Turner, S., Neill, C., Hughes, B.B., Narayan, K. (2024, June 6). Guide to scenario analysis in International Futures (IFs). Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures.

The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?).

This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.

Hughes BB, Narayan K (2021) Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity. PLoS ONE 16(2): e0246797. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246797

Sarah Dickerson, David Bohl, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Alex Porter, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2019.

"Central America and the Carribean Regional Education Report." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Sarah Dickerson, David Bohl, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Alex Porter, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2019.

"The Future of Guatemalan Education." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2019.

"The Future of Honduran Education." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Matthews, Austin S., Mathew J. Burrows, David K. Bohl, Taylor L. Hanna, Brendan R. Mapes, Collin J. Meisel, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan, and Kumail Wasif. 2019.

“Forecasting Changing American Trade Scenarios and Relational Power Shifts Across Regions.” International Studies Association ISSS-IS Conference.

Authors: Austin S. Matthews, Mathew J. Burrows, David K. Bohl, Taylor L. Hanna, Brendan R. Mapes, Collin J. Meisel, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan, and Kumail Wasif

Full Citation: Rothman, D. S., Hughes, B. B., & Narayan, K. (2017). IFs agriculture model documentation. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver.

Dale S. Rothman, Hughes, Barry B., and Kanishka Narayan. 2017. "IFs Agriculture Model Documentation." Working paper 2017.07.04. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

Bohl, David K., Taylor L. Hanna, Brendan R. Mapes, Jonathan D. Moyer, Kanishka Narayan, and Kumail Wasif. 2017.

"Understanding and Forecasting Geopolitical Risks and Benefits." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO. Report for Zurich Insurance Group and Atlantic Council.

Dale S. Rothman, Barry B. Hughes, and Kanishka Narayan

The IFs agricultural model tracks the supply and demand, including imports, exports, and prices, of three agricultural commodities: crops, meat, and fish. Crops, meat and fish have direct food, animal feed, industrial and food manufacturing uses. The agricultural model is also where land use dynamics and water use are tracked in IFs, as these are key resources for the agricultural sector.

The structure of the agriculture model is very much like that of the economic model. It combines a growth process with a partial economic equilibrium process using stocks and prices to seek a balance between the demand and supply sides. As in the economic model, no effort is made in the standard adjustment mechanism to obtain a precise equilibrium in any time step. Instead stocks serve as a temporary buffer and the model chases equilibrium over time.

The most important linkages between the agriculture model and other models within IFs are with the economic model. The economic model provides forecasts of average income levels, labor supply, total consumer spending, and agricultural investment, all of which are used in the agriculture model. In turn, the agriculture model provides forecasts on agricultural production, imports, exports, and demand for investment, which override the sectoral computations in the economic model. The agricultural model also has important links to the population and health models, using population forecasts and providing forecasts of calorie availability.