Cilliers, J. and Camp, H. (2013). “Highway or Byway? The National Development Plan 2030.”

African Futures Paper No. 6. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to explore the feasibility of the central economic growth target in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. The authors conclude that the growth target (5.4% average annual growth in GDP) and an associated income per capita target are both very ambitious and will require a huge effort, clear leadership, and painful adjustments if they are to be achieved. They point out that other important targets in the Plan, such as in education and infrastructure, are achievable with lower rates of economic growth.

Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2019.

"The Future of Guatemalan Education." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano. 2019.

"The Future of Honduran Education." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Central America Mission. Developed in collaboration with Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development under task order AID-OAA-M-12-00020. It was prepared by Alex Porter, David Bohl, Sarah Dickerson, Barry Hughes, Mohammod Irfan, Jonathan Moyer, Kanishka Naryan, Andrew Scott, and José Solórzano of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

Verhagen, W., Pereira, C. C., Bohl, D. K., Meziere, M. E., Irfan, M. T., & Moyer, J. D. (2022, March). Exploring Alternative Futures of Development: Economic and Human Development Trends to 2040. https://korbel.du.edu/sites/default/files/2022-03/DU-UNDP_G

Guinea-Bissau is currently one of the least developed countries in the world, ranking 178th out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index (2019). We study the economic and human development outlook to 2040. We show that economic growth will improve the human condition in Guinea-Bissau (extreme poverty, undernourishment and child stunting), but that progress remains stunted without addressing broader development progress in education, governance and infrastructure.

Hedden, S., Moyer, J.D., and Rettig, J. (2013). “Fracking for Shale Gas in South Africa: Blessing or Curse?”

African Futures Paper No. 9. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

South Africa is poised to move forward with shale gas development through hydraulic fracturing or "fracking," exploring what experts believe to be the eighth largest shale gas reserve in the world. For a country that currently is almost wholly dependent on coal production, shale gas development could be a game-changer. Yet, the possible environmental impacts could also be devastating. The International Futures model is used to explore both the possibilities and some of the risks of fracking for South Africa.

Narayan, K., and Donnenfeld, Z. (2016). "Envisioning a Healthy Future: Africa's Shifting Burden of Disease." African Futures Paper No. 18. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel Schoo

Africa has the highest prevalence of communicable diseases in the world. In 2015, more than three times as many people died from AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than ten times as many people died from malaria as in the rest of the world combined. Non-communicable diseases are also increasing on the continent. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore the effects on human development of Africa’s achieving targets 3.3 and 3.4 of the Sustainable Development Goals: respectively, eradication of selected communicable diseases, and a reduction in premature deaths from non-communicable diseases by one-third by 2030.

Moyer, J.D. and Firnhaber, E. (2012). “Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa.”

African Futures Brief No. 4. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Despite possessing large tracts of rich, uncultivated land, Africa is a net importer of food and suffers from high levels of undernutrition. Many have argued that a "Green Revolution," defined by increasing crop yields and land under cultivation, could bring about a more sustainable future for the continent. In this policy brief we explore not only the scope and impacts of policy choices that would increase yields and land under cultivation in Africa, but also interventions to facilitate the consumption of the increased food supplies by those in need within Africa.

Moyer Jonathan D., David K. Bohl, Taylor Hanna, Brendan R. Mapes, and Mickey Rafa. 2019.

“Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen”. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. Denver: Report for UNDP (2019).

Moyer, J.D., Bohl, D.K., Hanna, T., Mapes, B.R. and Rafa, M. (2019).“Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen”. Frederick S. Denver: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. UN Report.

Prior to the escalation of conflict in 2015, development in Yemen was strained. A country of 30 million people, Yemen ranked: (a) 153rd on the Human Development Index (HDI); (b) 138th in extreme poverty; (c) 147th in life expectancy; (d) 172nd in educational attainment; and, (e) was in the World Bank low-middle income category. Projections suggest that Yemen would not have achieved any of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 even in the absence of conflict.

Moyer, J.D., Bohl, D.K., Hanna, T., Mayaki, I. and Bwalya, M. (2018). Africa’s path to 2063: Choice in the face of great transformation.

Denver, CO and Midrand, Johannesburg: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency

Africa’s Path to 2063: Choice in the Face of Great Transformation is a report researched and written by the Pardee Center’s Jonathan D. Moyer, David K. Bohl, and Taylor Hanna, in collaboration with Ibrahim Mayaki and Martin Bwalya from New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), the technical arm of the African Union.

Invited by the African Union and launched in February 2019 at the 32nd African Union Summit and the 37th. Session of NEPAD Heads of State and Government Orientation Committee Meeting. the report uses IFs to take a long-term, macro, and integrated approach to thinking about four transformations already taking place in Africa: demography, human development and inequality, technology, and the environment. The analysis seeks to inform policy, investment, and development choices for Africa’s pursuit of Agenda 2063 and the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.

ISBN-13: 978-1-7335865-0-4

Moyer, J.D., Bohl, D.K., Hanna, T., Mayaki, I. and Bwalya, M. (2018). Africa’s path to 2063: Choice in the face of great transformation. Denver, CO and Midrand, Johannesburg: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency