Full Citation: Verhagen, W. (2022) "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Reduction of Child Stunting Over the Next Two Decades." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for USAID.

Full Citation: Verhagen, W. (2022) "Unpacking the Impacts of COVID-19 on Long-Term Food Security." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for USAID.

Unpacking the impacts of COVID-19 on long-term food security. (2022, April). Verhagen, W. USAID.

Rafa, Mickey and Kabandula, Abigail and Bohl, David and Yang, Vivian and Kwasi, Stellah and Hanna, Taylor and Moyer, Jonathan D., Advancing Development in Uganda: Evaluating Policy Choices and Their Long-Term Impact (March 25, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4066838

The policy, programming, and donor communities in Uganda face a range of competing priorities that will shape future patterns of development. Various factors will determine which policies should be prioritized, including long-term patterns of human, social and environmental development. This report is motivated by the desire to better understand the future of development in Uganda to support these decision-makers as they choose among various policy options in a future characterized by uncertainty.

Verhagen, W. et al., 2021. The Future of Food Security in the Wake of a Global Pandemic. Report. Research Technical Assistance Center: Washington, DC.

Moyer, J.D. and Firnhaber, E. (2012). “Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa.”

African Futures Brief No. 4. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Despite possessing large tracts of rich, uncultivated land, Africa is a net importer of food and suffers from high levels of undernutrition. Many have argued that a "Green Revolution," defined by increasing crop yields and land under cultivation, could bring about a more sustainable future for the continent. In this policy brief we explore not only the scope and impacts of policy choices that would increase yields and land under cultivation in Africa, but also interventions to facilitate the consumption of the increased food supplies by those in need within Africa.

Full Citation: Rothman, D. S., Hughes, B. B., & Narayan, K. (2017). IFs agriculture model documentation. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver.

Dale S. Rothman, Hughes, Barry B., and Kanishka Narayan. 2017. "IFs Agriculture Model Documentation." Working paper 2017.07.04. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

Dale S. Rothman, Barry B. Hughes, and Kanishka Narayan

The IFs agricultural model tracks the supply and demand, including imports, exports, and prices, of three agricultural commodities: crops, meat, and fish. Crops, meat and fish have direct food, animal feed, industrial and food manufacturing uses. The agricultural model is also where land use dynamics and water use are tracked in IFs, as these are key resources for the agricultural sector.

The structure of the agriculture model is very much like that of the economic model. It combines a growth process with a partial economic equilibrium process using stocks and prices to seek a balance between the demand and supply sides. As in the economic model, no effort is made in the standard adjustment mechanism to obtain a precise equilibrium in any time step. Instead stocks serve as a temporary buffer and the model chases equilibrium over time.

The most important linkages between the agriculture model and other models within IFs are with the economic model. The economic model provides forecasts of average income levels, labor supply, total consumer spending, and agricultural investment, all of which are used in the agriculture model. In turn, the agriculture model provides forecasts on agricultural production, imports, exports, and demand for investment, which override the sectoral computations in the economic model. The agricultural model also has important links to the population and health models, using population forecasts and providing forecasts of calorie availability.

Hedden, Steve, Barry B. Hughes, Dale S. Rothman, Alanna J. Markle, Joel Maweni, and Ibrahim A. Mayaki. 2016.

"Ending Hunger in Africa: The Elimination of Hunger and Food Insecurity on the African Continent by 2025: Conditions for Success." Invited Research Paper for The New Partnership for African Development Planning and Coordinating Agency. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.