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Frederick S. Pardee
Institute for International Futures
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Getting Started

Start Using International Futures
Begin with a question, then compare scenarios.

International Futures (IFs) helps users examine how assumptions about connected global systems may shape plausible futures. IFs does not predict a single future; it helps users compare outcomes under different assumptions.

Use this page to learn the basics, choose your starting point, frame a useful IFs question, and begin working with scenarios responsibly.

What to know before you begin

Use this page to choose the right version of International Futures (IFs), open IFs Online, download IFs Desktop, and check system requirements.
IFs begins with a Base Case
The IFs Base Case is a reference scenario. Users compare alternative scenarios against the Base Case to examine how different assumptions may change projected outcomes.
Scenarios depend on assumptions
Scenario results reflect the assumptions users choose and the model relationships represented in IFs. Results should be interpreted as conditional pathways, not predictions.
Systems are connected
IFs links major systems, including population, economics, education, health, agriculture, energy, environment, infrastructure, governance, human development, and international relations. Changes in one area may affect others over time.
Once those basics are clear, the next step is choosing the version of IFs or the resource that fits your purpose. Some users only need to see examples. Others need the desktop platform, model documentation, or learning materials before building their own scenarios.

Next: choose your starting point

Choose your starting point

Different users come to IFs with different needs. Some want a quick demonstration. Some need to install the full platform. Others want to understand the model structure before changing assumptions. Use the options below to find the right entry point.
After you choose a starting point, the most important step is framing a question that IFs can help examine. Strong IFs questions are usually not about predicting one outcome. They are about comparing plausible pathways and understanding how assumptions affect results.

Frame a useful IFs question

A strong IFs analysis begins with a question the model can help examine.

Useful questions usually specify:

  • Geography
  • Time horizon
  • Outcome of interest
  • Uncertainty, assumption, or policy choice
  • Relevant systems
Once you have a question, use the basic workflow below to move from exploration to interpretation. The goal is not to produce a single answer, but to compare pathways and understand which assumptions drive different results.

Explore what IFs can answer

Suggested examples:

Less useful: 
What will happen to poverty?
More useful: 
How might faster educational attainment and slower population growth affect poverty in Kenya by 2050?
Less useful: 
What is the future of energy?
More useful: 
How might different assumptions about renewable energy costs affect electricity production, emissions, and economic growth through 2060?
Less useful: 
Will conflict increase poverty?
More useful: 
How might changes in governance, income, population age structure, and regional instability affect conflict risk over the next several decades?

Follow the basic workflow

Use this sequence when beginning an IFs analysis.

A basic IFs workflow:

  1. Start with a question
    Define the geography, time horizon, outcome, and assumption you want to examine.

  2. Review the Base Case
    Define the geography, time horizon, outcome, and assumption you want to examine.

  3. Identify relevant model areas
    Choose the systems most directly related to your question. Add related systems only when they help explain the outcome.

  4. Build or compare scenarios
    Change assumptions carefully. Keep track of what you changed and why.

  5. Interpret results with limits in mind
    Compare scenario results against the Base Case. Explain the assumptions behind the result and avoid presenting projections as predictions.

As you work through a question, you may need to understand how one variable connects to others in the model. The IFs network diagram can help you trace those relationships before or after building a scenario.

Next: use the IFs network diagram

Use the IFs network diagram

The IFs network diagram helps users visualize relationships among variables and model areas.

Use it when you want to:

  • Trace direct and indirect relationships.
  • Explore how variables connect.
  • Understand links across model areas.
  • Share model relationships with students, collaborators, or project teams.

The network diagram is a support tool. It should be used alongside documentation and scenario interpretation, not as a complete representation of the model.

Open the IFs network diagram

Continue learning

We created a series of tutorial videos to help new users learn how International Futures (IFs) is structured, how to move through the platform, and how to begin working with data, displays, scenarios, and extended features.

We also offer several modalities for comprehensive instruction on using IFs. From an online microcredential, to in-person instruction, to custom group trainings, find the learning pathway that is right for you.

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