Cilliers, Jake. (2025, February 25). The toll of USAID cuts on Africa. ISS Africa Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-toll-of-USAID-cuts-on-Africa?utm_source=Institute+for+security+studies&utm_campaign=375b5af3bc-Africa_Tomorrow_Blog&utm_

Hedden, S. (2015). "Gridlocked: A long-term look at South Africa's electricity sector." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver.

Electricity generation in South Africa is changing, but whether the electricity grid will be able to adapt to these changes is uncertain. This paper presents an alternative frame for the current electricity challenges by focusing on the electricity grid. Using the International Futures forecasting model, the African Futures Project has built three scenarios to 2050 to inform policymakers of the long-term implications of grid decisions. With coordinated planning, improved operational strategies and coherent policies, renewable energy can contribute significantly to the energy mix by 2050, help increase economic growth and benefit all South Africans. These interventions, however, will only be successful if there is a clear plan for the structure of the electricity sector.

Cilliers, J. and Camp, H. (2013). “Highway or Byway? The National Development Plan 2030.”

African Futures Paper No. 6. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to explore the feasibility of the central economic growth target in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. The authors conclude that the growth target (5.4% average annual growth in GDP) and an associated income per capita target are both very ambitious and will require a huge effort, clear leadership, and painful adjustments if they are to be achieved. They point out that other important targets in the Plan, such as in education and infrastructure, are achievable with lower rates of economic growth.

Hedden, S., Moyer, J.D., and Rettig, J. (2013). “Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?”

African Futures Paper No. 9. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

South Africa is poised to move forward with shale gas development through hydraulic fracturing or "fracking," exploring what experts believe to be the eighth largest shale gas reserve in the world. For a country that currently is almost wholly dependent on coal production, shale gas development could be a game-changer. Yet, the possible environmental impacts could also be devastating. The International Futures model is used to explore both the possibilities and some of the risks of fracking for South Africa.

Narayan, K., and Donnenfeld, Z. (2016). "Envisioning a Healthy Future: Africa's Shifting Burden of Disease." African Futures Paper No. 18. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel Schoo

Africa has the highest prevalence of communicable diseases in the world. In 2015, more than three times as many people died from AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than ten times as many people died from malaria as in the rest of the world combined. Non-communicable diseases are also increasing on the continent. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore the effects on human development of Africa’s achieving targets 3.3 and 3.4 of the Sustainable Development Goals: respectively, eradication of selected communicable diseases, and a reduction in premature deaths from non-communicable diseases by one-third by 2030.

Moyer, J.D. and Firnhaber, E. (2012). “Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa.”

African Futures Brief No. 4. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Despite possessing large tracts of rich, uncultivated land, Africa is a net importer of food and suffers from high levels of undernutrition. Many have argued that a "Green Revolution," defined by increasing crop yields and land under cultivation, could bring about a more sustainable future for the continent. In this policy brief we explore not only the scope and impacts of policy choices that would increase yields and land under cultivation in Africa, but also interventions to facilitate the consumption of the increased food supplies by those in need within Africa.

Cilliers, J., Hughes, B.B. and Moyer, J.D. (2011). "African Futures 2050: The Next Forty Years."

Monograph 175. Institute for Security Studies and Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This monograph provides an extensive analysis of the projected course of African development to 2050. Combining the deep and wide knowledge of Africa within the Institute for Security Studies with extensive use of the Pardee Center's International Futures modeling system, the discussion looks across most major development-related issue areas - demographics, economics, sociopolitical change, the environment, and human development itself, including health and education - over an extended forecast period. While not proposing specific policy initiatives, the analysis provides a context within which those who pursue sustainable human development can consider policy options.

Institute for Security Studies (ISS). 2018. Structural pressures and political instability: Trajectories for sub-Saharan Africa.

A new report published by the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) explores a series of ambitious but realistic interventions to improve economic growth and development in Nigeria.

Authors Julia Schunemann of ISS and Alex Porter, Research Associate at the Pardee Center, find that Nigeria’s basic physical infrastructure deficit severely undermines the country’s prospects for economic growth and development. Meanwhile, rapid population growth in Nigeria will compound the challenge of inadequate basic infrastructure. Building the Future: Infrastructure in Nigeria until 2040 uses IFs to take an integrated, longterm approach to accelerating Nigeria's infrastructure development. The report was launched at an event in Abuja on December 6, co-hosted by ISS and the delegation of the European Union to Nigeria.

Porter, A., Bohl, D., Kwasi, S., Donnenfeld, Z., Cilliers, J. (2017, September). "Can natural gas improve Mozambique’s development?" Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs.

A report from the African Futures Project, a collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies, uses IFs to assess Mozambique’s long-term development prospects. The discovery that Mozambique holds one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world has generated great optimism about the country’s future. But the recent sovereign debt crisis has cast serious doubt on the ability of the country to effectively manage the associated profits and better promote human development. The report concludes that without a concerted effort to ensure transparent management of gas revenues and channel that windfall into investment in basic human development, the country will continue to face barriers to inclusive growth. Without basic service delivery and better budget management, gas reserves won’t help Mozambique’s poorest.