate-poverty nexus, and the invisible economy of unpaid care.

Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. (2026). Catalyzing AU development ambition into action: African Union development ambition and International Futures. University of Denver.

For more than 10 years, the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures has worked with the African Union to support long-term development planning using its International Futures (IFs) model. IFs helps leaders explore different future scenarios and understand how policy decisions could affect areas like the economy, education, health, and governance. This work helped shape the African Union's Second Ten-Year Implementation Plan for Agenda 2063 by providing data-driven targets and supporting the development of the plan's seven "Moonshot" priorities.

The Pardee Institute has also used IFs to study important issues across Africa, including trade, food security, COVID-19 recovery, and long-term development. By showing how different parts of society are connected, IFs helps policymakers compare possible outcomes and make better-informed decisions. The partnership has strengthened development planning across the continent by giving African Union institutions and member countries a reliable tool for planning and measuring progress.

Bennett, N., Bloom, D., de la Vega, R., Hanna, T., Lavopa, A., & Prettner, K. (2026, March 23). The future of jobs in an era of demographic and technological transformation. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. 

United Nations Industrial Development Organization has released a new policy brief, The Future of Jobs in an Era of Demographic and Technological Transformation, co-authored by Pardee’s Taylor Hanna. The brief serves as a follow-up to UNIDO’s latest Industrial Development Report, which was supported by Hanna and Pardee Research Associate Bido Ibrahim. Drawing on projections from the International Futures model, the analysis explores how demographic change and automation will reshape global employment by 2050. It highlights stark regional differences, with developing economies facing growing job creation pressures and advanced economies confronting higher risks of automation-driven displacement. Under a moderate automation scenario, global demand for new jobs could grow to one billion—underscoring the need for forward-looking, context-specific policy responses.

United Nations Environment Programme. (2025). Global Environment Outlook 7: A future we choose. United Nations Environment Programme. https://www.unep.org/geo/global-environment-outlook-7

What is the real price tag of delaying climate and nature action by another year—or another decade? 

The United Nations Environment Programme’s Global Environemnt Outlook 7: A future we choose (GEO-7) explores this question. Launched on December 9, 2025, at the seventh UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) in Nairobi, Kenya, GEO-7 is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment to date. Produced by 287 multidisciplinary scientists from 82 countries and reviewed by more than 800 experts and 56 review editors worldwide, the report reflects an effort of remarkable scale, ensuring scientific credibility and global representation.  

The price tag – measured in human and economic costs – of failing to achieve transformative change is steep. GEO-7 finds that continued environmental degradation will drive growing economic losses and could cost tens of millions of lives over the coming decades. Pollution, climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation are already leading to devastating environmental, economic, and human impacts. The outlook emphasizes that these crises are deeply interconnected and that addressing them will require integrated, system-wide solutions across regions and within national governments and societies.  

Crucially, GEO-7 underscores that this future is not inevitable. The report maps out two “Transformation Pathway” scenarios – alternative ways that societies might achieve global environmental goals while supporting economic prosperity. The technology-focused transformation focuses on technological development and efficiency gains. The behavior-focused transformation illuminates how shifts in values and material consumption patterns could drive change. Together, these pathways explore how structural change in energy, food systems, land use, materials and waste, and finance could alter long-term outcomes. 

Taylor Hanna, Associate Director of Development Analysis at the Pardee Institute, and Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Pardee Institute, served as lead authors on Chapters 10 and 11. These chapters map the global implications of the continuation of current trends (Chapter 10) and the pursuit of transformation pathways (Chapter 11). They draw on the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model, used alongside other global environmental and economic models, to explore long-term trajectories for economic, agricultural, and energy indicators.  

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for global partnerships, recognizing that ending poverty is linked to progress in education, energy, and health. The IFs model suggests that under current trends, the world will achieve only modest well-being improvements and miss many SDG targets. Many will still lack basic needs, and disparities between high-income countries and others persist. This highlights an opportunity for countries to align strategies with sustainability and improve well-being. Scenario analysis shows where integrated policies can close gaps and foster inclusive progress. 

By contrast, the Transformation Pathways mapped out in GEO-7 suggest meaningful progress is possible –not only toward global climate goals and stronger economic growth, but also toward improved human well-being worldwide. In the modeling, these pathways lift more than 100 million people out of extreme poverty, 200 million out of hunger, and prevent 9 million premature deaths relative to Current Trends. 

This is the third GEO assessment to which the Pardee Institute and the IFs model have contributed, following earlier involvement in GEO-4 and GEO-6. By contributing to successive GEO assessments, the Pardee Institute continues to provide systems-based long-term analysis as part of a wider international effort to link environmental science with policy decisions. You can access the full GEO-7 report here and view background information, including press releases and the report timeline.  

United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2026). Industrial Development Report 2026: The future of industrialization: Building future-ready industries for sustainable development. UNIDO. https://www.unido.org/publications/industrial-development-report-series

On November 26, 2025, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) launched its Industrial Development Report (IDR), "Industrial Development Report 2026: The future of industrialization: Building future-ready industries for sustainable development," at the Global Industry Summit in Riyadh. The Pardee Institute supported IDR 2026 by providing forecasts and scenario analysis to explore industrial development scenarios out to 2050 and assess how developing countries could leverage an Industrial Push to advance economic and human development. The following Pardee Institute experts supported the production of this edition of the report: Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, Collin J. Meisel, José Solórzano, Yutang Xiong, Solikha Makhmatova and Victoria Pepera.

Sahadevan, D., Irfan, M. T., Luo, C., Moyer, J. D., Mason, C., & Beynon, E. (2025). Charged for change: The case for renewable energy in climate action. UNDP; Pardee Institute for International Futures; Octopus Energy.

Burrows, M., Meisel, C., & Chalikyan, N. (2025). Russia Futures. The Stimson Center.

For decades, Western experts have viewed Russia as a declining power citing a lack of population growth, technology innovation, and a falling GDP for its decline. While it is unlikely to return to its former status, Russia is gaining higher favorability among China, India, and various states across the Global South, establishing alternative multilateral institutions and leaving the West behind. Increased trade with China has nearly met former economic ties with Europe, illustrating a shift in priorities for Putin. The Russian people—trending older—however, would like to see strengthened ties with the United States or other Global South countries. Failure to adjust to the demands of an aging population, while prioritizing commodities and the War in Ukraine could constrain Russian power domestically and globally. Significant investment in the Global South and Central Asia, climate change, and a Northern Sea Route in the Arctic, could shift the narrative for Russia moving forward, revitalizing its power and influence. This report examines three potential scenarios for Russia over the next ten years: a “Sovietized” Russia, set on boosting defense spending; a Great Patriotic War against the West, with Russia increasing its reliance on China; and a Reborn Russia, taking advantage of its geographical ties and influence on the Global South.

Unlocking the Potential of AfCFTA for Africa’s Young Population. (2025, May). Unicef.org. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/reports/unlocking-potential-afcfta-africas-young-population

‌UNICEF and the Pardee Institute recently launched a collaborative report on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and its implications for Africa’s young population, led by Pardee researchers, including Deva Sahadevan, Taylor Hanna, and Jonathan Moyer.

Using our International Futures (IFs) model, the report compares three paths: no AfCFTA, AfCFTA as agreed, and AfCFTA plus strategic investments in education, welfare transfers, and research & development, all the way to 2063. The report recommends that countries put children at the center by investing AfCFTA revenue in education, health, nutrition, and green jobs, while building strong social safety nets. They also need to manage risks like job shifts, environmental impacts, and child protection issues.

Moyer, J., Sahadevan, D. (2024, December). Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/media/10201/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Navigate-Future-Report-2024.pdf

As we move through the twenty-first century, humanity faces a complex array of challenges. These mutually reinforcing issues include climate change and geopolitical instability, as well as persistent socioeconomic disparities that have profound implications for children’s well-being. At such a critical crossroads, policy choices we make today will determine the welfare of future generations. In their interest, addressing this complex web of collective action problems demands a broad-based, integrated analysis focused on comprehensive and equitable solutions.