Meisel, C., Lin, B., Greitens, S.C., & Shugart, T. (2024, July 24). In brief: China’s third plenum. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/ 07/in-brief-chinas-third-plenum

Last week, the Chinese Communist Party held its third plenum, a closed door meeting of high-level party officials that has historically indicated the country’s policy direction on major issues, such as the economy. This was the first third plenum held since 2018 and was hotly anticipated, especially considering China’s faltering economic growth. We asked four experts to tell us more about the outcomes of the meeting and what this might indicate about China’s strategy in the coming months and years.

Meisel, C., Studeman, M., Sun, Y., & Daniels, R. (2024, May 8). In brief: U.S-Chinese relationship. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/05/in-brief-the-u-s-chinese-relationship/

Meisel, C. (2023, December 7). Rewind and Reconnoiter: China's Slowing Economy with Collin Meisel. War on the Rocks.

In 2019, Collin Meisel and Jonathan D. Moyer wrote “Preparing for China’s Rapid Rise and Decline” for War on the Rocks, looking at how “China’s rapid transition toward a downward trajectory will pose a unique set of national security challenges for the United States that could prove even more difficult than those posed by China’s rise.” In light of China’s economic slowdown, we asked Collin to look back on the piece and its recommendations. Read more by clicking on the link.

Meisel, C., Sun, Y., Blanchette, J., & Scissors, D. (2023, December 6). In Brief: China's Struggling Economy - War on the Rocks. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2023/12/in-brief-chinas-struggling-economy/

Meisel, C. (2023, December 1). Can China’s Baby Bust Be Reversed? Don’t Count On It. Time Magazine. https://time.com/6341316/china-baby-bust-demographics/

In late October, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the National Women’s Congress that “We should actively foster a new type of marriage and childbearing culture.” Such a statement is rich coming from a man, especially one who leads a party that for decades actively and sometimes brutally enforced family planning policies. It is also delusional: In all probability, China’s baby bust cannot be reversed, at least not anytime soon.

Meisel, C., & McKee, K. (2023, August 2). The trouble with labeling China an 'enemy'. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4131578-the-trouble-with-labeling-china-an-enemy/

“I think China’s an enemy. I think we have to take them incredibly seriously,” Nikki Haley recently said. Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and current GOP presidential candidate, had other incendiary remarks to share on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” accusing China of “killing Americans,” a reference to Beijing’s failure to curb shipment of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico, which are then smuggled into the U.S.

By: Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel & Austin S. Matthews (2023) Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image, Journal of Contemporary China, 32:140, 191-206, DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2022.2071879

In this article published in the Journal of Contemporary China, Assistant Professor and Pardee Center Director Dr. Jonathan Moyer, Pardee Center senior research associate Collin Meisel, and former Pardee Center research scientist Dr. Austin Matthews find that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition.

Casetti, Emilio. 2003. “Power Shifts and Economic Development: When Will China Overtake the USA?" Journal of Peace Research 40 (6): 661−675.