Pardee Institute Hosts ISS for Data-Driven Dialogue on Africa’s Future

By: Wara Irfan

Africa faces its own unique development challenges, aspirations, and constraints, said Senior Researcher Alize le Roux of the Institute of Security Studies’ African Futures & Innovation (AFI) program during a conversation hosted by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute on September 9, 2025. The event, moderated by Awa Sanneh, President of Students for Africa at Joseph Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, included a lively discussion and audience Q&A.

Joined by fellow ISS AFI Senior Researcher and economist Blessing Chipanda, le Roux emphasized that the African Union’s Agenda 2063 serves as a “blueprint” for the continent, aligning individual national development plans with a broader vision encompassing all 54 African countries. Agenda 2063 is Africa’s 50-year plan to become prosperous, integrated, and peaceful through seven aspirations and successive Ten-Year Plans.

The ISS is a leading Pan-African think tank dedicated to research and policy engagement on issues of human security. For nearly 15 years, ISS has partnered with the Pardee Institute to use the International Futures (IFs) model. Together, they build knowledge about Africa’s development pathways and create alternative scenarios to help policymakers shape strategies for improved outcomes. ISS and Pardee also collaborate with the AU and its Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) to inform key aspects of Agenda 2063.

Le Roux and Chipanda began by walking the audience through two of the more than 4,000 interactive graphs available on the African Futures website, which employs IFs, to show how long-term forecasting and scenario planning can inform Africa’s development trajectory and support Agenda 2063.

Alize le Roux addresses the audience. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman.

The first graph explored GDP per capita in Africa relative to the rest of the world from 1960 to 2023. While Africa’s GDP per capita has been “growing since 1960 to 2023, [...] it's growing very slowly in relation to that of the rest of the world,” le Roux said, noting that the gap has widened, from roughly $2,700 in 1960 to just under $15,000 in 2023, and is projected to exceed $21,000 by 2043. 

The takeaway, she underscored, is that there is wealth generation on the continent, but it is “very unequally distributed” and “not translating into real poverty reduction”.

The second graph focused on poverty trends.  While the UN Sustainable Development Goal is to reduce poverty to below 3% by 2030, AFI projections show that Africa’s poverty could remain around 26% in 2030 without significant intervention.

“This is really the foundation of our work,” she said. They  AFI considers Africa’s current development trajectory, or the Current Path, and explore how policies and scenarios can accelerate development and reduce poverty more rapidly.

Chipanda then introduced AFI’s scenario analysis approach, which explores how targeted policy interventions might alter these trends. AFI has developed eight sectoral scenarios, covering governance, demographics and health, agriculture, education, manufacturing, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), large Infrastructure and leapfrogging, and financial flows, and then combines them into a “Combined Scenario” that estimates the overall impact on development outcomes. 

Blessing Chipanda gives an overview of the African Futures website. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman. 

“Our analyses are done at the country level. Then we form what is called a Combined Scenario,” Chipanda explained. He highlighted results showing that agriculture, infrastructure, and manufacturing have the greatest impact on GDP per capita across different country income groups. For extreme poverty, the Combined Scenario showed a decline from 385 million people, forecasted by the Current Path, to 168 million by 2043.

Both speakers emphasized the importance of open access to these data and scenarios. Everything they produce is publicly accessible, Chipanda said, encouraging students and researchers to explore interactive graphs on their website and country reports online.

Jonathan D. Moyer leads a structured conversation with le Roux and Chipanda. Photograph taken by Pam Hoberman.

Following the presentation, Pardee Institute Director Jonathan D. Moyer led the conversation with le Roux and Chipanda on career pathways and lessons learned in development work. 

Le Roux reflected on her 14 years working in research and development before joining AFI. “Good research does not automatically speak for itself,” she said. One can produce excellent tools and findings, but if they are not effectively communicated to decision-makers, they will not drive change. She also stressed the importance of networks, and as a student, it is important to build relationships as they will matter later in your career.  

Chipanda shared how his background in economics led him to scenario building and modeling, highlighting the collaborative nature of AFI’s work with policymakers across Africa. 

The event concluded with an open Q&A, moderated by Sanneh, with students asking about the challenges of aligning national development plans with continental goals, the role of governance reforms, and the future updates to AFI’s scenarios. 

The session highlighted the power of data-driven foresight in shaping policy and offered students and researchers a practical view of how models like IFs can address some of Africa’s most pressing development challenges.