Irfan, T. Mohammod. 2017. "IFs Education Model Documentation." Working paper 2015.06.16. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

Cantore, Nicola, and Massimiliano Cali. 2015. “The Impact of Temporary Migration on Source Countries.” International Migration Review. doi:10.1111/imre.12178.

Joshi, Devin K., Barry B. Hughes, and Timothy D. Sisk. 2015. “Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50 Years.” World Development 70: 286–302.

Moyer, Jonathan D., Alex Porter, Shelby Johnson, Jason R. Moyer, and David K. Bohl. 2015.

"Advancing development in Uganda: evaluating policy choices for 2016-21 and selected impacts to 2040." Invited Research Paper for USAID, Uganda Mission. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

Hughes, Barry B., Randall Kuhn, Eli S. Margolese-Malin, Dale S. Rothman, and José R. Solórzano. 2014.

“Opportunities and Challenges of a World with Negligible Senescence.” Final Report to the SENS Foundation. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

Schünemann, J. (2014, October). “Why Strategic Foresight Matters for Africa.” African Futures Paper No 12. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver.

Over the past five decades, Africa has experienced great transition and change. Many positive developments are taking shape on the continent. Overall, human development is improving, conflict has declined, and sustained economic growth presents genuine opportunities for development. Yet, many structural challenges persist, and the pressure to tackle these simultaneously is probably the most complex task the continent faces today. Africa needs to deepen its strategic reflection in order to anticipate the future with confidence. It must think more systematically about long-term trends and plan for the future if it is to take advantage of opportunities arising from economic growth.

Donnenfeld, Z., Porter, A., Cilliers, J., Moyer, J.D., Scott, A.C., Maweni, J. & Aucoin, C. 2017. Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's prospects to 2030.

Policy Brief: Institute for Security Studies and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, Denver, CO.

Few African countries have developed as rapidly as Ethiopia over the past 25 years and that economic growth has also been paired with a sizeable expansion of service delivery. Nonetheless, Ethiopians continue to suffer from some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any country in Africa – and indeed the world. This policy brief summarises the results from a more comprehensive study that explores options for the Government of Ethiopia and its development partners to advance human development and economic growth between now and 2030.

Burt, Alison, Barry B. Hughes, and Gary Milante. 2014.

“Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the ‘High-Hanging’ Fruit by 2030.” Policy Research Working Paper No.7002. Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C.

M.T., Hughes, B.B., Dale S. Rothman Margolese-Malin, E., Moyer, J.D. (2014). Building global infrastructure: Forecasting the next 50 years (Patterns of potential human progress volume 4). Routledge.

Volume 4 in the PPHP series tells a story of possible futures for basic infrastructure (access to all-season roads, electricity, improved water and sanitation, and information and communication technologies) across the globe. Questions addressed by Building Global Infrastructure are:

• How much basic infrastructure is likely to be in place over the next 50 years?
• What will infrastructure access rates be in countries around the world?
• Are there aggressive but reasonable ways to accelerate the provision of basic infrastructure, taking into account the currently-different levels of infrastructure across countries and other country-specific circumstances?

Additional Resources:

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Good Performance 2050 Targets

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Universal 2050 Targets

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

Shepherd, Andrew, Lucy Scott, Chiara Mariotti, Flora Kessy, Raghav Gaiha, Lucia da Corta, Katharina Hanifnia, et al. 2014.

“The Chronic Poverty Report 2014−2015: The Road to Zero Extreme Poverty.” Report of the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network. Overseas Development Institute, London.