Commentaries Archives - Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs

Meisel, C. (2026, May 11). What happens when the US population peaks? The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/5868017-shrinking-us-population-trends/

In a new opinion piece for The Hill, Collin Meisel, director of analysis at the Pardee Institute, examines a fast-approaching demographic challenge: Without net immigration, the U.S. population will shrink.

Drawing on scenario analysis using International Futures (IFs), Meisel argues that population-shrinking immigration policies could weaken the economic foundation of U.S. national power, making it easier for China to challenge U.S. primacy by mid-century. Fewer people — especially fewer young workers — means less economic activity, slower growth and a weaker foundation for long-term national power. While productivity gains from tools such as artificial intelligence could help offset some losses, Meisel notes that those gains are unlikely to restore U.S. advantage if other countries benefit from similar advances.

Immigration, in this framing, is more than a domestic policy issue. It is a strategic variable shaping the future of U.S. economic strength and geopolitical influence.

McKee, K., & Meisel, C. (2025). We tracked every overseas trip by world leaders since the end of the Cold War – here’s what we found. The Conversation. https://doi.org/10.64628/aai.5xf7pq6p5

Meisel, C. (2025, August 21). Right-sizing Africa’s “China challenge”. ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/Right-sizing-Africas-China-challenge

Burrows, M., Meisel, C. (2025, April 16). Why Russia Isn’t Doomed. The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-russia-isnt-doomed

‌

Cilliers, Jake. (2025, February 25). The toll of USAID cuts on Africa. ISS Africa Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/The-toll-of-USAID-cuts-on-Africa?utm_source=Institute+for+security+studies&utm_campaign=375b5af3bc-Africa_Tomorrow_Blog&utm_

Meisel, C. (2025, January 13). From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/from-myanmar-to-gaza-ukraine-to-sudan-2024-was-another-grim-year-accord

Meisel, C. (2024, December 12). In Syria, be careful what you wish for. Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/in-syria-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/

Meisel, C., Lin, B., Greitens, S.C., & Shugart, T. (2024, July 24). In brief: China’s third plenum. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/ 07/in-brief-chinas-third-plenum

Last week, the Chinese Communist Party held its third plenum, a closed door meeting of high-level party officials that has historically indicated the country’s policy direction on major issues, such as the economy. This was the first third plenum held since 2018 and was hotly anticipated, especially considering China’s faltering economic growth. We asked four experts to tell us more about the outcomes of the meeting and what this might indicate about China’s strategy in the coming months and years.