Can we actually predict the future?

The short answer is no—but there are lots of useful tools to understand which future conditions and events are more or less certain.

This one-day sprint course, presented by Pardee Institute Director and Korbel Associate Professor Dr. Jonathan D. Moyer equips students with knowledge and tools to navigate between probable continuity and deep uncertainty. Students explore why long-term demographic shifts are knowable decades in advance, while events like financial panics and civil conflicts are much more difficult to foresee.

Working with systems tools and scenario methods, participants unpack their own intuitive mental models, map feedback loops, and analyze how different policy decisions can impact long-term trends in violence, economic prosperity, human wellbeing, and environmental crisis. The course replaces naive crystal-ball predictions with actionable frameworks to evaluate policy tradeoffs, design resilient interventions, and navigate a world where knowledge is always incomplete. Students will gain knowledge and skills relevant to future careers in public policy, international affairs, business, and non-profits.

Lunch provided. To register, please email Mayumi Beckelheimer, Director of Undergraduate Programs, at [email protected].

 

How can long-term analysis help decision-makers prepare for futures that are uncertain, interconnected, and still partly knowable? 

That question guided a three-day foresight and forecasting training in Rwanda, from May 4th to the 6th, where the Pardee Institute joined Rwanda’s National Council for Science and Technology, AUDA-NEPAD, and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) to introduce participants to International Futures (IFs), Pardee’s open-source, integrated forecasting platform.  

Led in part by Taylor Hanna, Associate Director of Development Analysis at Pardee, the training brought together 33 participants for hands-on engagement with IFs. Over the three days, participants explored the model, built and tested scenarios, and discussed how integrated forecasts can support long-term planning across complex development systems. 

The training connected continental and national planning questions. Participants examined how IFs supported analysis related to the African Union’s Agenda 2063 Second Ten-Year Implementation Plan and considered how scenario-based approaches can inform Rwanda’s Vision 2050. Hanna stated, “This kind of analysis helps bridge the gap between long-term ambitions such as Vision 2050 and Agenda 2063 and the practical steps needed to achieve them.” Rather than treating development goals as isolated targets, IFs enables users to explore how changes in areas such as education, health, infrastructure, governance, economics, and the environment may interact over time. The participants tested a scenario to explore the effects of meeting national R&D investment targets on productivity.  

The training also builds on Pardee’s longstanding relationships with ISS and AUDA-NEPAD. Through the African Futures Project, Pardee has collaborated with both institutions to support long-term strategic analysis across the African continent. AUDA-NEPAD’s mandate includes strengthening the capacity of African Union member states and regional bodies, while ISS’s African Futures and Innovation program provides forward-looking policy analysis on Africa’s development prospects using dynamic forecasting tools. 

“What stood out most was the enthusiasm participants brought to thinking about Rwanda’s future. Putting integrated forecasting and scenario tools in the hands of policymakers allows them to test ideas, explore alternative futures, and better understand how decisions in one area affect outcomes across the development system,” reflected Hanna. For Pardee, this exchange reflected one of the central purposes of capacity-building: creating space for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to work with shared tools, transparent assumptions, and a common language for thinking about the future. 

Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer recently traveled to Geneva to participate in the World Economic Forum’s Global Foresight Network, where he was invited to bring a quantitative perspective to an international gathering of foresight practitioners from governments, international organizations, and the private sector. 

Across sectors, foresight teams help decision-makers consider uncertainty, imagine alternative futures, and develop scenarios that can inform planning. Much of that work relies on qualitative methods, including narratives, participatory exercises, and structured discussions about what could change. 

Moyer’s contribution centered on a complementary question: How can foresight remain open to uncertainty while also drawing on empirical evidence about durable trends and systems-level change? 

During a panel on quantitative approaches, Moyer introduced International Futures (IFs), the Pardee Institute’s integrated forecasting platform. IFs supports scenario-based analysis across human, social, natural, economic, and geopolitical systems. Rather than predicting a single future, the platform helps users examine plausible pathways under different assumptions and trace how changes in one system may affect others over time. 

For foresight practitioners, that kind of integrated modeling can provide an empirical backbone for scenario work. Qualitative approaches help decision-makers imagine possible futures, surface assumptions, and consider emerging risks. Quantitative tools such as IFs can then help test how those assumptions interact with structural trends, including demographic change, economic growth, education, governance, infrastructure, health, energy, and international relations. 

The exchange reflected a central feature of Pardee’s approach: future-oriented analysis is strongest when evidence and imagination work together. Forecasting without narrative can miss the human, institutional, and political context that shapes decisions. Foresight without empirical grounding can struggle to distinguish between what is merely possible and what is more plausible given long-running patterns and system relationships. 

By bringing IFs into the discussion, Moyer offered a way to connect those approaches. The presentation prompted questions about durable trends, transparent assumptions, and the role of integrated modeling in helping organizations think more clearly about uncertainty. 

 The Geneva gathering also placed Pardee’s work in conversation with a broader community of people shaping how institutions prepare for the future. For governments, companies, and international organizations, the challenge is not simply to anticipate change. It is to understand which forces are likely to persist, which assumptions need to be tested, and how choices made today could shape outcomes across connected systems. 

For Pardee, the trip underscored the continuing relevance of IFs as both a research platform and a public resource. Built over decades, the platform helps users move from broad questions about the future to more structured analysis of plausible pathways, tradeoffs, and long-term implications. 

What’s next for global climate change scenarios through the end of this century and beyond?  

At the Pardee Institute’s third Lunch and Learn seminar on April 30th, Director Jonathan Moyer traced the evolution of integrated assessment modeling, from early world models of the 1970s to today’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and explained why researchers are now revisiting the assumptions that shape long-term climate futures through an initiative dubbed the Scenario Evolution Process (SEP). 

SEP, Moyer explained, is a multi-year, community-led effort to revise and extend the SSPs used across climate research. It aims to be an important knowledge-sharing mechanism for climate change modeling. The International Committee On New Integrated Climate Change Assessment Scenarios (ICONICS) is the main coordinating body. The Pardee Institute, Moyer shared, is actively involved in the effort on several fronts.  

The Pardee Institute is hosting the main SEP website and conducting the first global survey to inform the SEP’s strategic direction and planning for 2026, as well as help shape the broader multi-year process through 2030. This survey is open to members of the general public, and to researchers and practitioners familiar with the SSPs.   

Pardee’s role in SEP builds on the Institute’s long history in global modeling. Moyer traced that history to the 1970s through the 1980s, when Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) began linking population, industrialization, natural resources, and other forces within a unified systems framework. That shift, he noted, challenged the idea of a fixed future by showing how policy choices, structural forces, and feedback loops could produce a range of plausible pathways. Pardee’s leading global modeling tool, International Futures (IFs), emerged from this early wave of world modeling and was among the first to broaden this novel systems approach to encompass a wider set of interconnected human, social, and natural system dynamics.   

More innovations in climate research followed this shift to a systems approach, Moyer expounded. From the 1990s to the late 2000s, climate scenario development largely followed a “Sequential Modeling” process, with socioeconomic storylines and emissions pathways developed in stages. The SSP framework gave researchers a shared set of five socioeconomic narratives, while Representative Concentration Pathways described different levels of climate forcing. Around 2010, the research community moved to a “Parallel Process,” which decoupled physical climate targets from the SSPs, enabling researchers to conduct multi-dimensional risk assessments.  

Moyer noted that researchers have recently recognized the need for a revised set of scenarios as they consider how to expand the SSPs framework to incorporate biodiversity and well-being into climate scenarios, inspiring the SEP effort currently underway. 

Following the Lunch and Learn presentation, Moyer fielded questions from the audience regarding the IFs model’s data sources, its forecasting capabilities across 188 countries, and the emergence of the SEP in light of technological advancements like artificial intelligence.   

Interested in staying engaged in the evolution process? Explore the SEP website for the latest updates and opportunities to participate, including the global survey. 

By: Wara Irfan

“We are living in a period of two crises,” said Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. While the climate crisis receives widespread attention, he noted, a second crisis often gets “less coverage”. That is the human development crisis. “There are 700 million people in the world living in abject poverty.”  

Moyer made these remarks while introducing the new report, Charged for Change: The Case for Renewable Energy in Climate Action, published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in partnership with the Pardee Institute and Octopus Energy. He was joined by former Colorado Governor Bill Ritter (2007–2011), whose distinctive record of building a “New Energy Economy” framework, which links climate, jobs, utility policy, public health, and economic development, sets him apart from both his predecessors and many of his contemporaries. The report’s lead author, Chibulu Luo, Ph.D., joined Dr. Moyer and the Hon. Bill Ritter for a discussion on how renewable energy can simultaneously advance climate action and human development. “What this report does is help chart a path forward for achieving both,” Moyer emphasized. 

Deva Sahadevan, Senior Research Associate at the Pardee Institute, presented the report’s key findings, followed by a panel discussion moderated by Moyer and an audience Q&A. Using the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model, researchers examined three scenarios: (1) a Base Case in which the world remains on a warming trajectory under current trends of development, (2) a Renewable Acceleration (RA) scenario where there is accelerated global investment in renewables, and (3) an RA+SDG scenario where these renewable investments are paired with targeted investments in health, education, governance, and infrastructure. 

Deva Sahadevan presents an overview of the report. Photograph taken by Megan Livengood. 

The study found that RA+ SDG can significantly advance human development while also improving climate outcomes in the long run. Compared to the Base Case, this pathway could lift an additional 193 million people out of extreme poverty, reduce malnutrition for 142 million people, and expand access to clean water and sanitation to 550 million more people by 2060 - all within a 1.5°C-aligned future. In contrast, the RA scenario showed only modest improvements to human development, suggesting that climate action alone is insufficient to balance the dual imperatives of addressing climate change and improving human well-being. 

Although the RA + SDG pathway requires substantial upfront investment, the long-term payoff is considerable. By 2060, cumulative savings could reach approximately $20.4 trillion by 2060, driven by energy efficiency gains, declining renewable costs, and a shift in capital from fossil fuels to clean energy, while keeping global warming closer to internationally agreed targets. 

Speakers grounded these modeling results in real-world practice. Dr. Luo described how UNDP uses country-level evidence to show how energy policy decisions intersect with priorities in finance, health , and gender, helping government ministries see climate action as integral to development planning. She highlighted examples such as electrified irrigation and solar-powered health facilities in Zambia, alongside a strong policy focus on clean cooking. “It is a smart economic choice for countries to invest in renewables,” she said, noting that the report provides governments with “real numbers” demonstrating the development benefits of a renewable energy transition as they shape climate and development strategies.
Dr. Chibulu Luo addresses the audience. Photograph taken by Megan Livengood. 

Former Governor Ritter shared lessons from Colorado on scaling renewable energy, supporting workforce transitions, and building financing mechanisms that make clean energy both feasible and equitable. Reflecting on his time in office, he remarked, “Colorado is a fascinating little Petri dish” where “development and climate action are not mutually exclusive,” according to him. He stressed that these goals are not opposing values but can be pursued together. The former governor also warned that if the United States retreats from global engagement on climate, human development, and sustainable energy, it risks missing a critical opportunity to lead and make a meaningful impact. 
Former Colorado governor Bill Ritter shares his insights. Photograph taken by Megan Livengood.  

Dr. Luo added that what gives her hope is the evidence showing that a renewable energy transition can deliver substantial benefits for both people and the planet, benefits that are often even greater in developing countries. 

Furthermore, the event drew practitioners, entrepreneurs, researchers, policymakers, and students. The audience's Q&A ranged widely, from clean-cooking and carbon markets to bio and nuclear energy, land use, and the big question of growth versus sustainability. A former off-grid entrepreneur raised the recent KOKO Network cass in which a bioethanol cookstove provider lost access to carbon-credit approval in Kenya, leaving millions of customers at risk; in response, Dr. Luo described how national carbon-market regulations, multilateral guarantees, and blended or concessional finance all matter for managing investor risk and protecting access to clean-cooking solutions, noting Kenya is also exploring electric-cooking options. 

Another audience member inquired about bioenergy’s role in future energy mixes and lessons from past biofuel investments. The former Governor answered that bioenergy, carbon capture, and related technologies deserve further development, and that policy tools (tax credits, public investment) and learning about real costs will shape their viability. Sahadevan also addressed broader concerns about growth and equity, noting the report’s framing: modeled pathways highlight a tension between urgently reducing emissions and enabling the growth many low-income countries still need, so solutions will require careful mixes of investment, redistribution, and locally appropriate policies.

The discussion concluded with a reminder that climate action and human development need not compete. “The choices we make today will have long-term implications,” Moyer said. The session underscored the importance of a data-driven foresight in shaping country-level dialogue, financing strategies, social investments, and governance reforms, key elements for achieving a just and sustainable energy transition. 

How do we model a just energy transition? How might scenario modeling shape policy & planning discourse? These were the key questions explored at the Pardee Institute’s Lunch and Learn series, following the Charged for Change: The case for renewable energy in climate action launch event on February 4th.

Charged for Change emerged from a collaboration between the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Sustainable Energy hub, Octopus Energy, and the Pardee Institute. The report links renewable energy, climate commitments, and human development outcomes.

At the Lunch and Learn event, the presenters focused on different aspects of the research process, including an in-depth look at integrated energy modeling using IFs, contextualizing UNDP’s role in supporting sustainable energy and inclusive development efforts, and reflecting on real-world applications through a case study highlighting Nigeria.

Following opening remarks from Pardee Director Dr. Jonathan Moyer, the report’s lead author, Dr. Chibulu Luo of UNDP, outlined the organization’s role in advancing sustainable energy and inclusive development. A key facet of that work revolves around UNDP’s Climate Promise initiative, which supports developing countries in implementing and strengthening their climate commitments.

Deva Sahadevan, Senior Research Associate at Pardee and co-author of the report, then unpacked the key research questions and assumptions behind Charged for Change. With help from Pardee researchers and fellows, the Pardee Institute conducted an extensive literature review and synthesized more than one hundred fifty data tables to structure three long-term scenarios:

• A Base Case depicting the current trajectory
• A Renewable Acceleration scenario
• A combined Renewable Acceleration + SDGs scenario

Pardee Senior Scientist Dr. Mohammod Irfan, further elaborated on the IFs model and discussed the conceptual underpinnings of modeling energy systems in IFs. Dr. Irfan mentioned how the IFs platform has a unique ability to map energy and economic models in tandem. By exploring multiple indicators at once, IFs forecasts help policymakers and others better understand intertwined dynamics within and across global systems.

Dr. Irfan also touched on the overall model structure, methodology, and enhancements made to address the key research questions in this study. For instance, the IFs model originally analyzed six energy types (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, and an aggregated category of ‘other renewables’) and featured older cost structures for renewables. To address these limitations, IFs expanded its energy model to nine energy types and updated the cost structures.

Following presentations on the study’s research approach and motivations, the event pivoted to a case study in Nigeria to highlight the real world applications of the work. Dr. Geoffrey Omedo, a technical expert who provided comprehensive feedback on the report’s case study, reflected on Nigeria’s dual identity as both an energy access and energy-transition country. Dr. Omedo’s comments underscored the importance of using a balanced approach towards global energy policy, backed by country government support.

Following the panelists’ presentations, the floor opened to an audience Q&A. The audience raised questions spanning the global implications of the Renewable Acceleration + SDGs scenario and the domestic realities on the ground while Nigeria navigates the evolving renewable energy landscape.

Charged for Change was written by Luo, C., Sahadevan, D., Irfan, M.T., Moyer, J.D., Mason, C., & Beynon, E.

To access the full Charged for Change report, click here.

 

How do leaders shape, and how are they shaped, by international relations? What drives a leader to travel from one country to another or to any other place in the world? What can we learn about travel, trade, conflict, diplomacy, democracy, and other interconnected systems by researching the travel patterns of country and organization leaders? These central questions drive the Pardee Institute’s decade-long COLT (Country and Organization Leader Travel) project, which the U.S. Government sponsors.  

The Pardee Institute explored these and related research questions for an audience of faculty, students, and staff from the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs (the Korbel School) during its first-ever Lunch and Learn seminar. 

Following an introduction of the COLT dataset and Lunch and Learn series by Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer, Pardee Institute COLT Program Manager Kylie McKee, and Director of Analysis Collin Meisel took turns presenting on different facets of the COLT project.  

The COLT project captures data on Heads of Government and State (HOGS) travel from 1990 through the present day for 212 countries and territories. This scale of data collection requires large-scale infrastructure and staff, from coders to vetters to team leads (all positions held by students), until ultimately the data reaches McKee and Meisel.  

This dataset tracks over 43 variables and 70 biographical variables for each leader, creating an extensive dataset that requires countless hours to track and ensure accuracy, McKee described. McKee went on to detail her team’s research protocol: monthly updates to the data, as well as annual public reports, made possible by weekly tracking of HOGS travel, reviews of data for errors and/or gaps, and extensive final reviews. This work is divided into four groups of RAs who research HOGS from specific regions of the world. 

In Meisel’s words, the COLT dataset is not trying to prove cause and effect; it is trying to see “what moves together.” Meisel, McKee, and their team of student researchers have found the frequency and destination of world leader visits correlate strongly with material interests (such as trade, arms deals, and foreign aid), institutional co-membership (like NATO or the EU), and patterns of conflict. This research matters because diplomatic travel provides a high-frequency, actionable indicator of shifting geopolitical affinities and power dynamics. 

Another question that the COLT project is attempting to tackle is the puzzle of leader travel. With all the modern advances in technology —from phone calls to video conferencing —along with the time and potential dangers involved in traveling, what are the benefits of leaders traveling abroad to meet with other leaders in person? The literature suggests that travel plays a significant role in shaping leader opinions, as seen in trade and relationships between HOGS, Meisel explained. However, most of this literature is focused on one country or a region of the world. The COLT project addresses a major missing piece of the puzzle – its scope is global, making it truly unique and a flagship project for this sort of data collection. 

Because the data is so exhaustive, it can be challenging to know for sure how much of it is captured by the researchers—is it simply the tip of the iceberg, with much concealed beneath the surface, or is most of it visible to these teams? To address these demands, McKee answered that the teams on Pardee’s COLT project are always innovating their methods and processes so that the data can be better used as a resource and source of lessons for future data gathering. For example, McKee shared that Pardee will soon use AI to streamline its data by gathering qualitative information in a systematic format for analysis. 

The event ended with a question-and-answer portion, filled with questions ranging from the use of the data set as a diagnostic tool to which regions have the most tracked travel to if the project had any student position openings. Other questions addressed the uses of AI, how the COLT data is utilized, and where it is sourced.  

To learn more about the COLT Project, access the COLT data, or read the COLT analysis published in International Studies Quarterly, click here.  

This inaugural Lunch and Learn event is part of a new series of Pardee-hosted lunchtime seminars designed to inform the broader Korbel School community about the research approach and applications of the Pardee Institute's work. 

By: Wara Irfan

Africa faces its own unique development challenges, aspirations, and constraints, said Senior Researcher Alize le Roux of the Institute of Security Studies’ African Futures & Innovation (AFI) program during a conversation hosted by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute on September 9, 2025. The event, moderated by Awa Sanneh, President of Students for Africa at Joseph Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, included a lively discussion and audience Q&A.

Joined by fellow ISS AFI Senior Researcher and economist Blessing Chipanda, le Roux emphasized that the African Union’s Agenda 2063 serves as a “blueprint” for the continent, aligning individual national development plans with a broader vision encompassing all 54 African countries. Agenda 2063 is Africa’s 50-year plan to become prosperous, integrated, and peaceful through seven aspirations and successive Ten-Year Plans.

The ISS is a leading Pan-African think tank dedicated to research and policy engagement on issues of human security. For nearly 15 years, ISS has partnered with the Pardee Institute to use the International Futures (IFs) model. Together, they build knowledge about Africa’s development pathways and create alternative scenarios to help policymakers shape strategies for improved outcomes. ISS and Pardee also collaborate with the AU and its Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) to inform key aspects of Agenda 2063.

Le Roux and Chipanda began by walking the audience through two of the more than 4,000 interactive graphs available on the African Futures website, which employs IFs, to show how long-term forecasting and scenario planning can inform Africa’s development trajectory and support Agenda 2063.

Alize le Roux addresses the audience. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman.

The first graph explored GDP per capita in Africa relative to the rest of the world from 1960 to 2023. While Africa’s GDP per capita has been “growing since 1960 to 2023, [...] it's growing very slowly in relation to that of the rest of the world,” le Roux said, noting that the gap has widened, from roughly $2,700 in 1960 to just under $15,000 in 2023, and is projected to exceed $21,000 by 2043. 

The takeaway, she underscored, is that there is wealth generation on the continent, but it is “very unequally distributed” and “not translating into real poverty reduction”.

The second graph focused on poverty trends.  While the UN Sustainable Development Goal is to reduce poverty to below 3% by 2030, AFI projections show that Africa’s poverty could remain around 26% in 2030 without significant intervention.

“This is really the foundation of our work,” she said. They  AFI considers Africa’s current development trajectory, or the Current Path, and explore how policies and scenarios can accelerate development and reduce poverty more rapidly.

Chipanda then introduced AFI’s scenario analysis approach, which explores how targeted policy interventions might alter these trends. AFI has developed eight sectoral scenarios, covering governance, demographics and health, agriculture, education, manufacturing, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), large Infrastructure and leapfrogging, and financial flows, and then combines them into a “Combined Scenario” that estimates the overall impact on development outcomes. 

Blessing Chipanda gives an overview of the African Futures website. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman. 

“Our analyses are done at the country level. Then we form what is called a Combined Scenario,” Chipanda explained. He highlighted results showing that agriculture, infrastructure, and manufacturing have the greatest impact on GDP per capita across different country income groups. For extreme poverty, the Combined Scenario showed a decline from 385 million people, forecasted by the Current Path, to 168 million by 2043.

Both speakers emphasized the importance of open access to these data and scenarios. Everything they produce is publicly accessible, Chipanda said, encouraging students and researchers to explore interactive graphs on their website and country reports online.

Jonathan D. Moyer leads a structured conversation with le Roux and Chipanda. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman.

Following the presentation, Pardee Institute Director Jonathan D. Moyer led the conversation with le Roux and Chipanda on career pathways and lessons learned in development work. 

Le Roux reflected on her 14 years working in research and development before joining AFI. “Good research does not automatically speak for itself,” she said. One can produce excellent tools and findings, but if they are not effectively communicated to decision-makers, they will not drive change. She also stressed the importance of networks, and as a student, it is important to build relationships as they will matter later in your career.  

Chipanda shared how his background in economics led him to scenario building and modeling, highlighting the collaborative nature of AFI’s work with policymakers across Africa. 

The event concluded with an open Q&A, moderated by Sanneh, with students asking about the challenges of aligning national development plans with continental goals, the role of governance reforms, and the future updates to AFI’s scenarios. 

The session highlighted the power of data-driven foresight in shaping policy and offered students and researchers a practical view of how models like IFs can address some of Africa’s most pressing development challenges. 

 

 

 

March 2025 | Skopje, North Macedonia

The Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures at the University of Denver recently led a week-long training in Skopje, North Macedonia. The training helped government officials, researchers, and development practitioners use the Institute’s flagship International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to support the country’s National Development Strategy (2024–2044).

Taylor Hanna, Associate Director of Development Analysis at the Pardee Institute, led the training. Eleven participants joined from the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, the Faculty of Economics in Skopje, the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of North Macedonia, the General Secretariat of the Government, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) North Macedonia. In addition, Aleksandar Stojkov of Ss. Cyril and Methodius University provided local support for the workshop.

The training builds upon Pardee's longstanding collaboration with UNDP North Macedonia. After supporting the development of the country's National Development Strategy using the International Futures model, the Institute returned to help ensure that local institutions have the capacity to use IFs independently for evidence-based planning, policy analysis, and long-term forecasting.

Throughout the week, participants received hands-on instruction covering installation of the IFs platform, data review and validation, scenario development, and policy analysis. They also updated North Macedonia’s national data in the model. Then, working together, they refined development scenarios based on feedback and discussion during the workshop.

As a result, government and academic partners can better monitor progress toward the goals in the National Development Strategy. They can also explore alternative development pathways and bring long-term forecasting into public decision-making.

The activity was conducted in partnership with UNDP North Macedonia as part of the "Support to Public Finance Management Reform" project, funded by the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic through the "Public and Private Finance for Development Programme."

November 4-6, 2024

Jonathan Moyer, the director of the Pardee Institute, recently traveled to Seoul, South Korea, to present a paper at the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) conference. The paper, titled “Quantifying the roads ahead broadly: forecasts of the SSPs across demographics, conflict, economics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance for 188 countries to 2200,” introduces new Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios developed using the International Futures (IFs) model.

The IAMC is an international consortium of research institutions developing and using integrated assessment models to study global environmental change and socioeconomic development. Its annual meeting is a major forum for exchanging ideas and research on integrated assessment modeling.

The SSPs are a scenario framework used in various sustainability-related research efforts, including as inputs into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. The scenarios show five standard pathways of human and social development in the absence of climate policy or climate change impacts to frame worlds with different challenges to climate mitigation and adaptation.

This new SSP series introduced by Moyer and colleagues at the Pardee Institute represents a broader set of issue areas than the current SSP framework, including dynamically interconnected forecasts of economics, demographics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance. This series is also projected to reach 2150, allowing climate models to forecast granular change in development further into the future compared with existing SSPs that end in 2100.

"The new SSP elements provide a more comprehensive and integrated view of the future," said Moyer. "This will be valuable for researchers studying the impacts of climate change and other global challenges." Future plans include submitting this work for peer review and publication and making the new scenario results available via the IIASA website.