Moyer, J. D. (2023, September 25). Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 15996. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42782-

Degrowth advocates argue for structural transformations in how economies and societies prioritize material wealth accumulation to reduce the negative effects of future anthropogenic climate change. Degrowth proponents argue that human economic activity could be lessened, and societies transformed to prioritize improved wellbeing, reducing the threat of climate change. This paper explores implications of alternative patterns of economic growth with transformational policy pathways (i.e., redistribution) to assess what effects economic growth and broader policies have on changing patterns of human development across both the Global North and South. Using the International Futures model, this article shows that negative growth and societal transformations in the Global North are possible without dramatically damaging long-term global socioeconomic development, though these interventions do not solve the global climate crisis, reducing future cumulative carbon emissions by 10.5% through 2100. On the other hand, a global negative growth scenario will significantly reduce future cumulative carbon emissions (45%) but also dramatically undermines the pursuit of global development goals, like the elimination of poverty. Even with global policies that significantly increase cash transfers to the poor and retired, dramatically improve income inequality, and eliminate military spending, the Global Negative Growth Big Push scenario leads to an increase of 15 percentage points in global extreme poverty by 2100.

Burgess, M.G., Langendorf, R.E., Moyer, J.D. et al. (2023, June 22). Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. Commun Earth Environ 4(220). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7.

Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rising, then declining, as regions become richer. An empirically fitted differential-equation model and an integrated assessment model—International Futures—accounting for this pattern both predict 21st-century economic outlooks with slow growth and income convergence compared to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, similar to SSP4 (“Inequality”). For World Bank income groups, the differential-equation model could have produced, from 1980, consistent projections of 2100 GDP per capita, and more accurate predictions of 2010s growth rates than the International Monetary Fund’s short-term forecasts. Both forecasts were positively biased for the low-income group. SSP4 might therefore represent a best-case—not worst-case—scenario for 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. International Futures projects high poverty and population growth, and moderate energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions, within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway range.

Full Citation: Meisel, Collin, Jonathan Moyer, and Mathew J. Burrows. 2023. “The US is losing the Global South: How to reverse course.” The Hill.

On its present course, the U.S. is set to be overtaken by China as the world’s leading influencer within the next 25 years.

Chinese influence has already surpassed the U.S. in 61 countries due to its substantial trade, investment and development assistance, according to a study we made of influence between pairs of states from 1960 onward with forecasts through mid-century across economic, political and security dimensions. China’s “inroads” include particularly Africa and Central and Southeast Asia in addition to eroding U.S. advantages virtually everywhere else.

Full Citation: Meisel, Collin J., Caleb L. Petry, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Mathew Burrows. n.d. “Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios.” Stimson.

Putin’s invasion and Xi’s pandemic mismanagement have opened a narrow window of strategic opportunity for the West

By: Moyer, J. D. (2023a). Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty. World Development, 165, 106188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106188

A new publication uses the International Futures Platform to forecast 12 scenarios that forecast the number of people in 179 countries who will live in poverty due to intrastate conflict in 2030, 2050 and 2070. Findings show that a baseline conflict scenario leads to an additional 148.2 million people living in extreme poverty due to conflict by 2030 compared with a scenario where conflict is eliminated starting in 2022. These conflict-attributable poor represent 20.1% of the population in extreme poverty at that time, with the majority living in South Asia followed by Africa. By 2050 the population living in conflict-attributable poverty increases to 164.9 million, representing 32.7% of the total extremely poor population at that time with the majority living in Africa.

Full Citation: Sahadevan, D., Hanna, T., Moz-Christofoletti, M. A., Orlic, E., Okiya, S., Abidoye, B., & Moyer, J. D. (2023). UNDP. https://data.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke476/files/2023-11/20230606_Universal-Electrification-Research-Report.pdf

Pushing for universal electricity access through Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) interventions can have powerful multi-faceted effects across economic and human development. Despite its benefits, expanding electricity access comes with significant costs that may require trade-offs in fiscal choices. By using futures modelling that captures both synergies and trade-offs of pursuing particular SDG targets, UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures (University of Denver) assessed the current state of electricity access and modelled different pathways to achieving significant milestones in electricity access, including the UN-Energy Pledge and the UNDP commitments. Read the official report and others here.

Modelling Universal Access
Development Impacts of Electrification

Annual Update for the Pardee Center for International Futures, 2021-2022.

The International Futures (IFs) forecasting system is central to much of the Pardee Center’s work, constantly helping us to understand, explore, and communicate the complex reality in which we live and the alternative futures that might be brought into being. Over the past year, main thrusts of model development included: (1) strengthening the model’s representation of global crises (in this case, the COVID-19 pandemic); (2) enhancing analysis of progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); (3) improving our ability to analyze the pursuit of food security; (4) supporting data initialization; and (5) continuing to improve its User Interface.

Full Citation: Verhagen, W. (2022) "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Reduction of Child Stunting Over the Next Two Decades." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for USAID.

Full Citation: Verhagen, W. (2022) "Unpacking the Impacts of COVID-19 on Long-Term Food Security." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for USAID.

Unpacking the impacts of COVID-19 on long-term food security. (2022, April). Verhagen, W. USAID.