In “Global Power Shifts,” a new theme on the Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures platform, Pardee Director of Analysis Collin Meisel and ISS’s Jakkie Cilliers use three Pardee indices in International Futures (IFs) to compare national power and influence through 2050 across four global scenarios. The U.S. and China remain the leading powers in every scenario, with China converging with or overtaking the U.S. depending on the measure. India and a unified European Union could shape outcomes in specific circumstances, producing what the authors call a “mini-polar” order. A combined African Union would see the largest relative gains, driven by population growth, though its share of global power would reach only about 5% to 8% by 2050.

Collin Meisel and Jakkie Cilliers (2026) Global Power Shifts. Published online at futures.issafrica.org. Retrieved from https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/17-global-power-shifts/ [Online Resource] Updated 8 September 2026.

By: Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel & Austin S. Matthews (2023) Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image, Journal of Contemporary China, 32:140, 191-206, DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2022.2071879

In this article published in the Journal of Contemporary China, Assistant Professor and Pardee Center Director Dr. Jonathan Moyer, Pardee Center senior research associate Collin Meisel, and former Pardee Center research scientist Dr. Austin Matthews find that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition.