Russia benefits from climate change, Stimson Center’s Burrows and Pardee’s Meisel find

By: Wara Irfan

While many experts forecast Russia’s long-term decline amid economic stagnation and isolation from the West, a new collaboration between the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures and the Stimson Center suggests a more complex and contingent future. In a recent commentary titled “Why Russia Isn’t Doomed” for The National Interest, Collin Meisel, director of analysis at the Pardee Institute, and Mathew Burrows, counselor at the Stimson Center, reveal that strategic realignment towards Asia, investment in Arctic infrastructure, and potential climate-related gains may sustain the Russia’s geopolitical relevance in the decades ahead. 

This commentary previews a few key insights from the Russia Futures 2035 project, a collaborative research effort between the Pardee Institute and the Stimson Center. Both organizations bring deep geopolitical expertise to forecast Russia’s future under various scenarios. In addition to contributing scenario modeling through the International Futures (IFs) platform, Pardee draws on its broader expertise in forecasting. By translating qualitative scenarios into modeled outcomes, this project aims to inform strategic planning for the U.S. administration and its allies as they navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding Russia. The full report will be published this summer. 

Among the preliminary findings revealed in their recent commentary for The National Interest, the authors note several structural advantages that may bolster Russia’s future standing despite its current isolation. Russia has created an alternative economic lifeline through its long-standing pivot to the East, deepened by infrastructure links and energy trade with China. Favorable public opinion in countries like India, ongoing diplomatic efforts within BRICS (a growing intergovernmental organization originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), and a recent treaty with North Korea are all contributing to the expansion of Russia’s influence in a shifting global order. Climate change may further benefit Russia by expanding arable land, increasing agricultural yields, particularly in the country’s northwest. 

However, Burrows and Meisel also point to vulnerabilities. Sustained conflict in Ukraine, declining technological capacity, and the emigration of educated and skilled youth may constrain Russia’s long-term development. Despite having immense renewable energy potential, structural barriers, such as the absence of a countrywide carbon pricing system, could hinder Russia’s ability to capitalize on its clean energy potential. While trade with China is booming, growing dependence on Beijing creates strategic vulnerabilities. Rising defense spending may further constrain social and economic development. Without meaningful reform or resolution of conflict, Russia may be unable to convert its latent strengths into lasting geopolitical gains. 

With novel and specific insights into how Russia’s future could unfold under different global conditions, stakeholders of this project, like the U.S. and its allies, can adjust their positioning to better neutralize these potential gains and even leverage them for economic and security gains of their own.