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Welcome to the Pardee Institute for International Futures

Building a more knowable future

Explore our researchUse International Futures
Working at the intersection of forecasting and foresight, we use empirical analysis and integrated modeling to reason across systems, time horizons, and uncertainty. 
Our research starts with questions that rarely fit within one sector, country, or time horizon. The projects below show how Pardee researchers and partners use data, models, and scenarios to examine change across connected systems.
By connecting system dynamics often treated in isolation, IFs lets users test plausible pathways through a transparent, internally consistent framework.

Our Areas of Study

Pardee’s research is organized around three connected areas of study. Each uses data, models, and scenarios to examine change across time, sectors, and systems.

 

IFs methodology & development

This work strengthens the research foundation behind Pardee’s long-term analysis. Grounded in systems-based science and anchored by International Futures, the team advances interdisciplinary scholarship on how human, social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical systems interact over time.  This work helps maintain the rigor and credibility of IFs while expanding how scenario-based modeling can support research, teaching, and decision-making.

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Development analysis

Pardee’s development analysis uses IFs to examine how policies, resources, and structural trends may shape human development over time. Through scenario-based analysis, we study pathways across sectors such as education, health, poverty, infrastructure, climate, and governance, helping partners compare tradeoffs and plan under uncertainty.

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Geopolitical analysis

Many consequential changes in international affairs are difficult to see clearly in the moment. Diplomatic behavior, influence, and state relationships often escape notice unless they appear in a summit, crisis, or headline. Through data-building, tool-building, and analysis, Pardee’s geopolitical work makes some of those harder-to-see dynamics more legible for researchers, policymakers, journalists, and practitioners.

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Our Research Approach

Finding structure in uncertainty

The future cannot be reduced to a single path. But long-term trends can reveal patterns, constraints, and possibilities. Pardee uses integrated modeling, data-building, and scenario analysis to study how those trends interact, where uncertainty matters most, and how different assumptions may shape plausible outcomes.

We use “what if” questions to study how global systems may change and unfold over time under different assumptions. Our long-horizon, systems-based analysis helps users:

Clarify which trends are durable

Some patterns are more durable than others. We study historical data and structural relationships to identify trends that can provide context for research, analysis, and planning.

Trace how change moves across systems

We examine how changes in one area may shape outcomes elsewhere, including tradeoffs across sectors, countries, and time horizons.

Compare plausible pathways

Scenario analysis using International Futures allows users to compare how different assumptions, conditions, or interventions may shape future outcomes.

Together, these steps help turn uncertainty into a structured set of questions: What seems durable? What could change? Which assumptions matter most?

Browse our body of work

Our tools and data

Our approach is grounded in tools and datasets built for comparison, transparency, and reuse.

International Futures (IFs)

International Futures (IFs) is Pardee’s flagship modeling platform. Built over more than 40 years, IFs is grounded in social science methods and an extensive, integrated data infrastructure. Historical data series, many beginning in 1960, help us study past trends, understand current trajectories, and examine how human, social, economic, and environmental systems interact over time.

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Bilateral and multilateral relationship data

Pardee also builds datasets, analytical tools, and methods for studying bilateral and multilateral relationships. By measuring political, diplomatic, economic, security, and cultural ties between countries, this work helps make international system dynamics more visible. Some datasets and tools are integrated with IFs; others stand alone as public research infrastructure.

Explore Diplometrics datasets

With IFs, users can examine how assumptions, trends, and policy choices may shape development, climate, governance, and international systems over time.

Follow our work

Building a more knowable future and sharing what we find is core to our mission. Explore recent news, events, and publications to see how Pardee’s research is being used across academic, policy, and public conversations.

News & Events

Stay current on Pardee research, events, partnerships, and opportunities to engage with our team.

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Publications

Pardee publications make our research, assumptions, and findings available for scrutiny and use. Explore reports, briefs, journal articles, working papers, and model documentation.

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Help support a global community working toward a more knowable future

Pardee’s open tools, research, and training resources support students, researchers, policymakers, and practitioners around the world. Your gift helps keep that work accessible and strengthens the public research infrastructure behind it.

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Stay connected with Pardee

Follow Pardee research, publications, events, and tools that help people reason more clearly about possible futures.

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