Solórzano, J., Hughes, B., Irfan, M., Xiong, Y., Kwasi, S., Ibrahim, A., Makhamatova, S., Hanna, T., Moyer, J. (2024, December 20). Protocol for making forecasts exogenous in the International Futures model. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xpro.2024.103414

Understanding future dynamics and trends in human and natural development is foundational for creating appropriate policy strategies to address planetary and development challenges. Here, we present a protocol for adding exogenous series for key variables, such as the shared socioeconomic pathways, to the database of the International Futures (IFs) integrated model. We describe steps for installing IFs and the SQLiteStudio software, understanding the IFs database, importing series, running the model, and extracting results.
For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Moyer.

Rafa, Mickey and Kabandula, Abigail and Bohl, David and Yang, Vivian and Kwasi, Stellah and Hanna, Taylor and Moyer, Jonathan D., Advancing Development in Uganda: Evaluating Policy Choices and Their Long-Term Impact (March 25, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4066838

The policy, programming, and donor communities in Uganda face a range of competing priorities that will shape future patterns of development. Various factors will determine which policies should be prioritized, including long-term patterns of human, social and environmental development. This report is motivated by the desire to better understand the future of development in Uganda to support these decision-makers as they choose among various policy options in a future characterized by uncertainty.

Verhagen, W., Bohl, D.K., Cilliers, J., Hughes, B.B., Kwasi, S., McNeil, K., Oosthuizen, M., Picci, L., Yutang Xiong, M., and Moyer, J.D. (2021). "Analysing long-term socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 across diverse African contexts."

Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa.

Porter, A., Bohl, D., Kwasi, S., Donnenfeld, Z., Cilliers, J. (2017, September). "Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development?" Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs.

A report from the African Futures Project, a collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies, uses IFs to assess Mozambique’s long-term development prospects. The discovery that Mozambique holds one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world has generated great optimism about the country’s future. But the recent sovereign debt crisis has cast serious doubt on the ability of the country to effectively manage the associated profits and better promote human development. The report concludes that without a concerted effort to ensure transparent management of gas revenues and channel that windfall into investment in basic human development, the country will continue to face barriers to inclusive growth. Without basic service delivery and better budget management, gas reserves won’t help Mozambique’s poorest.

Porter, Alex, David Bohl, Stellah Kwasi, Zachary Donnenfeld, and Jakkie Cilliers. 2017.

"Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique’s Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040." Developed by the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, South Africa, in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.