United Nations. 2024. Global Risk Report. New York: United Nations.

The Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures conducted a detailed, risk-by-risk assessment to refine the initial list of over 100 risks identified for the report. This assessment involved defining each risk, reviewing existing literature, estimating the likelihood of each risk by 2050, and analyzing potential impacts. Furthermore, modeling data from the Pardee Institute's International Futures (IFs) integrated modeling framework was used to strengthen the robustness of the foresight scenarios presented in the report.

Hanna, T., Kelley, C., Kruczkiewicz, A., & Moyer, J. (2023, December). The Impact of Climate Change on Human Development in Yemen. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-11/impact_of_climate_change_on_human_development_in_yemen.pdf

This report presents the findings of a study on projections of climate change in Yemen and its effect on human development. The United Nations Development Programme commissioned the Pardee Center for International Futures to complete this study.

Moyer, J. D. (2023, September 25). Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 15996. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42782-

Degrowth advocates argue for structural transformations in how economies and societies prioritize material wealth accumulation to reduce the negative effects of future anthropogenic climate change. Degrowth proponents argue that human economic activity could be lessened, and societies transformed to prioritize improved wellbeing, reducing the threat of climate change. This paper explores implications of alternative patterns of economic growth with transformational policy pathways (i.e., redistribution) to assess what effects economic growth and broader policies have on changing patterns of human development across both the Global North and South. Using the International Futures model, this article shows that negative growth and societal transformations in the Global North are possible without dramatically damaging long-term global socioeconomic development, though these interventions do not solve the global climate crisis, reducing future cumulative carbon emissions by 10.5% through 2100. On the other hand, a global negative growth scenario will significantly reduce future cumulative carbon emissions (45%) but also dramatically undermines the pursuit of global development goals, like the elimination of poverty. Even with global policies that significantly increase cash transfers to the poor and retired, dramatically improve income inequality, and eliminate military spending, the Global Negative Growth Big Push scenario leads to an increase of 15 percentage points in global extreme poverty by 2100.

Burgess, M.G., Langendorf, R.E., Moyer, J.D. et al. (2023, June 22). Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. Commun Earth Environ 4(220). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7.

Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rising, then declining, as regions become richer. An empirically fitted differential-equation model and an integrated assessment model—International Futures—accounting for this pattern both predict 21st-century economic outlooks with slow growth and income convergence compared to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, similar to SSP4 (“Inequality”). For World Bank income groups, the differential-equation model could have produced, from 1980, consistent projections of 2100 GDP per capita, and more accurate predictions of 2010s growth rates than the International Monetary Fund’s short-term forecasts. Both forecasts were positively biased for the low-income group. SSP4 might therefore represent a best-case—not worst-case—scenario for 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. International Futures projects high poverty and population growth, and moderate energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions, within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway range.

Full Citation: Sahadevan, D., Hanna, T., Moz-Christofoletti, M. A., Orlic, E., Okiya, S., Abidoye, B., & Moyer, J. D. (2023). UNDP. https://data.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke476/files/2023-11/20230606_Universal-Electrification-Research-Report.pdf

Pushing for universal electricity access through Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) interventions can have powerful multi-faceted effects across economic and human development. Despite its benefits, expanding electricity access comes with significant costs that may require trade-offs in fiscal choices. By using futures modelling that captures both synergies and trade-offs of pursuing particular SDG targets, UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures (University of Denver) assessed the current state of electricity access and modelled different pathways to achieving significant milestones in electricity access, including the UN-Energy Pledge and the UNDP commitments. Read the official report and others here.

Modelling Universal Access
Development Impacts of Electrification

Full Citation: Mekonnen, S. M., Mbate, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Akol, C., Janneh, A et Al., (2022). 2022 Africa Sustainable Development Report. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-01/Africa%20Sustainable%20Development-Report_2

The Coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have all hampered Africa’s efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Halfway towards 2030, most African countries are struggling to meet most SDG targets. Without deliberate policies to accelerate progress towards the SDGs, by 2030, at least 492 million people will be left in extreme poverty and at least 350 million people by 2050.

The report evaluates Africa’s progress towards the SDGs and the objectives of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 in the context of the triple crises of COVID-19, climate change, and the war in Ukraine, which are all adversely impacting the continent’s performance on both agendas.

Full Citation: Verhagen, W., Meziere, M. E., Bohl, D. K., Howe, B., & Moyer, J. (2010). Guinea-Bissau: Exploring Alternative Futures of Development - Report 2. Pardee Center for International Futures. https://korbel.du.edu/pardee/Guinea-Bissau/en

UNDP Guinea Bissau & Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Bissau, Guinea-Bissau and Denver, USA. Access translations:

French Version
Portuguese Version

Rafa, Mickey and Kabandula, Abigail and Bohl, David and Yang, Vivian and Kwasi, Stellah and Hanna, Taylor and Moyer, Jonathan D., Advancing Development in Uganda: Evaluating Policy Choices and Their Long-Term Impact (March 25, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4066838

The policy, programming, and donor communities in Uganda face a range of competing priorities that will shape future patterns of development. Various factors will determine which policies should be prioritized, including long-term patterns of human, social and environmental development. This report is motivated by the desire to better understand the future of development in Uganda to support these decision-makers as they choose among various policy options in a future characterized by uncertainty.

Verhagen, W., Pereira, C. C., Bohl, D. K., Meziere, M. E., Irfan, M. T., Moyer J. M. (2022). "Guinea-Bissau: Exploring Alternative Futures of Development. Report 1: Economic and human development trends to 2040."

UNDP Guinea Bissau & Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Bissau, Guinea-Bissau and Denver, USA.

Access translations:

• French version
• Portuguese version

In December 2021, Senior Research Associate Taylor Hanna presented the Pardee Institute's research on the impacts of conflict on human development in Yemen at an event hosted by the Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen (OSESGY). The OSESGY convened a group of 16 Yemeni businesswomen in Amman for a series of consultations over several days designed to solicit participants’ views on the peace process, the effects of the conflict on the private sector and business community, and broader economic issues and challenges faced by businesswomen in Yemen. Taylor joined remotely and presented an overview of the report’s findings and dug deeper into the Empowered Women scenario to explore the critical role of women for Yemen’s post-conflict recovery. The presentation was followed by a Q&A and discussion.