Meisel, C. (2023, December 1). Can China’s Baby Bust Be Reversed? Don’t Count On It. Time Magazine. https://time.com/6341316/china-baby-bust-demographics/

In late October, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the National Women’s Congress that “We should actively foster a new type of marriage and childbearing culture.” Such a statement is rich coming from a man, especially one who leads a party that for decades actively and sometimes brutally enforced family planning policies. It is also delusional: In all probability, China’s baby bust cannot be reversed, at least not anytime soon.

Meisel, C., & McKee, K. (2023, August 2). The trouble with labeling China an 'enemy'. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4131578-the-trouble-with-labeling-china-an-enemy/

“I think China’s an enemy. I think we have to take them incredibly seriously,” Nikki Haley recently said. Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and current GOP presidential candidate, had other incendiary remarks to share on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” accusing China of “killing Americans,” a reference to Beijing’s failure to curb shipment of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico, which are then smuggled into the U.S.

By: Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel & Austin S. Matthews (2023) Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image, Journal of Contemporary China, 32:140, 191-206, DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2022.2071879

In this article published in the Journal of Contemporary China, Assistant Professor and Pardee Center Director Dr. Jonathan Moyer, Pardee Center senior research associate Collin Meisel, and former Pardee Center research scientist Dr. Austin Matthews find that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition.

In December 2021, Senior Research Associate Taylor Hanna presented the Pardee Institute's research on the impacts of conflict on human development in Yemen at an event hosted by the Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen (OSESGY). The OSESGY convened a group of 16 Yemeni businesswomen in Amman for a series of consultations over several days designed to solicit participants’ views on the peace process, the effects of the conflict on the private sector and business community, and broader economic issues and challenges faced by businesswomen in Yemen. Taylor joined remotely and presented an overview of the report’s findings and dug deeper into the Empowered Women scenario to explore the critical role of women for Yemen’s post-conflict recovery. The presentation was followed by a Q&A and discussion.

Moyer Jonathan D., David K. Bohl, Taylor Hanna, Brendan R. Mapes, and Mickey Rafa. 2019.

“Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen”. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for UNDP (2019).

Moyer, J.D., Bohl, D.K., Hanna, T., Mapes, B.R. and Rafa, M. (2019).“Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen”. Frederick S. Denver: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. UN Report.

Prior to the escalation of conflict in 2015, development in Yemen was strained. A country of 30 million people, Yemen ranked: (a) 153rd on the Human Development Index (HDI); (b) 138th in extreme poverty; (c) 147th in life expectancy; (d) 172nd in educational attainment; and, (e) was in the World Bank low-middle income category. Projections suggest that Yemen would not have achieved any of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 even in the absence of conflict.

Jonathan D. Moyer, Taylor Hanna, David K. Bohl, Brendan R. Mapes. 2019.

"Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen on Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).". Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for UNDP.

Strategic Studies Network. 2014. “(R)EVOLUTION.” Summary Proceedings of the Strategic Studies Summit, Bangkok, February 23−25.

McCauley, Dan. 2014. “U.S. – Iran Rapprochement: A Counterintuitive Alternative to Thirty-five Years of Distrust.” Small Wars Journal. Posted January 19.