Hughes, B. B., Solórzano, J., & Rothman, D. S., Irfan, R. I., Sahadevan, D. (2025, November 11). IFs energy model documentation. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. https://pardeewiki.du.edu/index.php?title=Energy

Hughes, Barry B., José R. Solórzano, and Dale S. Rothman. 2014. "IFs Energy Model Documentation." Working paper 2014.10.17. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

Full Citation: Rothman, D. S., Hughes, B. B., & Narayan, K. (2017). IFs agriculture model documentation. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver.

Dale S. Rothman, Hughes, Barry B., and Kanishka Narayan. 2017. "IFs Agriculture Model Documentation." Working paper 2017.07.04. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

Dale S. Rothman, Barry B. Hughes, and Kanishka Narayan

The IFs agricultural model tracks the supply and demand, including imports, exports, and prices, of three agricultural commodities: crops, meat, and fish. Crops, meat and fish have direct food, animal feed, industrial and food manufacturing uses. The agricultural model is also where land use dynamics and water use are tracked in IFs, as these are key resources for the agricultural sector.

The structure of the agriculture model is very much like that of the economic model. It combines a growth process with a partial economic equilibrium process using stocks and prices to seek a balance between the demand and supply sides. As in the economic model, no effort is made in the standard adjustment mechanism to obtain a precise equilibrium in any time step. Instead stocks serve as a temporary buffer and the model chases equilibrium over time.

The most important linkages between the agriculture model and other models within IFs are with the economic model. The economic model provides forecasts of average income levels, labor supply, total consumer spending, and agricultural investment, all of which are used in the agriculture model. In turn, the agriculture model provides forecasts on agricultural production, imports, exports, and demand for investment, which override the sectoral computations in the economic model. The agricultural model also has important links to the population and health models, using population forecasts and providing forecasts of calorie availability.

Kuhn, Randall, Dale S. Rothman, Sara Turner, José Solórzano, and Barry Hughes. 2016.

"Beyond Attributable Burden: Estimating the Avoidable Burden of Disease Associated with Household Air Pollution." PLoS ONE 11(3): e0149669. PLOS, San Franciso, California. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0149669

Hedden, Steve, Barry B. Hughes, Dale S. Rothman, Alanna J. Markle, Joel Maweni, and Ibrahim A. Mayaki. 2016.

"Ending Hunger in Africa: The Elimination of Hunger and Food Insecurity on the African Continent by 2025: Conditions for Success." Invited Research Paper for The New Partnership for African Development Planning and Coordinating Agency. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

Hughes, Barry B., Randall Kuhn, Eli S. Margolese-Malin, Dale S. Rothman, and José R. Solórzano. 2015. “Opportunities and Challenges of a World with Negligible Senescence.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 99: 77–91.

O’Neill, Brian C., Elmar Kriegler, Kristie L. Ebi, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Keywan Riahi, Dale S. Rothman, Bas J. Van Ruijven, et al. 2015.

“The Roads Ahead: Narratives for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Describing World Futures in the 21st Century.” Global Environmental Change. Currently available online at https://www.journals.elsevier.com/global-environmental-change; print version will appear in September 2015 issue.

Hughes, Barry B., Randall Kuhn, Eli S. Margolese-Malin, Dale S. Rothman, and José R. Solórzano. 2014.

“Opportunities and Challenges of a World with Negligible Senescence.” Final Report to the SENS Foundation. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.