Hanna, T., Hughes, B.B., Irfan, M.T., Bohl, D.K., Solórzano et al. (2024, April 16). Sustainable Development Goal Attainment in the Wake of COVID-19: Simulating an Ambitious Policy Push. Sustainability. 3309. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083309

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the world was not on course to meet key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Some significant degree of additional effort was needed before the pandemic, and the challenge is now greater. Analyzing the prospects for meeting these goals requires attention to the combined effects of the pandemic and such additional impetus. This article assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on progress toward the SDGs and explores strategies to recover and accelerate development. Utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and recognizing the near impossibility of meeting the goals by 2030, three scenarios are examined through to 2050: A pre-COVID-19 trajectory (No COVID-19), the current path influenced by the pandemic (Current Path), and a transformative SDG-focused approach prioritizing key policy strategies to accelerate outcomes (SDG Push). The pandemic led to a rise in extreme poverty and hunger, with recovery projected to be slow. The SDG Push scenario effectively addresses this, surpassing the Current Pathand achieving significant global improvements in poverty, malnutrition, and human development by 2050 even relative to the No COVID-19 path. The findings emphasize the need for integrated, transformative actions to propel sustainable development.

Full Citation: Verhagen, W., Meziere, M. E., Bohl, D. K., Howe, B., & Moyer, J. (2010). Guinea-Bissau: Exploring Alternative Futures of Development - Report 2. Pardee Center for International Futures. https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/Guinea-Bissau/en

UNDP Guinea Bissau & Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Bissau, Guinea-Bissau and Denver, USA. Access translations:

French Version
Portuguese Version

Verhagen, W., Pereira, C. C., Bohl, D. K., Meziere, M. E., Irfan, M. T., Moyer J. M. (2022). "Guinea-Bissau: Exploring Alternative Futures of Development. Report 1: Economic and human development trends to 2040."

UNDP Guinea Bissau & Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Bissau, Guinea-Bissau and Denver, USA.

Access translations:

• French version
• Portuguese version

Abidoye, B., Felix, J., Kapto, S. & Patterson, L. (2021). Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). New York, NY and Denver CO: United Nations Development Programme and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

The Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures partnered with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to provide the futures modeling that underpins Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Using the International Futures (IFs) model, Pardee researchers analyzed multiple COVID-19 recovery scenarios to help policymakers understand the pandemic's long-term implications for sustainable development. The analysis showed that while COVID-19 threatened to widen global inequalities, strategic investments in governance, social protection, green development, and digitalization could help many countries recover and even exceed pre-pandemic development trajectories—demonstrating how long-range, evidence-based modeling can inform more resilient policy decisions.

Moyer, Jonathan D., Collin J. Meisel, Austin S. Matthews, David K. Bohl, and Mathew J. Burrows. 2021.

"China-US Competition: Measuring Global Influence." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Report for Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center.

Beyond measuring US and Chinese influence capacity, the FBIC Index can be used to analyze changing influence capacity dynamics for more than 200 countries and between more than 20,000 country pairs from 1960 through 2020. Data include a summary measure of influence capacity as well as its primary components—bandwidth and dependence—and their political, economic, and security subcomponents.

Hughes, Barry B., Taylor Hanna, Kaylin McNeil, David K. Bohl, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2021.

"Pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals in a World Reshaped by COVID-19." Denver, CO and New York, NY: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and United Nations Development Programme.

Verhagen, W., Bohl, D.K., Cilliers, J., Hughes, B.B., Kwasi, S., McNeil, K., Oosthuizen, M., Picci, L., Yutang Xiong, M., and Moyer, J.D. (2021). "Analysing long-term socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 across diverse African contexts."

Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa.

Moyer, Jonathan D., Abigail Kabandula, David K. Bohl, Vivian Yang, Kaylin McNeil, Yutang Xiong, Ibrahim Mayaki, Martin Bwalya, George Murumba, and Bernice Mclean. 2021.

"COVID-19: The Future of African Development Systems." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO. Report with African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD).

Sarah Dickerson, David Bohl, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Alex Porter, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2019.

"Central America and the Carribean Regional Education Report." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Sarah Dickerson, David Bohl, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Alex Porter, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Hanna, Taylor, David K. Bohl, Mickey Rafa, and Jonathan D. Moyer. 2021.

"Assessing the Impact of Conflict on Development in North-East Nigeria." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO. Report for United Nations Development Programme.