United States Agency for International Development (USAID). 2013. “Getting to Zero.” A Discussion Paper on Ending Extreme Poverty.”

Birkmann, Joern, Susan L. Cutter, Dale S. Rothman, Torsten Welle, Matthias Garschagen, Bas J. Van Ruijven, Brian O’Neill, et al. 2013.

“Scenarios for Vulnerability: Opportunities and Constraints in the Context of Climate Change and Disaster Risk.” Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2.

Moyer, Jonathan D., Jessica Rettig, David K. Bohl, and Barry B. Hughes. 2013.

"NEPAD’s Integrated Approach for African Development: The Big Push to 2063." Invited Research Paper for The New Partnership for African Development Planning and Coordinating Agency. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver, CO.

Shepherd, Andrew, Tom Mitchell, Kirsty Lewis, Amanda Lenhardt, Lindsey Jones, Lucy Scott, and Robert Muir-Wood. 2013. “The Geography of Poverty, Disasters and Climate Extremes in 2030.” Overseas Development Institute, London.

West, J. Jason, Steven J. Smith, Raquel A. Silva, Vaishali Naik, Yuqiang Zhang, Zachariah Adelman, Meridith M. Fry, et al. 2013.

“Co-Benefits of Mitigating Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Future Air Quality and Human Health via Two Mechanisms.” Nature Climate Change 3 (10): 885–889. doi:10.1038/nclimate2009.

Gehring, K., Irfan, M.T., McLennan, P., Moyer, J.D., Selebalo, H. and Torkelson, E. (2011). “Knowledge Empowers Africa: The Benefits of Increased Investment in Education.”

African Futures Brief No. 2. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This paper presents two scenarios for the continued advancement of education in Africa and explores their impacts on development. Rates of completion of primary education and of enrollment in secondary education are simulated for a Base Case and for a positive scenario with enhanced (aggressive but plausible) rates of participation. The modeled impacts of the two scenarios on reductions of childhood undernutrition, poverty, and state failure are compared. A preliminary cost-benefit analysis is included.

Pardee Center for International Futures (Barry. B. Hughes, ed.). 2013.

“Development-Oriented Policies and Alternative Human Development Paths: Aggressive but Reasonable Interventions.” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Occasional Paper 2013/05. UNDP Human Development Report Office, New York, NY.

Pardee Center for International Futures (Barry B. Hughes, ed.). 2013.

“Development-Oriented Policies and Alternative Human Development Paths: Aggressive but Reasonable Interventions.” In Khalid Malik and Maurice Kugler, eds., Human Progress and the Rising South. UNDP

Radusin, Svjetlana, Senad Opraṥiḉ, Mehmed Cero, Isak Abdurahmanoviḉ, and Goran Vukmir. 2013.

“Climate Change Adaptation and Low-Emission Development Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina.” United Nations Development Program in Bosnia and Herzegovina and United Nations Development Programme Regional Office, Bratislava.

Pardee Center for International Futures (Barry B. Hughes, ed.). 2013. “Development-Oriented Policies and Alternative Human Development Paths: Aggressive but Reasonable Interventions.” In Khalid Malik and Maurice Kugler, eds., Human Progress and the Rising