How do we model a just energy transition? How might scenario modeling shape policy & planning discourse? These were the key questions explored at the Pardee Institute’s Lunch and Learn series, following the Charged for Change: The case for renewable energy in climate action launch event on February 4th.

Charged for Change emerged from a collaboration between the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Sustainable Energy hub, Octopus Energy, and the Pardee Institute. The report links renewable energy, climate commitments, and human development outcomes.

At the Lunch and Learn event, the presenters focused on different aspects of the research process, including an in-depth look at integrated energy modeling using IFs, contextualizing UNDP’s role in supporting sustainable energy and inclusive development efforts, and reflecting on real-world applications through a case study highlighting Nigeria.

Following opening remarks from Pardee Director Dr. Jonathan Moyer, the report’s lead author, Dr. Chibulu Luo of UNDP, outlined the organization’s role in advancing sustainable energy and inclusive development. A key facet of that work revolves around UNDP’s Climate Promise initiative, which supports developing countries in implementing and strengthening their climate commitments.

Deva Sahadevan, Senior Research Associate at Pardee and co-author of the report, then unpacked the key research questions and assumptions behind Charged for Change. With help from Pardee researchers and fellows, the Pardee Institute conducted an extensive literature review and synthesized more than one hundred fifty data tables to structure three long-term scenarios:

• A Base Case depicting the current trajectory
• A Renewable Acceleration scenario
• A combined Renewable Acceleration + SDGs scenario

Pardee Senior Scientist Dr. Mohammod Irfan, further elaborated on the IFs model and discussed the conceptual underpinnings of modeling energy systems in IFs. Dr. Irfan mentioned how the IFs platform has a unique ability to map energy and economic models in tandem. By exploring multiple indicators at once, IFs forecasts help policymakers and others better understand intertwined dynamics within and across global systems.

Dr. Irfan also touched on the overall model structure, methodology, and enhancements made to address the key research questions in this study. For instance, the IFs model originally analyzed six energy types (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, and an aggregated category of ‘other renewables’) and featured older cost structures for renewables. To address these limitations, IFs expanded its energy model to nine energy types and updated the cost structures.

Following presentations on the study’s research approach and motivations, the event pivoted to a case study in Nigeria to highlight the real world applications of the work. Dr. Geoffrey Omedo, a technical expert who provided comprehensive feedback on the report’s case study, reflected on Nigeria’s dual identity as both an energy access and energy-transition country. Dr. Omedo’s comments underscored the importance of using a balanced approach towards global energy policy, backed by country government support.

Following the panelists’ presentations, the floor opened to an audience Q&A. The audience raised questions spanning the global implications of the Renewable Acceleration + SDGs scenario and the domestic realities on the ground while Nigeria navigates the evolving renewable energy landscape.

Charged for Change was written by Luo, C., Sahadevan, D., Irfan, M.T., Moyer, J.D., Mason, C., & Beynon, E.

To access the full Charged for Change report, click here.

 

United Nations Environment Programme. (2025). Global Environment Outlook 7: A future we choose. United Nations Environment Programme. https://www.unep.org/geo/global-environment-outlook-7

What is the real price tag of delaying climate and nature action by another year—or another decade? 

The United Nations Environment Programme’s Global Environemnt Outlook 7: A future we choose (GEO-7) explores this question. Launched on December 9, 2025, at the seventh UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) in Nairobi, Kenya, GEO-7 is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment to date. Produced by 287 multidisciplinary scientists from 82 countries and reviewed by more than 800 experts and 56 review editors worldwide, the report reflects an effort of remarkable scale, ensuring scientific credibility and global representation.  

The price tag – measured in human and economic costs – of failing to achieve transformative change is steep. GEO-7 finds that continued environmental degradation will drive growing economic losses and could cost tens of millions of lives over the coming decades. Pollution, climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation are already leading to devastating environmental, economic, and human impacts. The outlook emphasizes that these crises are deeply interconnected and that addressing them will require integrated, system-wide solutions across regions and within national governments and societies.  

Crucially, GEO-7 underscores that this future is not inevitable. The report maps out two “Transformation Pathway” scenarios – alternative ways that societies might achieve global environmental goals while supporting economic prosperity. The technology-focused transformation focuses on technological development and efficiency gains. The behavior-focused transformation illuminates how shifts in values and material consumption patterns could drive change. Together, these pathways explore how structural change in energy, food systems, land use, materials and waste, and finance could alter long-term outcomes. 

Taylor Hanna, Associate Director of Development Analysis at the Pardee Institute, and Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Pardee Institute, served as lead authors on Chapters 10 and 11. These chapters map the global implications of the continuation of current trends (Chapter 10) and the pursuit of transformation pathways (Chapter 11). They draw on the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model, used alongside other global environmental and economic models, to explore long-term trajectories for economic, agricultural, and energy indicators.  

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for global partnerships, recognizing that ending poverty is linked to progress in education, energy, and health. The IFs model suggests that under current trends, the world will achieve only modest well-being improvements and miss many SDG targets. Many will still lack basic needs, and disparities between high-income countries and others persist. This highlights an opportunity for countries to align strategies with sustainability and improve well-being. Scenario analysis shows where integrated policies can close gaps and foster inclusive progress. 

By contrast, the Transformation Pathways mapped out in GEO-7 suggest meaningful progress is possible –not only toward global climate goals and stronger economic growth, but also toward improved human well-being worldwide. In the modeling, these pathways lift more than 100 million people out of extreme poverty, 200 million out of hunger, and prevent 9 million premature deaths relative to Current Trends. 

This is the third GEO assessment to which the Pardee Institute and the IFs model have contributed, following earlier involvement in GEO-4 and GEO-6. By contributing to successive GEO assessments, the Pardee Institute continues to provide systems-based long-term analysis as part of a wider international effort to link environmental science with policy decisions. You can access the full GEO-7 report here and view background information, including press releases and the report timeline.  

By: Wara Irfan

Africa faces its own unique development challenges, aspirations, and constraints, said Senior Researcher Alize le Roux of the Institute of Security Studies’ African Futures & Innovation (AFI) program during a conversation hosted by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute on September 9, 2025. The event, moderated by Awa Sanneh, President of Students for Africa at Joseph Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, included a lively discussion and audience Q&A.

Joined by fellow ISS AFI Senior Researcher and economist Blessing Chipanda, le Roux emphasized that the African Union’s Agenda 2063 serves as a “blueprint” for the continent, aligning individual national development plans with a broader vision encompassing all 54 African countries. Agenda 2063 is Africa’s 50-year plan to become prosperous, integrated, and peaceful through seven aspirations and successive Ten-Year Plans.

The ISS is a leading Pan-African think tank dedicated to research and policy engagement on issues of human security. For nearly 15 years, ISS has partnered with the Pardee Institute to use the International Futures (IFs) model. Together, they build knowledge about Africa’s development pathways and create alternative scenarios to help policymakers shape strategies for improved outcomes. ISS and Pardee also collaborate with the AU and its Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) to inform key aspects of Agenda 2063.

Le Roux and Chipanda began by walking the audience through two of the more than 4,000 interactive graphs available on the African Futures website, which employs IFs, to show how long-term forecasting and scenario planning can inform Africa’s development trajectory and support Agenda 2063.

Alize le Roux addresses the audience. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman.

The first graph explored GDP per capita in Africa relative to the rest of the world from 1960 to 2023. While Africa’s GDP per capita has been “growing since 1960 to 2023, [...] it's growing very slowly in relation to that of the rest of the world,” le Roux said, noting that the gap has widened, from roughly $2,700 in 1960 to just under $15,000 in 2023, and is projected to exceed $21,000 by 2043. 

The takeaway, she underscored, is that there is wealth generation on the continent, but it is “very unequally distributed” and “not translating into real poverty reduction”.

The second graph focused on poverty trends.  While the UN Sustainable Development Goal is to reduce poverty to below 3% by 2030, AFI projections show that Africa’s poverty could remain around 26% in 2030 without significant intervention.

“This is really the foundation of our work,” she said. They  AFI considers Africa’s current development trajectory, or the Current Path, and explore how policies and scenarios can accelerate development and reduce poverty more rapidly.

Chipanda then introduced AFI’s scenario analysis approach, which explores how targeted policy interventions might alter these trends. AFI has developed eight sectoral scenarios, covering governance, demographics and health, agriculture, education, manufacturing, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), large Infrastructure and leapfrogging, and financial flows, and then combines them into a “Combined Scenario” that estimates the overall impact on development outcomes. 

Blessing Chipanda gives an overview of the African Futures website. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman. 

“Our analyses are done at the country level. Then we form what is called a Combined Scenario,” Chipanda explained. He highlighted results showing that agriculture, infrastructure, and manufacturing have the greatest impact on GDP per capita across different country income groups. For extreme poverty, the Combined Scenario showed a decline from 385 million people, forecasted by the Current Path, to 168 million by 2043.

Both speakers emphasized the importance of open access to these data and scenarios. Everything they produce is publicly accessible, Chipanda said, encouraging students and researchers to explore interactive graphs on their website and country reports online.

Jonathan D. Moyer leads a structured conversation with le Roux and Chipanda. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman.

Following the presentation, Pardee Institute Director Jonathan D. Moyer led the conversation with le Roux and Chipanda on career pathways and lessons learned in development work. 

Le Roux reflected on her 14 years working in research and development before joining AFI. “Good research does not automatically speak for itself,” she said. One can produce excellent tools and findings, but if they are not effectively communicated to decision-makers, they will not drive change. She also stressed the importance of networks, and as a student, it is important to build relationships as they will matter later in your career.  

Chipanda shared how his background in economics led him to scenario building and modeling, highlighting the collaborative nature of AFI’s work with policymakers across Africa. 

The event concluded with an open Q&A, moderated by Sanneh, with students asking about the challenges of aligning national development plans with continental goals, the role of governance reforms, and the future updates to AFI’s scenarios. 

The session highlighted the power of data-driven foresight in shaping policy and offered students and researchers a practical view of how models like IFs can address some of Africa’s most pressing development challenges. 

 

 

 

By: Sylvia Morna Freitas

The Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, in partnership with Octopus Energy and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), shaped the analytical foundation of the report Charged for Change: The case for renewable energy in climate action, which presents a vision for how renewable energy can simultaneously drive climate action and sustainable development. “Universal electricity and clean cooking access”, a global GDP boost of $48 trillion USD, and the end of extreme poverty for 193 million people are all achievable within a 1.5°C-aligned future, the report finds in its Renewable Acceleration and Sustainable Development Goals (RA+SDG) scenario.  

For the report, the Pardee Institute used its International Futures (IFs) model to quantify the impacts of three future scenarios of renewable climate action, or inaction, to provide an evidence-based foundation for revising and implementing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from the Paris Agreement for over 120 countries. These countries are supported by the UNDP’s Climate Promise: Pledge to Impact Programme, which is a commitment by the UNDP to help countries reach their NDCs by implementing needed programs.  

The Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model was used to compare the Base Case, Renewable Acceleration (RA), and Renewable Acceleration + SDGs (RA+SDG) scenarios. In the report, the Base Case forecasts our trajectory under current policies while the Renewable Acceleration pathway simulates a world with ambitious, integrated renewable energy policy. The RA+SDG scenario simulates a world with similar integrated renewable energy policy and the advancement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  

Under current policy trajectories (the Base Case scenario), global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.6°C by 2060, leaving 400 million people without electricity, 700 million without clean cooking access, and 380 million in extreme poverty. The RA scenario, on the other hand, envisions a world where renewable energy transition is accelerated in line with the decision at the first global stocktake which calls on countries to triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency and phase out fossil fuels. This pathway would put the world on track to limiting global average temperature rise to below 2°C. 

In stark contrast, the RA+SDG scenario envisions universal access to electricity and clean cooking, lifting 193 million people out of extreme poverty and reducing undernutrition for 142 million. It also brings safe water and sanitation to 550 million more people and boosts agricultural productivity by up to 40% in low- and middle-income economies. Such a transition contributes an additional $48 trillion USD to global GDP by 2060, increases per capita income by $6,000, and saves $20.4 trillion through improved energy efficiency and lower renewable energy costs.  

These findings suggest that a just, 1.5°C-aligned energy future with economic gains is possible. They also help bridge the gap between climate ambition and real-world development outcomes, particularly in emerging economies. Countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Türkiye could reach 80–94% renewable energy shares by 2060, lifting millions out of poverty and bringing SDG targets within reach. 

Importantly, these findings challenge the false dichotomy that pits climate action against sustainable development and provides pathways where both aims are mutually beneficial, and within reach. In a world grappling with climate instability and widening inequality, this kind of evidence-based foresight is essential—and urgently needed. 

By: Wara Irfan

Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, in collaboration with UNICEF Innocenti’s Global Office of Research and Foresight and the African Union Development Agency–NEPAD (AUDA‑NEPAD), has released a new foresight report titled Unlocking the Potential of AfCFTA for Africa’s Young Population, exploring how the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could transform outcomes for children and youth across Africa.   

Using the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model, the report compares three scenarios: continuing current trade patterns without AfCFTA (referred to as the Current Path scenario), full AfCFTA implementation (AfCFTA scenario), and AfCFTA plus strategic reinvestment of trade revenues into education, welfare transfers, and research & development (R&D) (AfCFTA For Africa’s Young Population scenario). The report finds that a child-centered approach to the trade agreement is crucial for ensuring equitable and sustainable development in the region. 

Led by Pardee researchers Deva Sahadevan, Taylor Hanna, and Jonathan Moyer, the collaboration began in late 2023, alongside a 2024 contribution to UNICEF’s Global Prospects for Children report. Although the AfCFTA has been established, it has not yet been fully implemented across all African Union member states, so its full potential remains unrealized. Building on Pardee’s previous work on AfCFTA and intended to model the effects of a complete implementation of AfCFTA, the recent report uniquely leverages IFs’ bilateral trade model, covering all 55 African Union members, to capture both tariff and non‑tariff barriers, such as bureaucratic delays, which the model shows can suppress trade as strongly as tariffs themselves.  

The report finds that fully implementing the AfCFTA could boost intra-African trade by 97 percent and increase foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows by 20 percent by 2063, compared to the Current Path scenario. Moreover, the AfCFTA for Africa’s Young Population scenario is projected to generate far greater improvements in GDP growth and poverty reduction across Africa’s regions than the AfCFTA-only scenario.  

 Credit: Pardee Institute via UNICEF Innocenti  

However, it is the third scenario that can significantly amplify the benefits. Under the AfCFTA for Africa’s Young Population scenario, reinvesting cumulative AfCFTA revenue of around US$4 trillion, with US$2.4 trillion allocated to education, US$1.8 trillion to welfare transfers, and US$90 billion to R&D, yields multi-fold benefits by 2063. Africa’s GDP could rise to US$29 trillion (nearly US$3.5 trillion more than the no-AfCFTA scenario), 32.5 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty, child stunting could fall by 3.4 million cases, malnutrition in children by 900,000, and female upper‑secondary graduation could increase by 72 million, narrowing longstanding gender gaps. 

By quantifying how trade gains can be ring‑fenced for child‑centered investments, the Pardee Institute provides governments and partners with key strategic policy actions. It recommends encouraging youth participation in AfCFTA implementation, creating transparent monitoring systems, reinvesting in human capital, establishing systems of accountability, and promoting public-private collaboration.  

The broader goal is to shift the narrative from merely economic integration to social transformation, with a particular emphasis on advancing the well-being of children and young people. Stakeholders can use Pardee’s insights in this report to design capacity‑building initiatives that foster digital, green, and STEM skills among the youth, consistent with emerging business models in the region. Aligned with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and positioning the AfCFTA as a strategic development tool rather than merely a market‑access agreement, the findings underscore that investing in human capital today is essential to forge a healthier, better‑educated, and more prosperous Africa by 2063. 

Unlocking the Potential of AfCFTA for Africa’s Young Population. (2025, May). Unicef.org. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/reports/unlocking-potential-afcfta-africas-young-population

‌UNICEF and the Pardee Institute recently launched a collaborative report on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and its implications for Africa’s young population, led by Pardee researchers, including Deva Sahadevan, Taylor Hanna, and Jonathan Moyer.

Using our International Futures (IFs) model, the report compares three paths: no AfCFTA, AfCFTA as agreed, and AfCFTA plus strategic investments in education, welfare transfers, and research & development, all the way to 2063. The report recommends that countries put children at the center by investing AfCFTA revenue in education, health, nutrition, and green jobs, while building strong social safety nets. They also need to manage risks like job shifts, environmental impacts, and child protection issues.

By: Sylvia Morna Freitas

The Institute for Security Studies African Futures (ISS) has released a new article about how the unprecedented shut-down of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will affect African countries. Using the Pardee Institute’s International Futures forecasting platform (IFs) to model the cut in assistance, the ISS found that 5.7 million more Africans would fall below the US$2.15 extreme poverty income level in the next year should the Trump administration continue with its sweeping aid reduction. 

Author and Founder of the ISS, Jakkie Cilliers, provides detailed context on the reliance of several African countries on U.S. aid and delves into the changing landscape of U.S. foreign aid policy. The U.S. provides 26% of all aid that comes to Africa. The largest component of which is spent in the health sector to combat deadly diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria, and more. Outside of the health sector, U.S. aid to African countries supports agricultural productivity and economic growth, bolsters security, promotes democracy, human rights, and governance, and improves access to quality education and social services.  

In January 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid executive order, which led USAID to suspend operations by award recipients. According to the models, the sudden loss of funding to these development sectors will have a considerable impact on the future of Africa. In this assessment, the ISS African Futures modeling platform used IFs to model a scenario in which aid to Africa is reduced by 20%. By 2030, they found that 19 million more Africans would be considered extremely poor as a result of the aid reduction. ISS tested an alternative scenario where Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was used to replace the loss in aid. They increased FDI to the same volume to see if it could offset the loss but found “no evidence.” For the poorest countries, FDI increased inequality and poverty in the short and medium-term. Further findings include a dramatic decrease in the sub-Saharan economy by $4.6 billion and a rise in mortality and displacement throughout the continent. Cilliers offers alternative solutions that serve both the U.S. desire to reform its aid policy and African leaders as they navigate this geopolitical shift.  

The IFs platform is the only open-source, global model that covers 188 countries and integrates data to forecast a range of interconnected variables across human, social, and natural systems. With a database that goes back to the 1960s in key areas—such as agriculture, economics, governance, health, and more—the IFs is a tool that allows researchers and policymakers to explore the way different policies will shape the future up to the year 2100 and can be used to model the potential consequence of aid loss to several African countries.  

The importance of ISS’s work with Pardee’s International Futures model comes from its ability to forecast how the change in U.S. foreign aid policy will impact Africa. This will allow leaders in African nations and across the world to prepare themselves for the course ahead. It also enables ISS and other researchers to plumb the depths of aid reform and explore how alternative aid policy could better meet the needs of our global future.  

Read the full article here. 

UNICEF and the Pardee Institute have released a report, Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. Authors Jonathan Moyer, director of the Pardee Institute, and Deva Sahadevan, research associate at Pardee, found that increased global cooperation, in tandem with high technological advancements and resource availability, promise the most sustainable future for younger generations worldwide.

These findings are useful, if not surprising. The authors arrived at this conclusion through simulating different future pathways along various points of intersection among those key domains of technology and cooperation. This methodology offers a proactive framework that can help policymakers promotes current and future well-being while mitigating the perverse effects of economic growth.

The authors apply a 2x2 scenario framework featuring scenarios grounded in combinations of high or low levels of technological innovation, resource availability, and international cooperation. These factors determine how future challenges such as climate change, resource distribution, and geopolitical tensions might affect children’s well-being. The scenarios are designed to evaluate long-term trends and their implications for children, with particular emphasis on regions most vulnerable to changes in development.

The resulting scenarios include possible futures of:

• Divided prosperity (our current path: high technology/resource availability; low cooperation);

• Global synergy (a better world: high technology/resource availability; high cooperation);

• Struggling together (not the best/not the worst scenario; low technology/resource availability; high cooperation); and

• Fragmented world (least ideal future: low technology/resource availability; low cooperation).

Using the Pardee Institute’s International Futures platform (IFs), the authors apply quantitative data from various sources, including economic indicators, health statistics, and environmental data, to define these scenarios and to project future well-being outcomes that are measured by economic output, extreme poverty, malnutrition, hunger, carbon emissions.

The global synergy scenario, the most ideal scenario, envisions a future where technological progress aligns with robust international cooperation, unlocking advancements in health, education, and environmental sustainability. Under this scenario, global GDP increases by 10.7%, while per capita GDP rises by 9.8%, accompanied by a dramatic reduction in global poverty—from 8.7% to just 0.4% by 2050. The scenario highlights clean energy infrastructure and lower carbon emissions, demonstrating how unified global efforts can foster a sustainable and prosperous world. However, its feasibility is questioned, given the current concentration of political power and the suspected depletion of Earth's resources.

The other three scenarios present fewer promising paths. The divided prosperity scenario, reflecting current trends, demonstrates significant GDP growth and reduced poverty, with 265 million fewer people living in extreme conditions and malnutrition halving by 2050. Yet, these gains come at the cost of escalating carbon emissions, worsened pollution, and rising global temperatures. The fragmented world scenario predicts slow technological and economic growth, with persistently high poverty levels and unaddressed critical issues like child malnutrition and mortality. Meanwhile, the struggling together scenario highlights the potential benefits of enhanced global collaboration, which lowers poverty and malnutrition rates. However, the lack of technological progress limits its ability to effectively address broader developmental challenges, like child development and technology.

The report concludes with broad policy suggestions based on the results of the 2x2 framework. The authors encourage the strengthening of international institutions to address global environmental issues while promoting economic equality, investing in children’s health and education, and fostering greater cooperation among governments and international communities. Read more about the scenarios, their results, and the authors’ recommendations here.

IFs is the only open-source integrated assessment platform and forecasting tool that employs a hybrid approach, combining systems dynamics, econometrics, and other quantitative techniques to forecast a range of interconnected, macro-level variables across human, social, and natural systems for 188 countries in one-year time steps, extending as far as the year 2100. These multifaceted dimensions of modeling are integral to forecasting potential outcomes for future generations on a global scale, considering both actual and hypothetical drivers of change. 

UNICEF - an international organization dedicated to advancing children’s well-being around the globe - and Pardee’s collaboration bridges the gap between global decision-makers and academic researchers, using data tools and policy knowledge to encourage and assist in creating a more sustainable and equitable world for children.  

 

December 11th, 2024

The United Nations Development Programme, in collaboration with the Pardee Institute, has released a new report titled Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen.

The report hones in on a region extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change and explores the links of environmental issues to the current humanitarian crisis and lack of human development in that region. The report culminates with recommendations for several policy strategies intended to mitigate the effects of land degradation and desertification in Yemen and support vulnerable communities across the region.

The Institute’s Associate Director of Development Analysis, Taylor Hanna, co-authored the report alongside independent researchers Andrew Kruczkiewicz and Michael Owen. Pardee Institute Director Jonathan D. Moyer, Senior Scientist Barry B. Hughes, Senior Systems Developer José Solórzano, Lead Operations Manager Yutang Xiong, and Pardee Fellow Researcher Victoria Pepera also contributed to the report.

The report is intended to explore, and to help policymakers understand, the connections between land degradation and human development; it also offers key interventions aimed at mitigating the effects of land degradation and supporting improvement in human development. Notably, the report uses the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment model to explore scenarios that analyze how land degradation may affect human development in Yemen. In addition, the authors present pathways for further development in the region under differing IFs scenarios.

This report begins with a literature review exploring both the main drivers of desertification and land degradation and the links between precipitation and net primary land productivity and then moves into a detailed analysis of climate data within Yemen, including historical and projected data on temperature and precipitation. The authors note that the relationship between precipitation and land productivity is not especially strong. While land degradation may be driven in some of the regions by climate change, the larger problem lies in unsustainable agricultural practices and water use, in addition to conflict and governance challenges. Hence, reforms of these practices and policies in the region can, and should be, made to mitigate land degradation in Yemen.

Despite the weak linkage between precipitation and net land productivity, the authors note that the future evolution of precipitation patterns in Yemen could shift land degradation levels.

Many regions within Yemen are likely to see increased precipitation in the future, but exactly how is uncertain. If that increase is gradual and steady, this may provide an opportunity to strengthen “ecosystem resilience” by improving water management infrastructure and thus supporting agricultural productivity. But this increase could also come in the form of increased sporadic rainfall events which could exacerbate land degradation due to extreme flooding and interruptions in consistent agriculture yields. The authors propose new methods for analyzing precipitation in Yemen to improve accuracy in forecasting and encourage further data enhancement in the region.

The second part of the report delves into the socioeconomic impacts of land degradation in Yemen. This section uses scenario analysis with the IFs tool to demonstrate the effects of continued land degradation in the region on the Yemeni economy, agricultural yields, hunger, and poverty.

The first scenario created in the IFs tool is the Baseline scenario. This scenario is one that simulates a world without future effects of land degradation on economic and human development. This serves as a counterfactual against which we can compare the Land Degradation scenario.

In contrast, a continued Land Degradation scenario, which models the effects of land degradation on water and agricultural resources, results in lower economic and agricultural production. By 2050, this model leads to five million more people experiencing  poverty and four million more experiencing hunger than the Baseline scenario forecasts. This scenario yields lower agricultural production and leads to a reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) of 5.6 percent compared against the Baseline scenario.

The Land Restoration scenario demonstrates an effort to focus directly on preventing further land degradation, rehabilitating agricultural yields, and implementing policies to aid in environmental improvement. This scenario forecasts an increase in economic output by 15 percent by 2050 when compared against the Land Degradation scenario. It also prevents further increases in hunger and significantly decreases the undernourished population by 9 million.

The Integrated Restoration scenario builds on the previous Land Restoration scenario by adding to it an end to the current conflict, improving governance and inclusion, and addressing other key human development deficits. This scenario forecasts that GDP per capita can reach pre-conflict levels by 2055. Twenty-two million fewer Yemenis experience poverty and 13 million fewer are undernourished in this scenario’s forecast compared to the Land Degradation scenario for the same year

(Refer to the report appendices for detailed information about how each scenario was created.)

The report concludes with several targeted, restorative recommendationsfor policymakers and key regional constituents to consider. These efforts include reaching a peaceful end to the current conflict; continuing to develop and understand quality data and research regarding desertification in Yemen; enhancing water resources and agriculture practices that prevent environmental degradation; and investing in extreme-weather infrastructure. A concerted and determined effort to follow these recommendations may lead Yemen into a peaceful and sustainable future, economically and environmentally.

The Pardee Institute’s ongoing partnership with UNDP reflects the Institute’s commitment to using quantitative modeling tools to identify strategic policy interventions to advance human development and sustainability. Similarly, this research highlights our efforts to understand the linkages between environmental challenges and conflict, governance, and peace.  This project is notable as the first time IFs was used to forecast the effects of land degradation.

November 14th, 2024

The UNDP launched a new report co-authored by the Pardee Institute, Advancing the SDG Push with Equitable Low-Carbon Pathways, at the 29th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Delegates of COP29 gathered this year to discuss climate finance, grappling with the urgent need to fund clean energy and mitigate climate change impacts in developing countries. The report outlines a coordinated and dedicated policy response to advancing sustainable development and eradicating poverty. Its inclusion at COP29 reaches key country and regional decision-makers and thought leaders among the attendees, amplifying the report’s potential to capitalize on new climate action initiatives.

This report uses the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model to explore an integrated development scenario, the SDG Push 3.0. The IFs model generates long-term projections for socioeconomic and environmental indicators, helping policymakers and researchers forecast future outcomes from current development efforts. The SDG Push scenario, originally developed in 2021 in a project led by Pardee founder Dr. Barry Hughes and recently published in Sustainability, simulates an accelerated integrated global push toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDG Push has become a flagship initiative within UNDP, helping to map out transformative futures and outline how key investments can improve human lives and development globally. SDG Push 3.0 builds on this work by elaborating a framework for a just and equitable transition to a low-carbon society.

SDG Push 3.0 prioritizes fairness, particularly for those dependent on fossil fuels, while advancing sustainable development goals. It follows general principles of low-carbon pathways relating to energy use, energy efficiency, and renewable energy technology. It advocates for an increase in energy efficiency for high-income nations and an increase in energy demand for low-income nations and addresses current inequities regarding per capita energy consumption.

The UNDP report compares likely outcomes under SDG Push 3.0 against the baseline Current Path scenario developed by the Pardee Institute. The Current Path is designed to demonstrate the “most likely path forward” or “business as usual.”

The authors found that SDG Push 3.0 shows that these coordinated actions can lift 60 million people out of poverty by 2030, compared with the Current Path, and 175 million by 2050, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Improvements in health and education outcomes close the stark gap in global human development outcomes. At the same time, energy and environmental interventions will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use by 65% by 2050. The report concludes that coordinated approaches to climate and development policies, like SDG Push 3.0, can reduce inequality, promote sustainable growth, and keep global temperature rise within safe limits. It calls on countries to act quickly, update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and work together to ensure fair transitions.

This collaboration between UNDP and the Pardee Institute provides an opportunity for the institute to showcase the real-world application of its modeling tools in addressing global challenges like climate change, poverty, and inequality. Using the IF’s existing projections, the report reveals a new potential path towards a more sustainable world with hopes of being picked up by actionable stakeholders at COP29. The full report and interactive findings are available online.