Hughes, B.B., Kuhn, R., Peterson, C.M., Rothman, D.S., Solorzano, J.R. (2011). Improving global health: Forecasting the next 50 years (Patterns of potential human progress volume 3). Routledge.

The questions addressed in Improving Global Health, the third volume in the PPHP series, are:

• What health outcomes might we expect over the next 50 years given current patterns of human development?
• What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures?
• How might improved health futures affect broader economic social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?

Additional Resources:

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health All Drivers Good Adjusted Base

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health Things Go Wrong

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

Hughes, Barry B., Mohammod T. Irfan, Jonathan D. Moyer, Dale S. Rothman, and José R. Solórzano. 2011.

“Forecasting the Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development.” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Research Paper 2011/08. UNDP Human Development Report Office, New York, NY.

Cantore, Nicola. 2011. “Future Paths of Poverty: A Scenario Analysis with Integrated Assessment Models.” Chronic Poverty Research Centre Working Paper No. 200. Overseas Development Institute, London.

Cilliers, J. and Sisk, T.D. (2013). “Prospects for Africa’s 26 Fragile Countries.”

African Futures Paper No. 8. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Africa is witnessing strong and sustained high levels of economic growth and an overall reduction in conflict across the continent. New natural resource exploitation, growing urbanisation, and progress in human development goals, such as education and health, generally suggest that the African Renaissance rhetoric is being met with reality. However, the countries still experiencing conflict are caught in a vicious cycle of violence, chronic poverty, inequality, and exclusion from the gains of growth. Exploration of the prospects for these 26 countries shows them to be on a slower trajectory to long-term peace and development, and 10 are forecast to remain fragile throughout the forecast period of this paper (2050).

UNICEF. (2022). "Prospects for Children in 2022: A Global Outlook." Office of Global Insight and Policy, UNICEF.

Our 2022 outlook draws on the reflections and analysis of staff from
UNICEF’s Global Insight team, supported by the Atlantic Council and the Pardee Center for International Futures, two organizations with long track records and formidable reputations in risk analysis and foresight. Jointly, we revisited the longer-term trends examined in ‘Prospects for children’, identified those that we considered to be most relevant for children in 2022, and highlighted new trends or events to be brought to the attention of our readership. Our initial findings were debated and refined during a virtual consultation held with 18 experts, leaders and young activists from around the world on 16 November 2021.

The resulting analysis is organized around ten trends (Figure 1). Annual trends, such as the ten highlighted in this report, are inevitably highly interconnected. They emerge, in part, from megatrends such as
demographics, climate change, biodiversity loss and rapid technological changes, which will shape the world in which children live over the course of the next 30 to 50 years.

Hughes, B.B, Irfan, M.T., Khan, H., Kumar, K.B., Rothman, D.S. (2015). Reducing global poverty: Forecasting the next 50 years (Patterns of potential human progress volume 1). Routledge.

Dickson, J.R., Hughes, B.B., Irfan, M.T. (2010). Advancing global education: Forecasting the next 50 years (Patterns of potential human progress volume 2). Routledge.

Hillebrand, Evan E. 2010. “Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?” Global Economy Journal 36 (5). doi:10.2202/1524-5861.1611.

Hillebrand, E. E. (2010). Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses? : Global Economy Journal. Global Economy Journal, 10(2). https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/gej.2010.10.2/gej.2010.10.2.1611/gej.2010.10.2.1611.xml

The process of globalization is being harshly criticized for a variety of reasons, but mostly because the income of large and/or vocal segments of the population of this and other countries is threatened by the dislocation and competition of trade and investment and by the inability or unwillingness of states to compensate the losers. Based on analysis with the International Futures Model, this paper concludes that if globalization halts or recedes the results will be profoundly negative for most countries and most income groups. While a retreat into protectionism may improve income equality in some countries, it will reduce incomes of both the poor and the rich and poverty headcounts will be increased. In addition, political instability will rise in a majority of countries and the probability of interstate war will increase. These results suggest that it would be far better to deal with the negative aspects of globalization directly by improving trade adjustment assistance, providing more secure access to health care, and negotiating new international agreements that benefit all countries.

Turner, S., Cilliers, J., and Hughes, B.B. (2014). “Reducing Poverty in Africa: Realistic Targets for the Post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063.”

African Futures Paper No 10 (using 2005 as the currency reference year). Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component of the post-2015 MDG process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore that goal, and finds that even with aggressive interventions, many African states are unlikely to make the target by 2030. In addition to the use of country-level targets, this paper argues in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 using 2005 as the currency reference year (15% using 2011 purchasing power parity), and to below 3% by 2063.