Cilliers, Jake. (2025, February 25). The toll of USAID cuts on Africa. ISS Africa Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-toll-of-USAID-cuts-on-Africa?utm_source=Institute+for+security+studies&utm_campaign=375b5af3bc-Africa_Tomorrow_Blog&utm_

Andrijevic, M., Zimm, C., Moyer, J.D., Muttarak, R., et al. (2025, February 4). Representing gender inequality in scenarios improves understanding of climate challenges. Nature Climate Change. 15, 138–146. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02242-5

Achieving gender equality can increase societies’ capacities to deal with climate change. Here we highlight empirical connections between gender equality and climate change adaptation and mitigation to propose a structured and detailed inclusion of gender-related aspects in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway framework. The introduction of hypothetical pathways of gender (in)equality in the scenario space can help analyse interactions with other socioeconomic drivers and subsequent implications for adaptation and mitigation options. The extent of challenges to climate change adaptation and mitigation may substantially change depending on the rate at which societies progress towards equal access to resources and opportunities for self-realization for all genders. We propose steps that the scenario community could take to enrich the next generation of socioeconomic pathways.

Moyer, J., Sahadevan, D. (2024, December). Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/media/10201/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Navigate-Future-Report-2024.pdf

As we move through the twenty-first century, humanity faces a complex array of challenges. These mutually reinforcing issues include climate change and geopolitical instability, as well as persistent socioeconomic disparities that have profound implications for children’s well-being. At such a critical crossroads, policy choices we make today will determine the welfare of future generations. In their interest, addressing this complex web of collective action problems demands a broad-based, integrated analysis focused on comprehensive and equitable solutions.

Hanna, T., Kruczkiewicz, A., Owen, M. (2024, December 10). Land degradation and human development in Yemen. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/yemen/publications/land-degradation-and-human-development-yemen

This study, “Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen,” was commissioned by UNDP in 2024 as part of a collaboration with the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver and climate researchers. Yemen is frequently said to be experiencing one of the worst development and humanitarian crises in the world after more
than ten years of ongoing conflict. At the same time, it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and for decades has faced a worsening water crisis as well as land degradation (including deterioration of historical terracing systems), desertification and soil erosion. This report seeks to better understand how the above-mentioned phenomena could affect economic and human development in Yemen on immediate, medium and long-term timescales.

The report explores the links between climate change, land degradation and desertification, conflict, and human development outcomes in Yemen. This report begins with a review of the literature of the drivers, context, and intervening factors around land degradation and desertification in Yemen so far. This is followed by an analysis of historical subregional data on land degradation and climatic variables within
the country. Turning toward the socioeconomic effects, the report first reviews literature on the pathways through which desertification can alter agricultural production and otherwise affect economic and human development. Finally, the report uses integrated modelling techniques and scenario analysis using the  International Futures (IFs) model to explore the effect of degradation and restoration pathways on future development in Yemen. The IFs model has previously been applied to assess the effect of ongoing conflict in Yemen on human development and to examine possible recovery pathways in the Impact of War trilogy of reports and the Impact of Climate Change on Human Development produced by UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures.

Abidoye, B., Banda, A., Baumwoll, J., Carman, R., Moz-Christofoletti, M., Orlic, E., Patterson, L. (2024). Advancing the SDG Push with equitable low-carbon pathways. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/publications/advancing-sdg-push-equitable-low-carbon-pathways

The ‘SDG Push x NDC 3.0’ research, a collaboration between UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Center, outlines a framework for a fair, low-carbon energy transition that considers the needs of both wealthy and lower-income nations. The report updates the second flagship publication, Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examining an integrated set of policy strategies that accelerates climate actions while promoting human development. By supporting equitable access to energy, green investments, and digital infrastructure, it aims to foster inclusive, sustainable growth and align with the Paris Agreement targets.

The research finds that an additional 60 million people could be lifted from poverty by 2030, and upwards of 175 million people by 2050, through these ambitious, yet feasible policy choices. In addition, nine out of ten low-human development countries could make significant strides towards improving their current development outcomes by 2050 while carbon emissions are reduced by two-thirds by 2050.

Yemen voluntary national review. (2024, July). Contributions from Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, and Jonathan D. Moyer. Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation. https://hlpf.un.org/countries/yemen/voluntary-national-reviews-2024

Yemen has been experiencing an exceptional phase and highly complex conditions for ten years due to a coup by the Houthi terrorist militia against the state. One of the consequences of this war has been the collapse of the state and the redirection of development and growth trajectories into the negative for many years, with Yemen falling in all international economic, humanitarian, and social indicators. However, despite this difficult reality, the resilience and cohesion of Yemenis, along with the sincere support from brothers and friends, have been fundamental in normalizing the situation, restoring stability, and resuming the building of state institutions. Despite all the challenges, including the ongoing war and difficult economic conditions, there are efforts being made to restore building and development, with national consensus on strengthening institutional work and developing tools to interact with the world and integrate into the visions of development and prosperity of the region and the world, and to address the consequences of the war. The economic file represents a top priority in the government's agenda and its general program, including achieving sustainable development goals and enhancing economic resilience. Five main priorities have been set for the government's work in the coming phase: (a) restoring the state and achieving sustainable peace, (b) combating corruption and enhancing transparency and accountability, (c) achieving financial and administrative reform, (d) developing economic resources, and (e) maximizing the benefits from external aid and grants and directing them according to the needs and priorities of the government. Through these five priorities, we will strive to achieve tangible and clear progress towards the sustainable development goals, and we will harness all possible energies for this purpose.

Hanna, T., Hughes, B.B., Irfan, M.T., Bohl, D.K., Solórzano et al. (2024, April 16). Sustainable Development Goal Attainment in the Wake of COVID-19: Simulating an Ambitious Policy Push. Sustainability. 3309. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083309

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the world was not on course to meet key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Some significant degree of additional effort was needed before the pandemic, and the challenge is now greater. Analyzing the prospects for meeting these goals requires attention to the combined effects of the pandemic and such additional impetus. This article assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on progress toward the SDGs and explores strategies to recover and accelerate development. Utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and recognizing the near impossibility of meeting the goals by 2030, three scenarios are examined through to 2050: A pre-COVID-19 trajectory (No COVID-19), the current path influenced by the pandemic (Current Path), and a transformative SDG-focused approach prioritizing key policy strategies to accelerate outcomes (SDG Push). The pandemic led to a rise in extreme poverty and hunger, with recovery projected to be slow. The SDG Push scenario effectively addresses this, surpassing the Current Pathand achieving significant global improvements in poverty, malnutrition, and human development by 2050 even relative to the No COVID-19 path. The findings emphasize the need for integrated, transformative actions to propel sustainable development.

Moyer, J. D. (2024, February 16). A double-edged sword into a plowshare: Analyzing geopolitical implications of alternative socioeconomic development pathways. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.002

The summary discusses global challenges to sustainable development, emphasizing the need to balance human development, climate change, and geopolitics. It focuses on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), which are scenarios used in climate research to address adaptation and mitigation challenges. Using the International Futures model, the study examines the implications of alternative socioeconomic development on the future distribution of national power and international relations. The findings suggest that a sustainable development pathway may lead to geopolitical destabilization, causing transitions in regional and global power. The paper highlights the importance of integrating international relations drivers into SSPs and urges policymakers to consider both promoting sustainable development and addressing implications for geopolitical development.

Sahel Human Development Report 2023. (2024, February 15). United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/africa/publications/sahel-human-development-report-2023

Sustainable energy could regenerate Africa’s Sahelian zone by using the region’s abundant clean energy potential to transform lives, diversify economies, give hope, and protect the planet. Analyzing viable pathways to move the Sahel away from energy dependency to energy agency that delivers accessible, reliable, and affordable energy for all, is the focus of this Human Development Report, which covers Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal. The HDR uses empirical techniques and political economy analyses to consider optimal energy strategies that would be most appropriate for the sub-region and also for each country's context.

Global Outlook 2024: Prospects for children - Cooperation in a fragmented world. (2024, January). UNICEF Innocenti - Global Office of Research and Foresight.