Research

The work of the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures is guided by its vision of building and disseminating increased knowledge for future wellbeing through the use of data and quantitative tools.

We are primarily interested in understanding the world as an interconnected set of systems. To that end, we engage in integrated assessment modeling and its application to questions of sustainable human, social, and environmental development. Another focus for our work is the creation of unique datasets and indices related to geopolitical analysis and international relations.

Our work is carried out by two subject-area teams, one focused on sustainable development analysis and one focused on geopolitical analysis. Their work is supported by a third team—the researchers, modelers, and data managers who maintain and enhance our International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment model.

Our goal is to foster a long-term dialogue among and across the scientific, policymaking, and modeling/data communities. Our partners include academics, governments, non-governmental organizations, international governmental organizations, think tanks, and private companies.

Learn about the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures research by reading more.

Out now! Explore our research further in our most recent Annual Review.

Read Here

Our Research Teams

Sustainable Development Analysis

The sustainable development analysis team at the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures uses the International Futures (IFs) model and long-term systems thinking to better understand the future and to help our partners deal with complex development issues.

IFs is an integrated assessment model that connects multiple interacting subject area domains (agriculture, economy, education, energy, governance, health, infrastructure, and population) in scenarios that explore possible long-term futures. Analysis with IFs ranges from the global to the subnational level and from assessing broad risks and trends to exploring focused challenges.

One focus for the work of the sustainable development analysis team in recent years is quantifying and understanding the development effects of climate change. Some of our partners in this work include the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7), The United Nations Development Program (UNDP), UN Women, and USAID. Another recent focus is understanding the role of global systems of cooperation and coordination in addressing global risks and challenges. Some of our partners for that work include the African Union (AUDA-NEPAD), UNDP Yemen, and UNICEF (Global Outlook 2024).

Explore our research section further to learn more about these and other projects.

Geopolitical Analysis

Through data-building, tool-building, and analysis, our geopolitical analysis team seeks to quantify, track, and forecast international trends.

This team studies both long-term historical patterns and forecasts to seek out where we, as an international community, may be heading. Focusing on diplomatic, economic, cultural, and security-related trends, we explore deeply complicated questions about the future of the international system.

Our geopolitical analysis team has created and continues to maintain several datasets that analyze the above themes. These include, for example, the Perceived Mass Atrocities Dataset (PMAD), Country and Organization Leader Travel (COLT) dataset, and Formal Bilateral Index Capacity (FBIC) — all of which, at their core, seek to answer: What can we measure and how can we measure it?

To explore these datasets, explore the Diplometrics section of our research page.

Model Development

The International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment model is foundational to the Institute’s analysis of global futures and to our support of such work by others around the world.

Our development team adjusts and updates this signature tool to ensure that the forecasts and analyses we share with the world remain robust and effective.

Recently, this team completed a transition of the model’s underlying software system from Visual Basic to VB.NET, a transition that was important for maintaining the long-term viability of IFs.

Explore our IFs tool here.