Meisel, C., Sun, Y., Blanchette, J., & Scissors, D. (2023, December 6). In Brief: China's Struggling Economy - War on the Rocks. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2023/12/in-brief-chinas-struggling-economy/

Meisel, C. (2023, December 1). Can China’s Baby Bust Be Reversed? Don’t Count On It. Time Magazine. https://time.com/6341316/china-baby-bust-demographics/

In late October, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the National Women’s Congress that “We should actively foster a new type of marriage and childbearing culture.” Such a statement is rich coming from a man, especially one who leads a party that for decades actively and sometimes brutally enforced family planning policies. It is also delusional: In all probability, China’s baby bust cannot be reversed, at least not anytime soon.

Moyer, J. D., Matthews, A. S., Evans, J., McPhee, J., & Kettlun, W. (2023, November 27). Do safety expectations affect the location strategies of large service delivery INGOs? International Interactions, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2023.2279616

Large service-delivery international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) help shape the lives of millions worldwide, contributing significantly to the betterment of global health, development, education, and more. However, these organizations operate on limited financial resources and must deliver services on-the-ground, requiring them to make calculated decisions about their location strategies for operations. Although these INGOs should aim to maximize their efforts by operating in countries with the greatest need, sometimes they may face challenges from political conditions in these environments. Do safety expectations in countries affect the assistance allocation decisions of large service delivery INGOs? We explore this question using new data on the location and operational-intensity of country-level projects across 90 of the largest service delivery INGOs worldwide between 1990 and 2015. We find that these INGOs do send greater operational resources to countries demonstrating need and that INGOs are not necessarily afraid to operate in countries with safety risks. However, large INGOs do send far fewer service operations to autocracies, suggesting that political factors affect their location strategies as well.

Meisel, C., & Mckee, K. (2023, September 14). Coups are making a comeback. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4201818-coups-are-making-a-comeback/

The recent coup d’état in Gabon marks the latest casualty of the “coup contagion” spreading across the African continent. Given the frenetic pace of the minute-by-minute news cycle of the social media era, it’s easy to lose track of longer-term trends. Sure, it feels like there have been more coups than average lately, but is that just availability and vividness bias talking – humans’ known tendency to pay more attention to more recent, more prominent, and more sensational information than that which is less so?

No, it’s not just your imagination — coups are making a comeback.

Meisel, C., Moyer, J., Burrows, M. J., & Petry, C. (2023, August 6). The Russian invasion of Ukraine is boosting the potential for U.S. influence abroad. Lawfare. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/russian-invasion-ukraine-boosting-potential-us-influence-abroad

In this commentary with Lawfare, hosted by the Brookings Institution, Jonathan Moyer, Caleb Petry, Mat Burrows, and Collin Meisel discuss findings from our recent report with the Stimson Center examining future long-term trends in geopolitical influence across alternative scenarios.

Meisel, C., & Szymanski-Burgos, A. (2023, August 3). Why many Nigeriens want Russia in and the West out. Time Magazine. https://time.com/6301177/niger-african-support-russia/

In Time, Pardee Center Research Associate Adam Szymanski-Burgos and Collin Meisel explain how the U.S. and Europe are poised to fall further and further behind their geopolitical competitors in terms of aid, trade, arms transfers, and diplomatic engagement on the African continent—key sources of international influence. Unless Western leaders change tack, Western publics should prepare for more waving of the white, blue, and red—Russia’s tricolor flag—than of the American red, white, and blue in capitals beyond Niamey, Niger.

Meisel, C., & McKee, K. (2023, August 2). The trouble with labeling China an 'enemy'. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4131578-the-trouble-with-labeling-china-an-enemy/

“I think China’s an enemy. I think we have to take them incredibly seriously,” Nikki Haley recently said. Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and current GOP presidential candidate, had other incendiary remarks to share on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” accusing China of “killing Americans,” a reference to Beijing’s failure to curb shipment of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico, which are then smuggled into the U.S.

Meisel, C. (2023, July 19). The Pentagon is the wrong agency to lead the new US deterrence strategy. Defense One. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2023/07/pentagon-wrong-agency-lead-new-us-deterrence-strategy/388676/

In this commentary in Defense One, Meisel argues that deemphasizing the Defense Department’s role in the U.S. integrated deterrence strategy will increase the chances of the strategy's success by substantially increasing the credibility of U.S. threats.

Full Citation: Meisel, Collin, Jonathan Moyer, and Mathew J. Burrows. 2023. “The US is losing the Global South: How to reverse course.” The Hill.

On its present course, the U.S. is set to be overtaken by China as the world’s leading influencer within the next 25 years.

Chinese influence has already surpassed the U.S. in 61 countries due to its substantial trade, investment and development assistance, according to a study we made of influence between pairs of states from 1960 onward with forecasts through mid-century across economic, political and security dimensions. China’s “inroads” include particularly Africa and Central and Southeast Asia in addition to eroding U.S. advantages virtually everywhere else.

Full Citation: Meisel, Collin J., Caleb L. Petry, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Mathew Burrows. n.d. “Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios.” Stimson.

Putin’s invasion and Xi’s pandemic mismanagement have opened a narrow window of strategic opportunity for the West