Citation: Meisel, C. (2026, August 26). Toward a “mini-polar” future: Where do Africa and Europe stand? Federation of German Industries. https://bdi.eu/en/articles/internationales/toward-a-mini-polar-future-where-do-africa-and-europe-stand

Abstract:

We published this article as part of The Future of African-European Relations project, a collaboration among BDI, the Institute for Security Studies, the Hanns Seidel Foundation, and the Megatrends Afrika consortium. In “ Toward a ‘mini-polar’ future: where do Africa and Europe stand?” Collin uses International Futures (IFs) forecasts to examine how global power may shift by 2050, with the United States and China remaining the two largest poles while the EU and India retain enough weight to influence outcomes in key regions and issue areas.

The article argues that Africa’s demographic and economic rise will give many African states greater room to shape partnerships, even if no individual African country or the African Union is likely to become a full “mini-pole” by 2050. For Europe and Africa, the strategic question centers on how today’s policy choices on trade, migration, governance, security, and partnership will define whether a more diffuse global order leads to cooperation or rivalry.

Collin Meisel. (2026, June 11). What America's demographic future means for Africa and Europe. Megatrends Afrika Spotlight No. 71. https://www.megatrends-afrika.de/en/publication/mta-spotlight-71-us-demographic-decline-could-reshape-the-global-balance-of-power

Demographic shifts in the United States could reshape its relationships with Africa and Europe over the coming decades. Using the International Futures (IFs) model developed by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, the piece explores how lower immigration could slow U.S. population growth, weaken the labor force, and reduce long-term economic and geopolitical influence. It also considers how these demographic changes could affect the balance of global power and opportunities for cooperation between regions. By modeling alternative long-term scenarios rather than making fixed predictions, IFs help policymakers better understand the trade-offs and potential consequences of today's policy decisions.

Keisuke Minai. (2026, April 12). Qatar's mediation diplomacy strength: An analysis of reactions to Israel's September 2025 attack. The SAIS Review of International Affairs. https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/qatars-mediation-diplomacy-strength-an-analysis-of-reactions-to-israels-september-2025-attack/

Keisuke Minai used the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index and Global Power Index (GPI) from the Pardee's Institute's Diplometrics research program to explore Qatar's use of mediation diplomacy following an air strike in its capital in September 2025. According to Professor Minai, their advanced statistical analysis "confirms that Qatar’s mediation activities are positively associated with its international influence in the long term, while its national power plays a role in the short term."

Moyer, Jonathan D., & Meisel, Collin J. (2026, March 16). “Climate change modelling and international relations: in pursuit of an integrated, long-term research agenda” in Handbook on the Geopolitics of Sustainability. (pgs. 368-378). Edward Elgar Publishing.

In this book chapter, Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer and Director of Analysis Collin Meisel, identify a crucial disciplinary gap between international relations theory and climate change modelling. To help bridge this divide, Moyer and Meisel call for an integrated research agenda that aligns international relations with the long-term, large-scale quantitative forecasting models utilized by climate researchers. By incorporating a “systems map” approach, researchers can establish a baseline forecast of the international system to test the complex, interacting geopolitical impacts of direct climate effects, mitigation, and adaptation.

Explore the full chapter here.

How do leaders shape, and how are they shaped, by international relations? What drives a leader to travel from one country to another or to any other place in the world? What can we learn about travel, trade, conflict, diplomacy, democracy, and other interconnected systems by researching the travel patterns of country and organization leaders? These central questions drive the Pardee Institute’s decade-long COLT (Country and Organization Leader Travel) project, which the U.S. Government sponsors.  

The Pardee Institute explored these and related research questions for an audience of faculty, students, and staff from the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs (the Korbel School) during its first-ever Lunch and Learn seminar. 

Following an introduction of the COLT dataset and Lunch and Learn series by Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer, Pardee Institute COLT Program Manager Kylie McKee, and Director of Analysis Collin Meisel took turns presenting on different facets of the COLT project.  

The COLT project captures data on Heads of Government and State (HOGS) travel from 1990 through the present day for 212 countries and territories. This scale of data collection requires large-scale infrastructure and staff, from coders to vetters to team leads (all positions held by students), until ultimately the data reaches McKee and Meisel.  

This dataset tracks over 43 variables and 70 biographical variables for each leader, creating an extensive dataset that requires countless hours to track and ensure accuracy, McKee described. McKee went on to detail her team’s research protocol: monthly updates to the data, as well as annual public reports, made possible by weekly tracking of HOGS travel, reviews of data for errors and/or gaps, and extensive final reviews. This work is divided into four groups of RAs who research HOGS from specific regions of the world. 

In Meisel’s words, the COLT dataset is not trying to prove cause and effect; it is trying to see “what moves together.” Meisel, McKee, and their team of student researchers have found the frequency and destination of world leader visits correlate strongly with material interests (such as trade, arms deals, and foreign aid), institutional co-membership (like NATO or the EU), and patterns of conflict. This research matters because diplomatic travel provides a high-frequency, actionable indicator of shifting geopolitical affinities and power dynamics. 

Another question that the COLT project is attempting to tackle is the puzzle of leader travel. With all the modern advances in technology —from phone calls to video conferencing —along with the time and potential dangers involved in traveling, what are the benefits of leaders traveling abroad to meet with other leaders in person? The literature suggests that travel plays a significant role in shaping leader opinions, as seen in trade and relationships between HOGS, Meisel explained. However, most of this literature is focused on one country or a region of the world. The COLT project addresses a major missing piece of the puzzle – its scope is global, making it truly unique and a flagship project for this sort of data collection. 

Because the data is so exhaustive, it can be challenging to know for sure how much of it is captured by the researchers—is it simply the tip of the iceberg, with much concealed beneath the surface, or is most of it visible to these teams? To address these demands, McKee answered that the teams on Pardee’s COLT project are always innovating their methods and processes so that the data can be better used as a resource and source of lessons for future data gathering. For example, McKee shared that Pardee will soon use AI to streamline its data by gathering qualitative information in a systematic format for analysis. 

The event ended with a question-and-answer portion, filled with questions ranging from the use of the data set as a diagnostic tool to which regions have the most tracked travel to if the project had any student position openings. Other questions addressed the uses of AI, how the COLT data is utilized, and where it is sourced.  

To learn more about the COLT Project, access the COLT data, or read the COLT analysis published in International Studies Quarterly, click here.  

This inaugural Lunch and Learn event is part of a new series of Pardee-hosted lunchtime seminars designed to inform the broader Korbel School community about the research approach and applications of the Pardee Institute's work. 

Meisel, C. (2025, August 21). Right-sizing Africa’s “China challenge”. ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/Right-sizing-Africas-China-challenge

Burrows, M., Meisel, C., & Chalikyan, N. (2025). Russia Futures. The Stimson Center.

For decades, Western experts have viewed Russia as a declining power citing a lack of population growth, technology innovation, and a falling GDP for its decline. While it is unlikely to return to its former status, Russia is gaining higher favorability among China, India, and various states across the Global South, establishing alternative multilateral institutions and leaving the West behind. Increased trade with China has nearly met former economic ties with Europe, illustrating a shift in priorities for Putin. The Russian people—trending older—however, would like to see strengthened ties with the United States or other Global South countries. Failure to adjust to the demands of an aging population, while prioritizing commodities and the War in Ukraine could constrain Russian power domestically and globally. Significant investment in the Global South and Central Asia, climate change, and a Northern Sea Route in the Arctic, could shift the narrative for Russia moving forward, revitalizing its power and influence. This report examines three potential scenarios for Russia over the next ten years: a “Sovietized” Russia, set on boosting defense spending; a Great Patriotic War against the West, with Russia increasing its reliance on China; and a Reborn Russia, taking advantage of its geographical ties and influence on the Global South.