Bennett, N., Bloom, D., de la Vega, R., Hanna, T., Lavopa, A., & Prettner, K. (2026, March 23). The future of jobs in an era of demographic and technological transformation. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. 

United Nations Industrial Development Organization has released a new policy brief, The Future of Jobs in an Era of Demographic and Technological Transformation, co-authored by Pardee’s Taylor Hanna. The brief serves as a follow-up to UNIDO’s latest Industrial Development Report, which was supported by Hanna and Pardee Research Associate Bido Ibrahim. Drawing on projections from the International Futures model, the analysis explores how demographic change and automation will reshape global employment by 2050. It highlights stark regional differences, with developing economies facing growing job creation pressures and advanced economies confronting higher risks of automation-driven displacement. Under a moderate automation scenario, global demand for new jobs could grow to one billion—underscoring the need for forward-looking, context-specific policy responses.

Solórzano, J., Hughes, B., Irfan, M., Xiong, Y., Kwasi, S., Ibrahim, A., Makhamatova, S., Hanna, T., Moyer, J. (2024, December 20). Protocol for making forecasts exogenous in the International Futures model. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xpro.2024.103414

Understanding future dynamics and trends in human and natural development is foundational for creating appropriate policy strategies to address planetary and development challenges. Here, we present a protocol for adding exogenous series for key variables, such as the shared socioeconomic pathways, to the database of the International Futures (IFs) integrated model. We describe steps for installing IFs and the SQLiteStudio software, understanding the IFs database, importing series, running the model, and extracting results.
For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Moyer.

Hanna, T., Kruczkiewicz, A., Owen, M. (2024, December 10). Land degradation and human development in Yemen. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/yemen/publications/land-degradation-and-human-development-yemen

This study, “Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen,” was commissioned by UNDP in 2024 as part of a collaboration with the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver and climate researchers. Yemen is frequently said to be experiencing one of the worst development and humanitarian crises in the world after more
than ten years of ongoing conflict. At the same time, it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and for decades has faced a worsening water crisis as well as land degradation (including deterioration of historical terracing systems), desertification and soil erosion. This report seeks to better understand how the above-mentioned phenomena could affect economic and human development in Yemen on immediate, medium and long-term timescales.

The report explores the links between climate change, land degradation and desertification, conflict, and human development outcomes in Yemen. This report begins with a review of the literature of the drivers, context, and intervening factors around land degradation and desertification in Yemen so far. This is followed by an analysis of historical subregional data on land degradation and climatic variables within
the country. Turning toward the socioeconomic effects, the report first reviews literature on the pathways through which desertification can alter agricultural production and otherwise affect economic and human development. Finally, the report uses integrated modelling techniques and scenario analysis using the  International Futures (IFs) model to explore the effect of degradation and restoration pathways on future development in Yemen. The IFs model has previously been applied to assess the effect of ongoing conflict in Yemen on human development and to examine possible recovery pathways in the Impact of War trilogy of reports and the Impact of Climate Change on Human Development produced by UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures.

Yemen voluntary national review. (2024, July). Contributions from Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, and Jonathan D. Moyer. Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation. https://hlpf.un.org/countries/yemen/voluntary-national-reviews-2024

Yemen has been experiencing an exceptional phase and highly complex conditions for ten years due to a coup by the Houthi terrorist militia against the state. One of the consequences of this war has been the collapse of the state and the redirection of development and growth trajectories into the negative for many years, with Yemen falling in all international economic, humanitarian, and social indicators. However, despite this difficult reality, the resilience and cohesion of Yemenis, along with the sincere support from brothers and friends, have been fundamental in normalizing the situation, restoring stability, and resuming the building of state institutions. Despite all the challenges, including the ongoing war and difficult economic conditions, there are efforts being made to restore building and development, with national consensus on strengthening institutional work and developing tools to interact with the world and integrate into the visions of development and prosperity of the region and the world, and to address the consequences of the war. The economic file represents a top priority in the government's agenda and its general program, including achieving sustainable development goals and enhancing economic resilience. Five main priorities have been set for the government's work in the coming phase: (a) restoring the state and achieving sustainable peace, (b) combating corruption and enhancing transparency and accountability, (c) achieving financial and administrative reform, (d) developing economic resources, and (e) maximizing the benefits from external aid and grants and directing them according to the needs and priorities of the government. Through these five priorities, we will strive to achieve tangible and clear progress towards the sustainable development goals, and we will harness all possible energies for this purpose.

Hanna, T., Hughes, B.B., Irfan, M.T., Bohl, D.K., Solórzano et al. (2024, April 16). Sustainable Development Goal Attainment in the Wake of COVID-19: Simulating an Ambitious Policy Push. Sustainability. 3309. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083309

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the world was not on course to meet key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Some significant degree of additional effort was needed before the pandemic, and the challenge is now greater. Analyzing the prospects for meeting these goals requires attention to the combined effects of the pandemic and such additional impetus. This article assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on progress toward the SDGs and explores strategies to recover and accelerate development. Utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and recognizing the near impossibility of meeting the goals by 2030, three scenarios are examined through to 2050: A pre-COVID-19 trajectory (No COVID-19), the current path influenced by the pandemic (Current Path), and a transformative SDG-focused approach prioritizing key policy strategies to accelerate outcomes (SDG Push). The pandemic led to a rise in extreme poverty and hunger, with recovery projected to be slow. The SDG Push scenario effectively addresses this, surpassing the Current Pathand achieving significant global improvements in poverty, malnutrition, and human development by 2050 even relative to the No COVID-19 path. The findings emphasize the need for integrated, transformative actions to propel sustainable development.

Global Outlook 2024: Prospects for children - Cooperation in a fragmented world. (2024, January). UNICEF Innocenti - Global Office of Research and Foresight.

Hanna, T., Kelley, C., Kruczkiewicz, A., & Moyer, J. (2023, December). The Impact of Climate Change on Human Development in Yemen. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-11/impact_of_climate_change_on_human_development_in_yemen.pdf

This report presents the findings of a study on projections of climate change in Yemen and its effect on human development. The United Nations Development Programme commissioned the Pardee Center for International Futures to complete this study.

Hanna, T., Meisel, C., Moyer, J., Azcona, G., Bhatt, A., Duerto Valero, S., & Meagher, A. (2023). Forecasting Time Spent In Unpaid Care and Domestic Work. UN Women.

In collaboration with UN Women, this report examines the gender gap in unpaid care and domestic work. Using the Pardee Institute's IFs modeling platform, this report estimates and forecasts time spent on unpaid care and domestic work by both men and women.

Moyer, J. D., Pirzadeh, A., Irfan, M., Solórzano, J. R., Stone, B. A., Xiong, Y., Hanna, T., & Hughes, B. B. (2023, October 2). How many people will live in poverty because of climate change? A macro-level projection analysis to 2070. Climatic Change 176(13). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03611-3.

Fossil fuel-based economic development both causes climate change and contributes to poverty alleviation, creating tensions across societal efforts to maintain growth, limit climate damage, and improve human development. While many studies explore key aspects of this dilemma, few direct attention to the pathways from climate change through socioeconomic development to the future of poverty. We build on projections of global temperature change (representative concentration pathways) and country-specific economic development (economic growth and income distribution across the shared socioeconomic pathways) to model how climate change may affect future poverty with the International Futures (IFs) model, projecting poverty across income thresholds for 175 countries through 2070. Central tendency scenarios with climate effects compared with scenarios that do not model climate change show that climate change-attributable extreme poverty will grow to 25 million people by 2030 (range: 18 to 30), 40 million by 2050 (range: 9 to 78), and 32 million by 2070 (range: 4 to 130) though overall levels of global poverty decline. If climatic tipping points are passed, the climate-attributable extreme poverty grows to 57 million people by 2030 (range: 40–72), 78 million by 2050 (range: 18–193), and 56 million by 2070 (range: 7–306). To mitigate baseline effects of climate change on extreme poverty, an improvement of global income inequality of 10% is required (range: 5–15%).

Full Citation: Sahadevan, D., Hanna, T., Moz-Christofoletti, M. A., Orlic, E., Okiya, S., Abidoye, B., & Moyer, J. D. (2023). UNDP. https://data.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke476/files/2023-11/20230606_Universal-Electrification-Research-Report.pdf

Pushing for universal electricity access through Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) interventions can have powerful multi-faceted effects across economic and human development. Despite its benefits, expanding electricity access comes with significant costs that may require trade-offs in fiscal choices. By using futures modelling that captures both synergies and trade-offs of pursuing particular SDG targets, UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures (University of Denver) assessed the current state of electricity access and modelled different pathways to achieving significant milestones in electricity access, including the UN-Energy Pledge and the UNDP commitments. Read the official report and others here.

Modelling Universal Access
Development Impacts of Electrification