What is the real price tag of delaying climate and nature action by another year—or another decade? 

The United Nations Environment Programme’s 7th Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7) explores this question. Launched on December 9, 2025, at the seventh UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) in Nairobi, Kenya, GEO-7 is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment to date. Produced by 287 multidisciplinary scientists from 82 countries and reviewed by more than 800 experts and 56 review editors worldwide, the report reflects an effort of remarkable scale, ensuring scientific credibility and global representation.  

The price tag – measured in human and economic costs – of failing to achieve transformative change is steep. GEO-7 finds that continued environmental degradation will drive growing economic losses and could cost tens of millions of lives over the coming decades. Pollution, climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation are already leading to devastating environmental, economic, and human impacts. The outlook emphasizes that these crises are deeply interconnected and that addressing them will require integrated, system-wide solutions across regions and within national governments and societies.  

Crucially, GEO-7 underscores that this future is not inevitable. The report maps out two “Transformation Pathway” scenarios – alternative ways that societies might achieve global environmental goals while supporting economic prosperity. The technology-focused transformation focuses on technological development and efficiency gains. The behavior-focused transformation illuminates how shifts in values and material consumption patterns could drive change. Together, these pathways explore how structural change in energy, food systems, land use, materials and waste, and finance could alter long-term outcomes. 

Taylor Hanna, Associate Director of Development Analysis at the Pardee Institute, and Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Pardee Institute, served as lead authors on Chapters 10 and 11. These chapters map the global implications of the continuation of current trends (Chapter 10) and the pursuit of transformation pathways (Chapter 11). They draw on the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model, used alongside other global environmental and economic models, to explore long-term trajectories for economic, agricultural, and energy indicators.  

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for global partnerships, recognizing that ending poverty is linked to progress in education, energy, and health. The IFs model suggests that under current trends, the world will achieve only modest well-being improvements and miss many SDG targets. Many will still lack basic needs, and disparities between high-income countries and others persist. This highlights an opportunity for countries to align strategies with sustainability and improve well-being. Scenario analysis shows where integrated policies can close gaps and foster inclusive progress. 

By contrast, the Transformation Pathways mapped out in GEO-7 suggest meaningful progress is possible –not only toward global climate goals and stronger economic growth, but also toward improved human well-being worldwide. In the modeling, these pathways lift more than 100 million people out of extreme poverty, 200 million out of hunger, and prevent 9 million premature deaths relative to Current Trends. 

This is the third GEO assessment to which the Pardee Institute and the IFs model have contributed, following earlier involvement in GEO-4 and GEO-6. By contributing to successive GEO assessments, the Pardee Institute continues to provide systems-based long-term analysis as part of a wider international effort to link environmental science with policy decisions. You can access the full GEO-7 report here and view background information, including press releases and the report timeline.  

United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2025. Industrial Development Report 2026. The Future of Industrialization. Building Future-ready Industries for Sustainable Development. Vienna.

On November 26, 2025, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) launched their Industrial Development Report (IDR) at the Global Industry Summit in Riyadh. The Pardee Institute supported IDR 2026 by providing forecasts and scenario analysis to explore industrial development scenarios out to 2050 and assess how developing countries could leverage an Industrial Push to advance economic and human development. The following Pardee Institute experts supported the production of this edition of the report: Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, Collin J. Meisel, José Solórzano, Yutang Xiong, Solikha Makhmatova and Victoria Pepera.

Cilliers, Jake. (2025, February 25). The toll of USAID cuts on Africa. ISS Africa Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-toll-of-USAID-cuts-on-Africa?utm_source=Institute+for+security+studies&utm_campaign=375b5af3bc-Africa_Tomorrow_Blog&utm_

Carbon bargain: The energy transition will be much cheaper than you think. (2024, November 16). The Economist.

Sarah Dickerson, David Bohl, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Alex Porter, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2020.

"Central America and the Carribean Regional Education Report." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Sarah Dickerson, David Bohl, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Alex Porter, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2020.

"The Future of Guatemalan Education." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2020.

"The Future of Honduran Education." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Institute for Security Studies (ISS). 2018. Structural pressures and political instability: Trajectories for sub-Saharan Africa.

Anenberg, Susan C., Joshua Miller, Ray Minjares, et al. 2017. Impacts and Mitigation of Excess Diesel-Related NOx Emissions in 11 Major Vehicle Markets. Nature 545(7655): 467–471.

PwC Mexico and the Pacific Alliance Business Council. 2016. Future of the Pacific Alliance: Integration for productive growth. Mexico.

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