Hughes, B. B. (2026). International Futures: Exploring and Shaping. London Academic Press, An Imprint Of Elsevier.

eBook ISBN: 978-3-032-22084-4

ISBN: 978-3-032-22083-7

Pardee Institute founding Director, Barry Hughes, has published the fifth edition of Exploring and Shaping International Futures, an open-access book that makes the foundations of International Futures available as a practical guide for learning, teaching, scenario analysis, and long-term policy thinking.

The book updates earlier editions for the eighth generation of IFs and is organized around three questions: What future would we like? Where do current trends appear to be taking us? And what leverage do people and institutions have to shape what comes next? Across chapters on population, economics, human well-being, food and agriculture, energy, the environment, and domestic and global sociopolitical systems, Hughes connects forecasts, model insights, and points of intervention to help readers examine uncertainty, choices, and possible futures.

Moyer, Jonathan D., & Meisel, Collin J. (2026, March 16). “Climate change modelling and international relations: in pursuit of an integrated, long-term research agenda” in Handbook on the Geopolitics of Sustainability. (pgs. 368-378). Edward Elgar Publishing.

In this book chapter, Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer and Director of Analysis Collin Meisel, identify a crucial disciplinary gap between international relations theory and climate change modelling. To help bridge this divide, Moyer and Meisel call for an integrated research agenda that aligns international relations with the long-term, large-scale quantitative forecasting models utilized by climate researchers. By incorporating a “systems map” approach, researchers can establish a baseline forecast of the international system to test the complex, interacting geopolitical impacts of direct climate effects, mitigation, and adaptation.

Explore the full chapter here.

Sweijs, T., & Michaels, J. (2024, July). "Forecasting the future of war" in Beyond Ukraine: Debating the future of war. (pp. 287–303). Oxford University Press.

Hughes, B. B. (2019). International Futures: Building and Using Global Models. London Academic Press, An Imprint Of Elsevier.

eBook ISBN: 9780128134221
Hardcover ISBN: 9780128042717
In March 2019, International Futures: Building and Using Global Models by Barry B. Hughes was published by Elsevier Academic Press. The volume has two purposes: (1) to explain (by no means fully document) the International Futures (IFs) model system and (2) to place it in the context of the larger environment of global modeling. It thereby is commentary on the state of the enterprise of building and using global models, its strengths and challenges.

Founding Director of the Pardee Center and developer of IFs, Dr. Hughes is a Distinguished University Professor at the Korbel School and now serves as Senior Scientist and Mentor to the Center. His principal interests are in global change, computer simulation models for economic, energy, food, population, environmental, and sociopolitical forecasting, and policy analysis. The fundamental concerns that synthesize these interests are developing effective response to long-term global change and improving the long-term human condition.

M.T., Hughes, B.B., Dale S. Rothman Margolese-Malin, E., Moyer, J.D. (2014). Building global infrastructure: Forecasting the next 50 years (Patterns of potential human progress volume 4). Routledge.

Volume 4 in the PPHP series tells a story of possible futures for basic infrastructure (access to all-season roads, electricity, improved water and sanitation, and information and communication technologies) across the globe. Questions addressed by Building Global Infrastructure are:

• How much basic infrastructure is likely to be in place over the next 50 years?
• What will infrastructure access rates be in countries around the world?
• Are there aggressive but reasonable ways to accelerate the provision of basic infrastructure, taking into account the currently-different levels of infrastructure across countries and other country-specific circumstances?

Additional Resources:

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Good Performance 2050 Targets

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Universal 2050 Targets

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

Pardee Center for International Futures (Barry B. Hughes, ed.). 2013.

“Development-Oriented Policies and Alternative Human Development Paths: Aggressive but Reasonable Interventions.” In Khalid Malik and Maurice Kugler, eds., Human Progress and the Rising South. UNDP

Irfan, Mohammod T., and Eli S. Margolese-Malin. 2012.

Hughes, B.B., Kuhn, R., Peterson, C.M., Rothman, D.S., Solorzano, J.R. (2011). Improving global health: Forecasting the next 50 years (Patterns of potential human progress volume 3). Routledge.

The questions addressed in Improving Global Health, the third volume in the PPHP series, are:

• What health outcomes might we expect over the next 50 years given current patterns of human development?
• What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures?
• How might improved health futures affect broader economic social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?

Additional Resources:

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health All Drivers Good Adjusted Base

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health Things Go Wrong

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

Hughes, Barry B., Jonathan D. Moyer, and Timothy D. Sisk. 2011. “Vulnerability to Intrastate Conflict: Evaluating Quantitative Measures.” Peaceworks No. 72. United States Institute of Peace, Washington, DC.

Hughes, B.B, Irfan, M.T., Khan, H., Kumar, K.B., Rothman, D.S. (2015). Reducing global poverty: Forecasting the next 50 years (Patterns of potential human progress volume 1). Routledge.