Burrows, M., Meisel, C., & Chalikyan, N. (2025). Russia Futures. The Stimson Center.

For decades, Western experts have viewed Russia as a declining power citing a lack of population growth, technology innovation, and a falling GDP for its decline. While it is unlikely to return to its former status, Russia is gaining higher favorability among China, India, and various states across the Global South, establishing alternative multilateral institutions and leaving the West behind. Increased trade with China has nearly met former economic ties with Europe, illustrating a shift in priorities for Putin. The Russian people—trending older—however, would like to see strengthened ties with the United States or other Global South countries. Failure to adjust to the demands of an aging population, while prioritizing commodities and the War in Ukraine could constrain Russian power domestically and globally. Significant investment in the Global South and Central Asia, climate change, and a Northern Sea Route in the Arctic, could shift the narrative for Russia moving forward, revitalizing its power and influence. This report examines three potential scenarios for Russia over the next ten years: a “Sovietized” Russia, set on boosting defense spending; a Great Patriotic War against the West, with Russia increasing its reliance on China; and a Reborn Russia, taking advantage of its geographical ties and influence on the Global South.

Meisel, C. (2024, February 20). Accelerating Change But Not Necessarily an Inflection Point. Stimson. https://www.stimson.org/2024/accelerating-change-but-not-necessarily-an-inflection-point/

Today’s world is characterized by enormous change — but also tremendous continuity. By overemphasizing the former at the expense of the latter, policymakers risk underestimating the applicability of past lessons to today’s challenges. They also risk “inflection-point fatigue,” where assertions that “this time it is different” are ignored when “this time” it actually is different. For the term “inflection point” to meaningfully inform strategic planning efforts, decision-makers need to be clear about what does and does not qualify as such, and assess situations accordingly.

Full Citation: Meisel, Collin J., Caleb L. Petry, Jonathan D. Moyer, and Mathew Burrows. n.d. “Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios.” Stimson.

Putin’s invasion and Xi’s pandemic mismanagement have opened a narrow window of strategic opportunity for the West